Re: "In 10 years it is possible that some very short-haul aircraft might be flying"
Thing is, you're making a VERY big assumption with (b), given that battery tech has been about as stuck in terms of innovation as hydrocarbon fuel for similarly long lengths of time. Point is that one cannot assume battery tech will continue to get better any more than one can assume fuel tech can get any better. There are even signs that we're hitting physical limitations regarding increasing energy capacity (burning Li-Ion batteries being a warning sign).