Re: Good reason not to upgrade
"But in general that's not how ads work"
The entire advertising industry is geared to not discovering whether it is or not. Believing that they only work positively is the state religion of marketing.
"there's a non-zero chance you'll chose the one you saw in an ad"
Believe me, I've made deliberate choices based on advertising/marketing intrusiveness many times.
All TV viewing is pre-recorded and ads skipped so they tend to get a free pass on that these days.
The offenders who tend to get through are marketing departments of businesses who I've dealt with. I've changed insurers because of spam. When my wife's car was due for renewal I blacklisted the dealer from whom my car was bought because within about a month of selling me a new car they started bombarding me with texts to replace it!