Re: Not Quite Right
I suppose this could be "more likely", but frankly from where I'm sitting the probability of either is asymptotically approaching zero.
Human civilization is a few thousand years old. One decent catastrophe and it's gone. Even a fairly minor one could set things back for decades - think a supervolcano eruption that cools the earth significantly for a decade or two and causes mass die-offs; that'll severely crimp most AI research budgets. I think odds are pretty good that we'll be gone before the self-actualizing machines or the mind-machine synthesis arrive.