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Bill Gates lays out a three-point plan to rid the world of COVID-19 – and anti-vaxxer cranks aren't gonna like it

Anonymous Coward
Boffin

First of all the fatality rate has manifestly been well about 0.1%, as you would know if you could do the maths. A fatality rate of 0.1% would imply that about 328,000 people would die in the US if everyone got it: in other words if R0 had some extremely high value. More than 200,000 people have already died in the US, and I don't know what R0 is estimated to be, but I don't think it's that high. More to the point, statistical testing would reveal about how many people have had it in the US, and if the proportion was anywhere near high enough competent people would not be worrying about lockdowns &c (by 'competent people' I mean the scientists, not the US administration of course). Further, as the effective reproduction rate drops to and below 1 then the time constants go up, as you would also know if you could do the maths. So we would not be seeing sudden increased in case rates, which we are.

All these arguments go for the UK as well.

One answer is that 'oh well the fatality rate was much higher but now it is lower because we now know how to keep people alive'. That is true to some extent I am sure. But keeping them alive costs money, and that is money we would not have to spend if they did not get ill.

And finally the whole 'oh, the fatality rate is low' thing is just another instance of idiot single-bit thinking. You don't either die or recover completely. Many people do not die but recover very slowly and perhaps do not recover completely at all. I knew people who did not die of polio, but they had limited lives because of it. Indeed, I suffer from a disease which has not killed me, and probably will not kill me, but means I can't work and am occasionally essentially bed-ridden for a week. I would really like not to have this disease, even though it probably will not kill me. Fatality rate is a completely useless measure of the human cost of the disease.

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