It isn't happening until...
It isn't happening until it is. This is similar to the way Microsoft took many years and multiple failed attempts to migrate its own accounting system from AS/400 to Windows Server. Amazon is similarly motivated to move its own databases from Oracle to its own. It won't happen overnight, and there will likely be some failed attempts, but eventually it's going to happen.
Oracle can absolutely count on losing Amazon as a customer. Oracle's focus should be on providing a better cloud-connected database than the one Amazon has.