Reply to post: Re: He's possibly right about Ebola: No

AIDS? Ebola? Nah – ELECTRO SMOG is our 'biggest problem', says Noel Edmonds

MathsFail

Re: He's possibly right about Ebola: No

Charles, what your Noel's analysis fails to consider is how Ebola differs from those other causes of death:

* the Ebola deaths occurred over a month, the others you quote over 18 months. I leave the linear growth calculations as an exercise (even though disease transmission/death is often exponential);

* the nature of Ebola means that people must avoid contact with others to avoid infection. This isn't the case with the other things you mention and effectively shuts down all activity in affected areas. Think about that happening in a city, eg business district;

* Ebola's infectiousness means that the risk of it spreading outside those countries, eg via human travel on planes or boats, is huge. Imagine what that does to importing/exporting or business travel between neighboring countries. Look at our own response in airport/port controls;

* disease containment and body disposal require new techniques, equipment and facilities. All this costs time and money meaning the response is slow, meaning the disease spreads faster, exacerbating all the above points;

* finally, can you honestly tell me that your personal response (and fear of) Ebola is the same as for flu or a car accident?

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