Reply to post: Re: Wait, what?

Re: Wait, what?

When did Japan start building ICBMs?

Sort of a trick question, since the H-IIB would make a really poor ICBM. Oh, sure, it has plenty of throw weight, but after that it's a stinker.

First, the H-IIB first and second stage run on liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen, which are singularly poor ICBM propellants. They don't store long at all. I mean, even in the 1950s liquid-fueled ICBMs were using room-temperature storable liquids because they were going to sit around for years before war broke out. Liquid oxygen needs more infrastructure to keep chilled, ready, and safe than even its obnoxious alternatives, nitric acid and nitrous oxide, though the US made it work in the 1950s before hurriedly transitioning to solids. And liquid hydrogen is an abject failure for long-term storage in military conditions, particularly since there are alternative fuels (like kerosene, hydrazine, and UDMH).

Second, the H-IIB is a hangar queen like most liquid-fueled satellite launchers. It needs a lot of preparation, a large launch pad, and long set-up times. It's great-great-great American grandpappy, the PGM-17 Thor, could be readied in 15 minutes (considered sadly slow by the advent of solid-fueled ICBMs), but it didn't have to contend with liquid hydrogen pre-chilling procedures and second stages like the H-IIB.

No, the H-IIB is not an ICBM, and it is not indicative that the Japanese are planning evil. By the time they assemble, process, fuel, and launch an ICBM, the war would probably be over.

Rather, what you need to look at are the relatives of the H-IIB's strap-on booster, which are solid fueled. If the Japanese are launching orbital payloads on all-solid rockets, then you've got reasons to send weapon inspectors for a look. All-solid stacks will work for satellite loads, but they're usually less ideal than liquid-fueled rockets for civilian payloads. If someone's using all-solid rockets for civilian launches then either:

1) They've got a lot of leftover ICBM motors with some profit potential, like the US and Russia. See: Minotaur, Dnepr. Or,

2) They're ironing out the bugs of their ICBM program under the guise of a civilian program, presumably while twirling their evil mustache and petting a long-haired white cat in their secret volcano layer. See: Shavit, aka Jericho III.

One notes Japan has volcanoes and white cats, and about 50% of their adult population can have mustaches.