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You've missed a massive one:

5. Oracle bought the company that provides the software we use

Oracle databases are almost irrelevant, it's the vast array of business and data applications that cause all the licence issues and also form by far the largest expense. Many companies buy a market leading application that meets their needs only for Oracle to buy the supplier of that software a few years down the line.

It's still market leading, the teams using it have built their processes around and within it, replacing it would be a substantial and painful process. Dealing with LMS tends to be easier, and also becomes an IT expense rather than one for the business department that would have to fund a replacement.

This is why Oracle are so frantic to push their cloud services. If their customers buy SaaS from a competitor then Oracle can't play these games - even if Oracle bought someone like Salesforce or ServiceNow, customers can more easily extricate themselves and also have much simpler licence positions that LMS can't so easily find holes in.