Re: A common and well established error ...
.. among people who comment on the internet is that they think that they can (a) spot really obvious things that - somehow - have never, ever occurred to those with relevant expertise; and, further, they think (b) that even if those experts had spotted the obvious thing, they would not ever think of understanding their work with that in mind.
Of course in the "criminals" context, it tends to be quite hard to study the behaviours of people that you cannot find, cannot catch, and who would rather avoid attention or examination of any kind. So sometimes you just have to work within the data you can get; and understand the results in full knowledge of that.