Re: The iOS MAC randomization wouldn't help here
As near as I can tell (from one data point so far), this is correct: my iPhone's current MAC address, when I'm home, reports the address I have hard-coded into my access point for a MAC address-based ACL. Some pooh-pooh that sort of security, but I reckon it's one more thing an intruder in a WiFi-network-rich environment doesn't need to deal with if my neighbo[u]rs' networks are more welcoming.
And it is also true, here in the Sates at least, that the police are much more interested in finding stolen mobile/electronic devices in general in the first 24 - 48 hours, since they know the chances beyond that are slim to none.
And finally, it is rare that thieves are after anything less than the latest model mobile device. Their discerning tastes are driven by the same market factors as "legitimate" sales: new drives out old.