Re: probability...
Try logic instead
An excellent suggestion. Perhaps you should learn what "logic" means and have a go at it yourself.
Here, I'll get you started. "Gosh, that seems really unlikely" is not a logical construction. If it's correct, then it's a justification for making a Bayesian estimate of the probability of a thesis; but in itself it has nothing to do with logic.
Biting the hand that feeds IT
