Reply to post: Re: Statisics...

Linux Mint hacked: Malware-infected ISOs linked from official site

Anonymous Coward
Anonymous Coward

Re: Statisics...

> To have TWO bombs on board worked out to be 1 in 10000000,

I realise it's a joke, but he should have paid more attention in statistics class and he would have known about the dangers of falsely assuming events to be independent.

In fact, if there is one bomb on board, the not unreasonable assumption is that the attacker will have slipped a back-up in case plan A did not work. Or in the case of land-based attacks, to finish off the job, e.g., by placing a second device at the expected gathering point of the crowds fleeing the first deflagration.

A proper statistician would have taken those circumstances into account.

I would have let the joke run, but there have been serious consequences to real people¹ because of this misinterpretation.

¹ Powerpoint file.

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