Re: The Oxford paper doesn't say 60% is really enough
Fortunately, someone has considered the fact that fatalities are not a percentage of the whole population. The elderly and those with know underlying medical conditions that make them significantly more susceptible are being shielded or encouraged to be better isolated. Nursing homes are becoming a problem because the isolation in place (to date) has been insufficient - and with the majority of residents in the more susceptible category, once the virus is present in sufficient numbers, it has tragic effects. However, the overall effect is still that it doesn't imply 1m deaths to obtain herd immunity (i.e. ongoing infections will remain localised, in the main).
It's already been written that releasing the lockdown before there has been an effective testing and vaccination programme, the effect will be to maintain ongoing infections, but at a level that doesn't overwhelm the NHS, etc. Lockdown until, say, mid 2021 or accept that there will be more fatalities. The biggest cause of death is, of course, birth - all statistics regarding individual risks of death end up at 1. We will all die - but we don't want that to be just yet.
For me and the missus, the lockdown isn't really a problem as we already live fairly isolated lives; it just stops unwanted relatives calling on us to check we're still OK.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
