Re: Fall of empires (and civilization too?)
Thanks! Parts of it are indeed close to conspiracy theories. Parts of it are down to basic modelling, though.
Create a flow chart with the various outcomes at various stages in the process. Look at actions from the last four years how the various actors (government departments, courts, political parties, the media, Trump himself, the Attorney General, the House, the Senate etc.) have behaved when they were faced with a similar juncture and use it to inform the likelihood of them behaving similarly at each potential outcome in the process. That leaves at least two or three outcomes with above 5% probability that are quite worrying for the stability of the country.