Another week, another issue: Virgin Galactic mulls test flight restart as VSS Unity fixed – but VMS Eve might be borked Virgin Galactic reckons it has dealt with an electromagnetic interference (EMI) problem that aborted a recent test flight just as another technical gremlin rears its head. The news came during a Q1 investor call following the announcement of a $130m loss, down from the $377m loss for the same time last year. Mike Moses, …
I think when we are confronted with moral dilemmas like this we should always remember the wisdom of the late great Douglas Adams:
"Well not, not, not so much land in fact, I think as far as I can remember we're programmed to, er crash on it."
Well played sir, well played.
This time last year, apparently around 8,000 people had put down deposits for a VG flight, and in recent articles, a figure of 600 has been quoted of people who've actually bought tickets so far.
The new VSS Imagine ship (the first SpaceShip III class ship), seats 6 passengers, VG plans to build a 2nd one of these (no dates yet as far as I know).
They have stated they plan do about 400 flights per year (eventually), although I assume they at least need the 2nd ship for this, and will likely start much slower.
So you're probably looking at at least a year or two to clear those initial 600 ticket holders, then an additional 3+ years for the ~8000 deposit holders, assuming they manage to ramp up to the proposed 400 flights of course. (and that all 8,000 actually go through with it of course).
And that's with static numbers, presumably ticket sales will kick off again once flights are going. I also suspect many people who are interested in a flight, likely want to wait a while for the tech to prove itself, so won't have put down a deposit yet.
Assuming they achieve and stick to 400 flights a year, and the 6 seat configuration, that's 2,400 people each year buying a ticket to sustain those flight numbers. The US alone produces over 600k new millionaires per year, so there's no shortage of people who are going to be able to afford it.
"The US alone produces over 600k new millionaires per year, so there's no shortage of people who are going to be able to afford it."
I think you need to be a bit more than a mere millionaire if you want to spunk possibly half your net worth on a single short trip. Then again, plenty of people used to pay for those "experience" flights on Concord, even it was much more affordable.
Quote: "The three-day Virgin Galactic Experience costs US$250,000 per astronaut and includes all training, required clothing, accommodation, food and beverages. International and domestic flights within the US and transfers are extra."
So 'only' 25% of their net worth, unless the price goes up of course :-)
Also, just a guess, but I'd assume that whilst some new millionaires have got there over many years by putting money aside, investing etc. A lot of them are going to be high earners, running their own companies etc.
Test flights (of SpaceShipOne) were planned and carried out earlier (2003) but the earliest date I can find that involves passengers going to over 80km altitude in a SpaceShipTwo is when Branson hoped (no hint of a promise) he would fly before the end of 2009.
As in, Holy friggin hell! REALLY?? They didn't expect inductive feedback from actuators? Who are the clowns designing this? That's mechatronics 101. EVERY actuator has some form of feedback. If your control system can't handle it, it'll shit the bed (as demonstrated). This certainly doesn't inspire confidence in the design and testing process as VG. Have they even heard of DFMEA? CDRs? 4-eyes principles?
That's one order of magnitude or, if I recall correctly, around 10 dB. In EMC terms that kind of margin is more of a just-squeak-through than anything to boast about. Hope they keep an eye on it, as anything as simple as the cable harness sagging under high gee could potentially bring the problem back.
I'm surprised that a major failure was deemed to be caused by an EMI failure. After such a long time in development, the electronics should be bulletproof. At this time it is the software that should be under close scrutiny.
The fact that this fault happened at all would put me off from booking a place as I would question what other areas have been overlooked and did they cut corners?
> I'm surprised that a major failure was deemed to be caused by an EMI failure. After such a long time in development, the electronics should be bulletproof. At this time it is the software that should be under close scrutiny.
AFAIC tell from the article there was no "major failure" - the software correctly detected that the hardware was giving odd feedback and aborted the launch. This is no different to a traditional vertical launch rocket having its countdown aborted because something unusual is detected.
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