Re: Bluetooth? Really?
Surely this is all about the r number - it's not perfect, but then waiting for a perfect sytem isn't really an option. If wearing masks takes R from 1 to .85 wear a mask. If track and trace takes that R from .85 to .65 then track and trace. At an R of 1 we have to live (or die!) with this virus for ever. If we* model a group of 1000 infected people assuming you are infectious for 10 days, at 0.85 we 'eliminate' the virus in 460 days. At 0.65 we eliminate it in 160 days. At 0.5 its gone by day 100.
If you look at numbers infected/dying agter a year assuming about 2.5% die, with an initial group of 1000 at R 1 it's 37000/925, at r 0.85 6650/166, at 0.65 it's 2860/70 and at r 0.5 it would be 2000/50.
Quite small changes in r drop deaths significantly. a drop from 1 to 0.99 would drop deaths seeded by 1000 initial cases from 925 to 775 - so that's 150 lives saved by some trivial action. scaled to current Uk cases that might 1% drop in R would equate to 6000 fewer deaths.
*IANAE
Biting the hand that feeds IT
