Re: LEAVE EU would actually STAY in the EEA
The EU can't afford to get into a trade war with the UK any more that we'd want to get into a trade war with the EU
I would like to hope so should we end up leaving, and the leave campaign seem to be banking on it, but I am not so confident, especially if we drift further apart in the future, which seems more likely than not.
I do imagine Germany and France will want to keep things sweet until they are back in control of the game; which was exactly what happened over Greece. Once the EU have secured their position it will matter far less what Britain chooses to do; like Greece we will lose what leverage we had.
I actually expect it will be Britain which derails any relationship with the EU which remains, arrogantly insisting they must do as the UK says, with the EU finally having enough of that and casting us adrift.