Re: Dangerous Times For Intel
As always, it's complicated...
Start with the easy stuff - TSMC are currently on optimised 7+nm high performance (HP) silicon with a mix of EUV/SAQP process technologies and 5nm for low power (LP) using just EUV. The margins for components in LP is significantly larger than HP processes which means HP allows for higher frequencies, higher densities and higher power usage. In addition, LP tends to lead HP by 6-12 months.
For Intel, there failed 10nm process used SAQP only but was likely to have similar performance to TSMC 7+ HP processes based on published component sizes. It failed for a number of reasons, but it is best summed up by being too complicated for the available technology because they tried to incorporate 3 significant design changes into one process shrink and all 3 failed to work as intended initially (leaving Intel unsure what the cause of each fault was).
It's also worth stating that design rules are process dependent - movign a workign Intel design to TSMC/Samsung will likely take 6-12 months of redesign and a further 6-12 months to get production ready silicon to market. I would be very surprised if we see Intel x86 designs rolling off TSMC or another foundries processes unless Intel 5nm is a complete failure.
Stepping forward to TSMC 5nm HP on EUV and Intel 7nm on EUV - these should be equivalent in performance but TSMC have a significant lead in installed equipment and producing LP chips meaning Intel are likely 1+ years behind TSMC. This broadly lines up with guidence given by Intel.
Yields are down to the process used rather than the design unless you try to bend design rules - if its a new process (as 5nm HP will be) there are no guarantees you will have high yields. Historically, Intel was brilliant at process execution but very conservative with design rules with TSMC customers pushing design rules hard to try and compensate for poorer process execution but it looks like TSMC have addressed their process execution and yield issues in recent years.
The only thing missing from all this is Samsung - their EUV processes look promising and they have had some experience with EUV at 7nm already so they may become the surprise package if their 5nm process is competative. In addition, Samsung have similar EUV capacity to Intel at present so we will likely see some production moving away from TSMC to Samsung becuase TSMC doesn't have the capacity to serve everyone.
Comments around AMD and ARM are a little misleading - if Nvidia do end up purchasing ARM I suspect it will drive a significant move to RISC-V in the higher volume market segments. While AMD has some low-volume ARM products via a subsidary, it's unlikely to be affected by the buyout. As for Nvidia, I can't justify their current share price based on other tech stocks and I think Softbank maybe getting out of ARM at just the right time for them. Softbank take the money and run, Nvidia's bubble bursts and ARM moves to another new owner?