Re: Amazing that somehow only Samsung was affected
"The answer they've given is clearly an educated guess"
You're forgetting most of those phones have now been recalled. It's a fairly straighforward process to semi-automate the battery removal and X-ray of each and every battery for analysis, then look for differences, and build up statisical data. Pretty much everything is a 'known' retrospectively.
It's not an educated guess at all. If you want an answer here, you can have one. Samsung have created a convenient story here, it's all about money and reputation, obfuscation.