Is this really Trump and the trade tariffs?
- There's an oversupply of memory/flash at present due to new processes with more layers/higher capacities
- 2019 was expected to be an above average year due to end of life of Windows 7
- AMD's competitiveness means that Intel have dropped prices on older (and faster) CPU's. AMD Zen CPU prices in Q2 were ridiculously good compared to what had been on offer for the previous 18 months.
Only one of those was really expected (the Win7 EoL) and given the steady decline in PC sales, I would have thought that these changes (including tariffs) would have compressed likely 2019 spend rather than significantly boosted the overall 2019 spend. While it may have dragged some 2020 spend forward, 2020 will be a dramatic slump with or without tariffs.
And as for the 2023 numbers, I think IDC are dreaming...