Re: One word:
No so much incompetence, but they make mistakes - everyone does. So I would believe that they got lucky on a mistake.
On the other side, the NSA benefits from mistakes other people make. This is why having a thorough collection program is so important - you pick up on lots of mistakes and are thus able to collect lots of valuable information. Thus, these places require "plodders" rather than brilliant 'leet h4ckors...