>And you forget the only thing that matters: Germany needs to export to the UK. Their auto industry will be rioting if the EU insists on tariffs.
You massively underestimate Germany's capacity to adapt - West Germany took a 3 trillion Euro hit when it welcomed East Germany at unification and did so, broadly speaking, happily. Secondly German cars are an expensive, status option - they might reduce their prices a little, but UK consumers will pay a larger premium or maybe just keep cars a couple of months longer before upgrade. Thirdly the German manufacturers, notably VAG, are currently absorbing fines and other costs post-emissions fraud which dwarf potential tariffs.
>I'm getting the popcorn in.
You'll notice a 20% price hike if it's Joe & Seph's - sugar import cost up 10% and butter's up 50p a kilo too since October.