I would have thought it was impossible
-> zero-COVID policy
While I applaud the aim as something to aim for I would have thought it was an impossible target. This is not the first corona virus and it won't be the last. I am not a doctor
It's a small world (after all) but it got a lot smaller for the heaving masses who were trapped inside Shanghai Disneyland as a result of China's zero-COVID policy. Though the animation titan's theme parks are commonly claimed to be The Happiest Place on Earth, Minnie of the visitors must have thought local government was …
...I would have thought it was an impossible target.
As it turns out, and China keeps demonstrating, it is an impossible target. The problem (i.e. one of the problems) there is, the governing structure is unable to admit a mistake and must continue with whatever inept decision was taken in the first place. Anyhow, this is obviously only my totally unfounded opinion, and see icon.
' I tell you, Winston, that reality is not external. Reality exists in the human mind, and nowhere else. Not in the individual mind, which can make mistakes, and in any case soon perishes: only in the mind of the Party, which is collective and immortal. Whatever the Party holds to be the truth, is truth. It is impossible to see reality except by looking through the eyes of the Party. '
I started off to say that China's zero-Covid policy worked very well in 2020 -- a world with no vaccines and no effective antivirals. But I have some doubts that it's still a good idea.
Compare China -- zero-Covid policy, only a few (but severe) lockdowns, less than 6000 Covid related fatalities in a population of 1.3B -- with the US -- pretend Covid doesn't exist policy -- widespread, long lasting lockdowns and collateral economic damage, over a million fatalities in a population one fourth that of China. Hard to argue that early on, zero-Covid wasn't a far better strategy.
But today we have vaccines and Paxlovid. So one questions that zero-Covid is still a good idea.
Except, when I went to look up some numbers, I found that the US is currently experiencing about 300 Covid related fatalities a day. (It varies week to week apparently) That's about 110,000 a year. China? Close to zero. I wouldn't be surprised that China's numbers are less than completely honest. But probably not dramatically so. We'd likely hear about 9000 deaths a month if their numbers per capita matched the US. It does look like zero-Covid still works well enough to prevent a lot of hospital time and deaths and associated financial and social costs
My take. It's not as clear as it was early on in the pandemic. But maybe the Chinese do know what they are about. (And maybe they don't).
According to Worldometer, China has had no COVID deaths in the last few months.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/
The stats on COVID out of China are ridiculous and implausible.
So we have no way of telling if "Zero COVID" is indeed an effective policy, or otherwise.
...if "Zero COVID" is indeed an effective policy...
As Fr. Ted Crilly very accurately quoted 1984China's Communist Party Book, it's been decided long ago that the policy is indeed effective and therefore it is. That is the truth and anything else is ridiculous and implausible and who says otherwise is obviously insane and will be treated in suitable institutions for their own good.
The problem (i.e. one of the problems) there is, the governing structure is unable to admit a mistake and must continue with whatever inept decision was taken in the first place.
China's pre-Xi Xinping governing system was better fitted to this. Set up by Deng Xiaoping after the death of Mao was this system where about every 5 years the Party would change its leadership at the Party Conference. New Prime Minster and change some Politburu members, then old PM becomes President and previous President retires.
This was really done because almost everybody in the Party hierarchy had been purged and/or imprisoned by Mao at some point in their carrer. Including Deng (and also Xi's father). So this way stopped any one leader from having too much power - and incentivised them not to piss off too many people, as they'd eventually be retiring themselves.
It also has the advantage that it naturally creates a space for politics. The Prime Minister is not in charge now, but will be next. Which gives them independent power from the President, and forces them to consult. There's also jockeying to be on the next slate of candidates promoted to the Politburu, so you naturally have to quietly campaign and this way there's always policy battles being fought with the personal ones. It's not the greatest system, but it allows flexibility. There's a group of people associated with a policy and if it fails, they probably lose out.
In extreme cases the party can disavow some policy disaster when the President goes by blaming it all on them, and moving on.
I've no idea what possessed the rest of the Party to hand back total power to one man again. But the inflexibility and purges are back too.
Once a policy is identified as Xi's policy it's very tough to change. When Covid cover-up first failed in late 2019 / early 2020 - Xi could personally step in and say he was taking over. But now his policy of Zero Covid is failing, he's nobody to blame. And if he's not infallible, then what's the point of him being dictator for life? This is how dictatorships ossify. After which they usually start to deteriorate.
Thanks for the earworm you two, I can expand on the verse a little, Icon - As getting your coat seems pointless.
We shit shit shit shit shit shit shit in our hotels the whole day through
To shit shit shit shit shit shit shit is what we really hate to do
It ain't no trick to get Covid quick with a Disneyland china ticket and a bog full of sick
In a dive! In a dive! In a dive! In a dive!
Where 34,000 tourists whine!
I’m in Dundee and the nearest one is South of Edinburgh requiring engagement with the dreaded Bypass. But you can order some stuff online now. So let joy be unconfined. Especially since I require no more furniture. Some of it is Ikea but with careful use it is still fine. Also bought long enough ago that it was actually solid stuff.