Reply to post:

NAND that's that... Flash chip industry worth twice disk drive biz

Alan Brown Silver badge

"The only way for the disk drive vendors to lower their cost/bit and preserve a price gap is to increase areal density by adopting shingled (slower write-performing media) and HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) and so drive to 20-30TB drives"

Except that SSD is likely to beat them to it.

WRT price, the driving factor at the moment is availability. Demand is outstripping supply and fabs are being built to try and play catchup. Unlike spinning rust, there are multiple fabs churning out NAND.

(In the HDD world, there is only one maker of heads and one maker of platters. It's been like that since around 2002. Seagate and WD buy the same parts and use their own secret sauce to build a drive around those ingredients - but it means that where one goes the other will be in lockstep as large shingled platters and HAMR will arrive at the same time for both)

Spinning rust prices have been fairly static for a long time. Pre-2011 Thai floods I was paying less than $80 for 2TB with a five year warranty. Prices have only _just_ returned to that level with only 1 or 3 year warranties.

Yes there will be consolidation in the market. There already has been, but what we won't see is the return of the DRAMurai cartel dictating prices (mainly because the chinese market regulators won't tolerate it)

POST COMMENT House rules

Not a member of The Register? Create a new account here.

  • Enter your comment

  • Add an icon

Anonymous cowards cannot choose their icon