Reply to post: Re: "Where is the evidence to suggest that would happen?"

Re: "Where is the evidence to suggest that would happen?"

I thought that the Good Friday Agreement led to the Provisional IRA putting their arms beyond use. My understanding is that free movement throughout Ireland and Northern Ireland (i.e. no hard border) was one of the key provisions that persuaded them.

That's a somewhat naive interpretation. IRA support was aready falling by the end of the 80's, even the people who supported their alleged aims (a United Ireland) were disgusted by their tactics. When the US started to treat them as terrorists instead of freedom fightrs (under a Democrat president, no less) they had to cut their losses. Sinn Fein have been attached to the "ballot box & armalite" strategy since at least the early 80s, and Adams realized it was time to put the armalites away for a while. The look on his face as he agreed to the Good Friday agreement was a picture, like hed been sucking lemons, but he had little choice.

As for free movement, the UK and Ireland have had a common travel area with freedom of residence, work, voting, etc. since the Republic broke away. As a child I remember the pre-troubles border posts, but apart from the need to have a special sticker for the car to show that all tax was apid they were irrelevant for ordinary folks. Less so perhaps for business, but they certainly didn't process every vehicle and even today there are still customs agents who perform spot checks on commercial vehicles.

But if the shit hits the fan, it will have been entirely forseeable as to why.

They've rarely needed an excuse, and they will no doubt find one if they want to, but the current generation who grew up with the recentTroubles are much less likely to let it slide back, especially now that the world as a whole is much more aware of terrorism and it's excuses.