Reply to post: The future of MS-OS.

The future of MS-OS.

How I see the future of Microsoft from the actions of the past, the present and the near future.

Since Windows 3.x, MS had charged typical OEMs and upgraders about $100. (MS-DOS6 + Win3 = $90~95). They had command of the PC market because of the clone business, unfortunately. Otherwise most of us would be using Amigas today, considering it took MS over 10 years to even equal AmigaOS is some ways with WindowsXP. So since the early 90s, MS has controlled over 90% of the desktop business. This gave them control of the internet in many ways and office suites.

Every few years, new OS versions came out, with more requirements, more features, etc. Think about how much OS-X has changed since 2000 vs. MS-Windows... which had 6 radical changes is OS skin/operations while OS-X looks very much the same as it always has... and STILL more polished looking than Windows. But that doesn't matter, they own the market.

iPhone and Android changed the game on MS big time in ways we and microsoft didn't see coming. When the iPad was launched successfully around 2010, Steve Ballmer said "Its a fad" - yet look at what the first MS-branded computer is... A TABLET! Windows 7 was new to the market and selling well.

The use of phones and tablets by the masses showed the faults of Windows and MS-OS's history. In that the common person NEVER LIKED their shitty products. More difficult to use than they should be. Not state of the art quality programming of features. As my clients bought tablets - they STOPPED buying notebooks. I rarely ever work on anyone's notebook computer. I use my phone as a computer far more than my own ThinkPad.

While MS commands about 95% of the OS market for DESKTOP - the sales of desktops have been going down drastically, with PC companies like Dell, HP and others dropping like flies. Why? Because the overall user base has changed - with MS controlling about 20% of the OS market overall with Android then Apple in charge.

My wife rarely ever uses her notebook, but has gone through 4 phones since we've meet. That $700 Samsung Note Edge is a sale that HP or Dell or Lenovo didn't get (Okay, I would have built her a new PC desktop or bought a notebook). Hell, the screen resolution on her phone is higher than any of our Thinkpads. Thus, MS didn't make a dime... other than the BS scam they get from Android sales.

The MS solution was Windows 8. Its dumbed down for the masses, which made it difficult to use in business and for techs. The plan is actually good, or at least sounded good. Make a common UI for its Mobile, tablet and desktops. Since people are forced to buy whatever OS MS pushes out, Windows 8 desktop will SELL the Win8 tablets and phones (hence, buy Nokia) and they will rule the world! I too, thought it would work out well. I installed the preview – when the desktop mode still had a nicely updated Aero which LOOKED great, but after 15 minutes of use, saw so many problems many months before release that we all witnessed. MS was nervous enough to offer the CHEAPEST upgrade for Windows7 and Vista users - $50! What a bargin!

Like so many others, I didn’t touch the upgrade. Windows 8’s cons were more than the pros.

The failure of Windows 8 desktop resulted in the failure of Windows 8 tablets and phones. Win8 was to be their stepping stone to a new business model in which MS makes money from the app store, rather than the OS. With 8.1, MS forced its users to upgrade IF they wanted to get security patches. No if or buts.

MS made several improvements with 10. I was even interested in trig it out on a dusty notebook. Making it FREE made it very inviting. Really, a FREE MS-OS?! Windows 10 will always get free Windows upgrades. There is something they are not telling us.

We learn that the following:

1 – After 30 days, your Win7 or Win8 backup will be erased. Making return difficult for typical users.

2 – Many uncertainties concerning Win10 activation… ie: you replace the motherboard or other failed part or want to do a clean install, etc, etc.

3 – you have NO control of the updates. You get them, no matter how bad they are. PERIOD.

4 – MS is data-mining everything.

Also, MS says you’ll always get free Windows upgrades for as long as you have your computer/whatever and other vague statements rather than simple answers.

Look at the new browser, EDGE. Changing out the engine doesn’t require changing the product name, we’ll get back to that later.

