What happens when...
One of the world’s top economies... heavily dependent on semiconductors is told that no one in the world is allowed to sell them semiconductors?
The easy answer is, they invest massive amounts of money, time and resources to never need to buy semiconductors from another country.
Then they build up enough manufacturing ability to produce semiconductors for every other country who doesn’t like the impending threat of being cut off.
Then they do it for a lower cost than any other country.
Then they weaponize their capacity and use extensive government grants to economically attack countries like Taiwan... after all, why not simply give semiconductors away for free until TSMC can no longer afford to keep their doors open?
Of course, in order to stay competitive, that country will innovate as well. They will make sure they’re not just competitive, but after throwing money at racing to equal with publicly traded companies in the US and Taiwan, they will have a momentum already in place to also surpass them.
So what happens when someone makes a decision that threatens many of China’s largest and most influential companies and treats them like this? You think if Biden gives a little and agrees to sell them chips again that China will just stop their almost space race like efforts to become entirely independent?