Re: @ scatter
"what makes the difference is that they have a motion sensor, so there's no groping for the light switch."
This is going to be the big trend in security lighting too.
CFL AND Halogen based lamps need to be on for longer periods, else the on/off cycling kills them in short order. LEDs can switch on and off as often as required (assuming there are no issues of thermal creep on the heatsink and substrate), which means that outdoor security lighting can move towards a "dark skies" model (which attracts more attention when the lights come on than constantly on lights do.)
Even if this is counteracted by reducing the spread of constantly-on floodlights mounted high to keep them out of missile range of spotty herberts and putting in more "spot" security lighting, the overall power consumption trend will be "downwards"
LEDs are pretty much invulnerable to shaking from a thrown stone, unlike a hot filament - and the local oiks regularly knock out "inconvenient" incandescent security lamps around here.
Yes, power consumption from heating is likely to rise long-term, but only a fool would install an electric radiator based system when heat pumps already give heating operational (and installation) costs comparable with gas-based systems.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
