Reply to post: I have no problems and I must scream!

AI bots will kill us all! Or at least may seriously inconvenience humans

Destroy All Monsters Silver badge
Facepalm

I have no problems and I must scream!

"I have exposure to the most cutting edge AI and I think people should be really concerned about it,"

Stop talking to Eliza, dude.

Meanwhile actually content-holding discussion:

Human-Level AI Is Right Around the Corner—or Hundreds of Years Away

Ray Kurzweil, Rodney Brooks, and others weigh in on the future of artificial intelligence

Rodney Brooks (Chairman and CTO, Rethink Robotics) says (and that's a guy who REALLY sees cutting-edge AI):

"When will we have computers as capable as the brain?"

Rodney Brooks’s revised question: When will we have computers/robots recognizably as intelligent and as conscious as humans?

Not in our lifetimes, not even in Ray Kurzweil’s lifetime, and despite his fervent wishes, just like the rest of us, he will die within just a few decades. It will be well over 100 years before we see this level in our machines. Maybe many hundred years.

"As intelligent and as conscious as dogs?"

Maybe in 50 to 100 years. But they won’t have noses anywhere near as good as the real thing. They will be olfactorily challenged dogs.

"How will brainlike computers change the world?"

Since we won’t have intelligent computers like humans for well over 100 years, we cannot make any sensible projections about how they will change the world, as we don’t understand what the world will be like at all in 100 years. (For example, imagine reading Turing’s paper on computable numbers in 1936 and trying to pro­ject out how computers would change the world in just 70 or 80 years.) So an equivalent well-grounded question would have to be something simpler, like “How will computers/robots continue to change the world?” Answer: Within 20 years most baby boomers are going to have robotic devices in their homes, helping them maintain their independence as they age in place. This will include Ray Kurzweil, who will still not be immortal.

"Do you have any qualms about a future in which computers have human-level (or greater) intelligence?"

No qualms at all, as the world will have evolved so much in the next 100+ years that we cannot possibly imagine what it will be like, so there is no point in qualming. Qualming in the face of zero facts or understanding is a fun parlor game but generally not useful. And yes, this includes Nick Bostrom.

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