Reply to post: Betting against Elon Musk?

First SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5 rocket lobs comms sat into orbit

Tom Paine Silver badge
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Betting against Elon Musk?

I'll take that bet.

The BFR will never launch. There, I said it.

Yeah, I know, I didn't think flying the first stage back to the launch site would be possible either, but BFR is another couple of orders of magnitude of nuts. Hint: calculate the mass of propellant it will carry at launch, vs that of other boosters. Consider the size of the bang if it cooks up on the pad or shortly after takeoff.

Consider too the total lack of any commercial demand for such a vehicle, outside the (and this is where I really start to puck up the downvotes! :) ) outside the community of, er, enthusiasts who've watched a bit too much Star Trek and think it's humanity's religious duty to colonise uninhabitable planets in the name of Techtopia or some such. Yeah, I know, eventually an asteroid will wipe us out. Boo fucking hoo. If we move to Mars the sun will wipe us out (if we somehow conquer evolutionary biology and last longer than the typical 2my lifetime of a species.

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