"The problem is that statistics can be screwed"
Even perfect statistics are useless when you try to predict a single event, without having a clear enough comprehension of the mechanism underlying the event - a theory (and its validation).
So you just look at how a new element fits inside the statistical distribution, and where it places, without understanding why, and you assume that's true just because your own algorithm says so.
That's something that comes from the "science" of economics, which is still unable to deliver real theories (and their proofs), and so builds on statistical data, and delivers wild and often wrong predictions, but most pretend it works because they make money on it.
If it works so well, I don't understand how bookmakers make so much money betting on the fact people won't be able to predict single events with the required accuracy... despite all the stats available.