>> (think Bill Gates), and THEN went on to become highly successful engineers
Gates isn't an engineer he's a businessman. Do you REALLY imagine that he spent his time at Microsoft writing software himself?
>> An experienced programmer (without a degree) is AT LEAST as likely
Sorry but you're wrong. I was an experienced programmer before I got my CS degree, and I can tell you that without a good knowledge of Computer Science, you're only ever actually going to be a second-rate hacker, no matter how good you believe yourself to be.
Also, and possibly more importantly, you won't understand the thinking/rationale behind many things you'll see in other people's code that you'll have to fix, maintain and extend.