Re: Still confused as to how this app makes the slighest bit of difference..
> Ah yes, those Imperial College models. The ones created by actual epidemiologists and mathematicians. They're wrong because some anonymous crank says they are. Of course, how silly of me
Actually the Imperial models were complete wrong ( read the post postmortems) because they used R0 values that had no basic even in the very early preliminary clinical data. They used what is know in the trade as made up numbers. As were the IFR's in their models.
The first reliable data that gave a good indication of the IFR of SARs CoV 2 was published in the International Journal of Infectious Disease by South Korea researcher on MARCH 12'TH. A bunch more papers published in the following few weeks filled out the data from South Korea and gave a very good indication of the asymptomatic infection rate so thats why the IFR has now stabilized around 0.2%/0.3%. Same as other HCOV's.
Its funny how the people who have actually read the relevant scientific literature are the "cranks" and those who seem to have zero familiarity with the literature are the ones who know the "truth". If you actually read the literature you will soon discover that not one single public health measure enforced since March in countries like the UK can be supported by the published literature. Or almost 150 years of epidemiology.
Its all political theater. Nothing else. Driven by media lead mass hysteria. Those countries that followed the actual science just concentrated on those high risk people ( old people with high CURB-65 scores) and took some proportionate and reasonable public health measures. They have had low novel virus severe pneumonia deaths so far.
You do know that Ferguson at Imperial has form for getting it completely wrong. Back when the Mad Cow disease hysteria was starting he came out with a model that said up to 136,000 people were going to die. Had to be true. He had big fancy academic titles and used lots of fancy equations. Final toll for Mad Cow Disease, a few dozen who did not have a rare genetic condition. A hundred or two who did. And they still cant explain how "prions" (proteins) were supposed to cause the disease nCJD in the first place
Just because some people use fancy math means zero. If the math is wrong. Every time. Just ask the guys who priced all those fancy derivatives at Lehman Brothers in 2007 how their pricing models based on even even fancier math than Imperial (and with the mathematicians money could buy) worked out.
Heard of GIGO?
Biting the hand that feeds IT
