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Not missing the point at all, fact is that the number of VPN users is dwarfed by the number of chrome (and by extension chromium based browsers) and firefox users, DoH will be an automatic default for those users, hence a much bigger problem than VPN's; as VPNs have to be activly setup, where as DoH would be a passive setup

If their is a crack down on commercial VPN providers then it will only be a formalisation of existing law forcing them to provide logs on court order, and if they did overstep the mark then users will configure their own or just run a vpn box on aws hosted in a US region, lifehacker will have dozens or articles on how to set it up. It would be impossible to ban or even regulate VPN's as the economic damage would be to great, inter office comms made illegal, secure transport of patient records between hospital and surgery gone, etc.

The fundamental flaw in the "they will ban vpns" argument is that its like saying "Ban roads to stop drivers speeding" a VPN is a transport, DNS is a protocol, legislating against traffic is a wholly different proposition to legislating on how the traffic is carried, regulating DoH is much more like saying mini moto bikes are not road legal and are not allowed on the roads (but their is nothing we can do stop people from doing that of they dont get caught). The real govt (civil service, not the who do you want lying to you popularity contest winners going for the click bait think of the children attention grabbers arguments) fear in my opinion is a ceding of control of domestic surveillance to the NSA as both the major infrastructure providers are US companies and accepting what ever evidence you gain may have been altered as it didnt come from your direct tap...

Interesting you mention the pr0n farce, fully agree with you, if and when it comes into effect (i also believe as currently intended is utterly impossible) it will only effect those that pay for porn online, and what comes into effect will be so watered down as to be effectively optional