Re: Economics can't explain everything
".... but the information you have is that QT is probably a better place to put your money."
They key word in your argument is "probably" You can make as many estimations and risk analysis as you want, but fact is, you won't know for sure for each individual movie until it is actually released. And you'll always have one-hit wonders and the opposite, solid performers that from time to time make a bad movie.
The macroeconomic view of things does work on the aggregate, but fails on the small scale. And the crux of the problem is that all market changing shifts, by definition, start with some small player moving in some direction that everyone else thinks it is a waste of time and/or money. Be it personal computers, fancy music players, smartphones, search engines, microprocessor, integrated circuits or whatever else.
Once the first success happens, the rest of the sheep -no offense intended- follow after they have the historical evidence that something works. That is the point where you can make all the risk assesments and estimations because you have historical data and trends.
But note that at that point the return on these investiments is exponentially smaller. So at the end it is the classic equation: more uncertainity gives a higher likelyhood of failure, but better returns if it succeeds. "Safe" bets give small returns in exchange for higher confidence. But in real life there is no way of telling how something is 100% "safe" or "risky"