So, MS is making Windows10 a free upgrade for a limited time for Win7 and 8 users. That’s a loss of revenue, but MS has billions, so think long term. They promise that future Windows will always be free upgrades.

With Windows and Office being the ONLY revenue generating product for the company (Xbox, bing, Surface, etc always lose money and continue to lose money) – its important to make money from them. MS is so desperate to keep people on MS-Office that they finally made it available to Android and iOS in which how hard is it for Linux access? As we know, MS-Office only offers Outlook and a few polished features over Open Office, which has the high price of $0. Yes, I agree that OO isn’t MSO in many ways – but is it $400 better?

Win10 has to succeed, and making it free is their best chance (reminds me of Tron Legacy heheh). Win7 has only been available for PRO/business systems. How long will that last? That will continue as long as business REFUSE to use Windows 8 or Windows 10. MS rather make some money than none.

We can assume that MS will get most of the Win8 users to upgrade. It is a better OS in most ways. But imagine if they got 50% or more of the Win7 users to upgrade as well? That could push Win10 to over 50% market share in a year. As of July 2015:

61% = Windows 7

16% = Windows 8.x

12% = Windows XP

5% = Mac OS X

1.6% = Linux

1.6% = Windows Vista

By year two, with Windows 10.3 or whatever, XP should be down by 8%, Win8.x by 1%. Windows 7… who knows? Depends how much people like Win10 and willing to deal with the trade-offs. Yes, some nice new features, DX12, better use of modern technology… all for the sake of your data and security. I think they’ll get more than half by then.

So maybe around year 3 (2019) or so, a new OS will come out. Win7 will be approaching EOL.

Only, it won’t be called Windows 11 or Windows anything. (There are no Windows in the Win8 TIFKAM UI)

I’ll call it “MS/OS”. MS/OS should have obvious improvements over Win10.x. It too will be a free “upgrade” of course. But with the added expectations.

1 – Win 7, Win 8 and Win10 mainstream support will end by 2020. (8 & 10 have extended till 2023/25).

There is no “free upgrades forever”. Wind7, 8 and 10 have expiration dates.

2 – MS/OS can be expected to be subscription service. Why not?

3 – MS/OS will continue to data-mine and spam you to buy video and music.

Can MS survive by not making a profit off MSO and MS/OS? No. Luckily for them – they are doing quite well with MSO360. Its on par with GoogleDocs Pro in terms of pricing with more features.

If Win10 is successful in the market place, that will be the future. If Win10 fails… which I personally hope will happen, what then? Linux? Maybe… GoogleOS? MacOS? Maybe Android…? Tablets with keyboards, a mouse that can run office docs in the could – we do that today, will it be more so in the future?

As MS attempts to push the whole WindowsOS into the tablet formfactor, how well can the Android be made to work in a more desktop fashion? Like a 24” display or your TV via wireless and the ability to run 2-3 apps side by side the way you can with WinTablet 8 and some Samsung and LG products.

The success or failure of Windows 10 upgrade process will determine if MS fails. If IT and business lose more confidence in MS/Windows – then they’ll look more seriously at other solutions. Their concerns “training staff to use a new OS” is silly as the differences between Windows 7 and Linux Mint is far less than Win7 from Win8 or Win10. Of course, as long as IT professionals know only MS and not Linux, that will also continue to help Microsoft. But with MS’s goal of total control of all desktop computers… who needs an IT dept in the future?

MS will continue to lose market share for the home user market. The business sector is their last battle ground. Since the 2009 release of Win7 – My PC has been upgraded once using the same Win7 license and I don’t see any value or reason to bother with Win8 or Win10. In that time, I’m now on my 3rd Android phone in which I’m looking to get a new Moto X in the coming months. I’ve not bought a new notebook or whole PC in over 6 years. Maybe in 2-3 years intel will make a CPU that is noticeably faster than the i5 2500~5500 series CPU? With the gaming market also in control of the Playstation 4, why do people need desktop computers?

This is what keeps MS and intel up at night.