Re: Not a zero sum game...
AdamT,
Sure, SpaceX will almost certainly bring new customers into the market by lowering prices. If there's something to do via satellite that's only marginally profitable now, then it could become so with $20m lower launch costs. But it will take big price drops for that to matter much, given that even a £100m launch cost is less than the $400m satellite. Figures picked out of thin air, for illustrative purposes only...
But that doesn't help Boeing if they are still charging around $100-$200m per launch - when SpaceX are currently around $60m + some discount if you take a second-hand rocket. They said in a press conference a while ago that this would be no more than 30% off. Because if SpaceX can ramp up capacity, and stay reliable, they can steal all of Boeing/ULA's customers. As well as hoovering up the shiny new ones.
I don't know how many parts any of these rockets share, but I don't think it's any at all. So I doubt that an increase in volume of SpaceX production helps anybody else. Obviously if everyone sells more, then everyone gets economies of scale. Worst-case though is SpaceX alone get the increase, they get the economies of scale, become cheaper and it becomes a virtuous circle. Plus extra death-spiral for everyone else.
Especially if the BFR turns out to be all it's cracked up to be.
Boeing would be better served by talking a lot less shit, and getting more shit done.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
