Re: > while older and especially retired people voted to leave.
I was confused by some preliminary stats I heard this morning on Irish radio.
People 18 to 24 ---- 54 % voted to leave
People 24 to 45 --- 48 % voted to leave
People 45 - above 35 % voted to leave
Like the referendum results, pretty much the opposite of what everyone expected. But it turned out this report was just plain wrong.
Assuming we can still trust ANY pollsters.
Because they also got it wrong.
So did the markets.
In sum, pretty much everyone got it wrong.
Even LeFarage conceded there would be a narrow Leave defeat last night.
For me, the most revealing info is that the regions with the less educated, less affluent, and mostly ignored (Scotland, England) populations are the ones who voted to Leave. And this time they tipped the balance.
Could that be the real message?
i.e.,: all the King's horses and all the King's men could not turn the vote around to a "correct" result.
Dave is stepping down, and a large number of British voters ignored everyone from Eddie Izard and Obama to the World Bank. Sounds like the people have spoken.
Peasant's revolt? Brave new world? One thing is certain, the trend is often your friend. With people like Trump, Marine Le Pen in the wings and (Sinn Fein now braying for re-unification) this could be just the beginning of a very interesting era.
One where a resentful, increasingly significant hoi polloi no longer believes that large organisations (like the EU) and incumbent elites are actually looking out for their best interests. Where they organise, vote and ally with people who speak their language.
This is unlikely to change until the marble holders actually change economic fundamentals by:
a) spending more money on local infrastructure, relevant education and job creation
b) cutting down on regulations
c) cutting down on national debt
d) improving productivity and promoting sensible investment
e) replace the robotic sector with real jobs and opportunities, instead of more welfare.
I struggle to see much evidence of the above within the EU or the US. The precariat is getting restless.
So the lackluster post-recession growth (0 to 2% pa) we are seeing worldwide is unlikely to improve soon. The old techniques of borrowing and printing more money, and creating jobs for the boys simply aren't working anymore. Instead we are creating less jobs (or increasing underemployment) and fuelling negative interest rates. The only thing missing here is bread and circuses.
From a historic and economic standpoint, this is completely fucked up. The elites don't know how to fix it, and many prefer to just cream more off the top. And meanwhile, entire generations are being sucked downwards into an ever-widening economic sinkhole. Sustain that.
I have no love for populists like Trump and Lafarge. But they are now driving a large bus full of increasingly discontented people, so perhaps it is time for a solid rethink (or reboot). Revolutions are rarely recognized in their own time.