Reply to post: Re: Long-term view

'Following the science' rhetoric led to delay to UK COVID-19 lockdown, face mask rules

hoola Silver badge

Re: Long-term view

To those downvoting:

I have not said that restrictions should be lifted or that lockdowns don't work. I have put the two main ways in which Covid can be managed. I have not said that just letting the virus to run uncontrolled was acceptable. This is contrasted with some countries that have been able, due to they way they are governed, to have a very highly controlled lockdown that appears to have been very effective.

Here, we have been in and out of differing levels of restrictions and lockdowns without really making much progress.

What I am suggesting is that the way the restrictions and lockdowns have been handled and the loose compliance with them is helping the virus to mutate overtime. We now have a new, much more contagious strain that may have evolved as a result of the poor handling of the situation from the start. We are neither cutting it off as the Chinese did in Wuhan or let it run as the Swedes attempted to do (and have failed) with minimal restrictions .

Bluntly, if one's aim is to control the virus the only thing that appears to have worked is a draconian lockdown. Unfortunately for most countries that approach is not acceptable however a lockdown still only suppresses the virus. As soon as there is a reinfection then you are back to the start. As the virus cannot be eradicated that leaves immunity as the only option, in this case mostly provided by a vaccine. We should also note a vaccine does not stop the virus, merely reduces the impact on people who become infected with Covid. Currently the way forward is for a vaccine to reduce the severity of the illness so that the number of critical cases reduced to a manageable level. In the longer term there may be a true vaccine like those for Measles or Smallpox but the likelihood is that the Covid response is going to be one of subtly tweaked revaccinations as it evolves over time. Hopefully, in the end it can be combined with the flu vaccine with maybe a wider coverage in younger age groups.

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