Reply to post: Re: Success rate

Roscomos: We know all about how the hole in the Soyuz went down, but we're not telling you


Re: Success rate

And you’re judging success by anticipated potential for discovery, which is just another subjective metric entirely based on unknowns. You cannot even offer a quantitative measure, just a probabilistic one.

The rover weighs 27kg and has a design life of 14 days . The orbiter has a 2300kg weight and had an original design life of 1 year, since extended to almost 7 years due to the high precision of orbit injection . The lander got within a few hundred metres of lunar soil under perfect control before fine braking failed, having gotten that far with much greater accuracy than hoped for.

Their relative weights and design lives offer a clue to their relative importance. While the rover might have been a great discoverer, it was never designed for much. The orbiter was and remains the main payload carrier and its own projected life has been enhanced almost an order of magnitude. The ISRO has very good cause to claim whatever percentage of success they chose to state .

In related news, Mangalyaan-1 has completed 5 years in Mars orbit days ago, far more than its original goal, for similar reasons.

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