Eh..... sort of?
So Flash is here for a while, not gonna argue that. Its also going to continue to erode disk. Is it ever going to fully replace it, or even come close? I seriously doubt it. That said, John has every reason to peddle that thought as its good for his group (FYI, I dont fault him in the least for that).
The short version is that theres just not enough production capacity. Even if they magically could massively up the production capabilities, flash foundries are CRAZY expensive. If theres enough supply to truly replace disk, its price has been massively eroded which reduces the return on investment, which the foundries have a strong incentive to avoid. Tack on the weirdo-issues with increasing densities (read disturb, reduced write capacities, etc) and its suddenly less rosy picture.
My hypothesis (worth exactly the zero you payed for it) is that it'll continue to erode disk slowly, but disk will just move down the hierarchy, rather than ever be completely replaced. Consider how people have been screaming how tape is dead for many years yet its still there in pretty significant quantities.....
