Reply to post: Re: Tougher sanctions

Ex-GCHQ boss: All the ways to go after Russia. Why pick cyberwar?

I ain't Spartacus Gold badge

Re: Tougher sanctions

Who says that's all that's going to happen?

I'm sure we won't be going too much further. There's not much we can do that doesn't have bad consequences we want to avoid.

We'll try to use the OPCW - as this would be an undeclared stockpile. Apparently the point of these novichok was supposedly about using pre-cursor chemicals that weren't on the prohibited list. Though I don't know why, as the Soviet Union had access to oil, so ought to have been able to make its own - as it did with other chemical weapons they held. But that could lead to investigations and maybe be a reason for / excuse for sanctions that are sector specific.

We could also have some diplomatic fun-and-games trying to pin some of the blame for Syrian chemical attacks on Russia. The Russians had a big presence at that airbase that Trump attacked with missiles after a chemical attack last year. Supposedly it was launched from there, in which case the Russians may have known about it, or even been assisting.

All that is important as it's not something you announce as a retaliation - but we probably need to try and redraw the red lines on use of chemical weapons. Letting Syria get away with it was always a bad idea, and trying to build some international consensus on this to deter future use would be a sensible diplomatic aim. But that's effort that will take years, and long diplomatic discussions and working groups.

Also she talked about hunting down Russian state money. This might not be a threat, it might be hard to impossible. Or the UK government may choose to do nothing. But this is where spies and maybe the odd cyber attack could be helpful. Many of the people around Putin are already under sanctions because of Ukraine. If we put a team of MI6, police and GCHQ people on hunting their money we could seriously upset them - in a way that would personally hurt and be very hard to publicly retaliate for. This would be one of the best avenues to pursue - but is not going to be public, or bear fruit for months/years.

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