I think it's pretty clear which way this is going to go.
The endpoint is in America, i.e. Microsoft or the User whose data they are trying to get are in America. Sure, the data is in Ireland but it originated in America and was moved by an American company off-shore so they can order that company to bring it back through a warrant.
Do I agree with this? No, but I don't see it going any other way.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
