Re: Sanofi
"Can't help wondering how much this is due to the Sanofi vaccine falling over."
In the short term, very much so as it puts the EU down 300 m doses and slows the production ramp up.
In terms of production in Belgium, it's more a case of increasing capacity than production problems. Yields are lower than initially expected across all vaccine producers but AZ took correct steps in late 2020.
Production wise, the UK is relying on EU production facilities to reach capacity so playing silly games with imports/exports will likely win silly prizes.
However, the EU does need to play nicely - they have around 15% of the 2020 vaccine allocation with only 3% of the world's population so trying to get greedy doesn't look good.
The UK is likely to have more vaccine than it needs (assuming minimal difference effectiveness versus different strains) so there may have been an opportunity for the EU to make up for a slow start with higher volumes in Q3/Q4.
Only now there will be much more scrutiny of where any excess doses may go to.