Re: Contention ratios are poor guide to congestion
> we ARE seeing articles about the growing level of dissatisfaction with the under-performing NBN everywhere
Agreed that we are seeing disatisfaction. The articles I've been reading all describe the issues as speed degrading in peak hour periods. This indicates a congestion issue caused by RSPs purchasing inadequate CVC for unlimited quota plans. RSPs like Aussie Broadband that don't offer unlimited plans are receiving rave reviews for performance.
> Yes - SOME people on FTTN are seeing 80 Mbps (the lucky ones who won "Node Lotto"), but the vast majority are not. In fact, most people are signing up for 12 Mbps or 25 Mbps services, and the RSPs are down-grading them to those speeds
First lets address the speed issue. In nbn™ Fibre to the Node explained (FTTN) states that "Not all speeds greater than nbn™ 25 are available at all premises." Therefore we can conclude that FTTN will adequately meet the needs of > 80% of Australians.
This is the minimum and What Fibre To The Node technology will deliver for Australia describes real world experience:
"Our recent FTTN trials up in Belmont, NSW saw end-users within 400 metres of the cabinet getting speeds of up to 100Mbps/40Mbps – even end-users located over 700 metres from the cabinet were still getting speeds of over 60Mbps/20Mbps."
In nbn™ technology 101: What is FTTN? states that "Roughly two-thirds of end users will be within 400 metres of the nearest FTTN cabinet."
I would prefer some independently verified data, but based on what is available, I consider if reasonable to state that if due to the variability in FTTN performance due to copper line length NBNCo removed the speed tiers that the average FTTN speed would be significantly higher than the average FTTP speed.
I'm confused as to why are RSPs downgrading customers when >80% are selecting 25Mbps or slower. A few customers may be downgraded from 100Mbps because they cannot reach the full speed, but that simply supports my argument that removing speed tiers would enable those customers to at least reach the potential of their connection. NBNCo's speed tiers remind me of when Telstra had a monopoly on ADSL and the fastest conneciton was 1.5Mbps even on lines capable of >20Mbps.
Of course I would fully understand customers downgrading to 25Mbps because unlimited plans and inadquate CVC purchases by RSPs has resulted in congestion at peak hour which makes paying for faster speeds of diminishing value.
> Did you miss the fact that this week all the major RSPs have stopped advertising their services as "up to 25 Mbps", but are now referring to "between 5 and 12 Mbps"
The wording change has been applied to all NBN plans regardless of technology. This is being pushed by ACCC speed investigations which I expect will show congestion exists.