It's a billion-ton, 14-million-mile long mysterious alien formation – and Earth is heading right into it

Asteroid 3200 Phaethon's thick trail of debris, which is the source of the annual Geminids meteor shower here on Earth, has a mass of about a billion tons, is 60,000 miles wide, and is more than 14 million miles long. Scientists at America's Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) built a specialized camera known as the Wide-Field …

[Jellied Eel]

Kids with dandruff?

Soo...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phaethon

Placed in charge of the chariot, Phaethon was unable to control the horses. In some versions, the Earth first froze when the horses climbed too high, but when the chariot then scorched the Earth by swinging too near...

Some years ago I read an article from NASA about Voyager's merry trip out of our solar system, and apparently running into 'cosmic fluff'. Which was a neat term, and apparently is the star dust we're made from, and gets swept by our solar wind. Kind of a cosmic 'bug on a windshield' thing. Then there's Svensmark's research into CCNs (Cloud Condensation Nuclei) which are the small particles water vapor condenses around, and lead to cloud formation. That's an interesting theory wrt climate change given cloud cover has a big impact on radiative energy transfers.

And if the 'cosmic fluff' isn't evenly distributed around the galaxy, then presumably the Sun's orbit might encounter a denser cloud of fluff, and if that's enough to get into our atmosphere, could result in more clouds, colder weather and explain some of the long duration climate changes that aren't easily explained by other theories, eg Milankovitch Cycles, where effect can exceed cause. So kinda curious if passing through that debris field would have any observable effect, but would be neat if scientists can catch some of the debris to figure out why Phaethon's shedding it, and maybe if there's any effect on cloud cover during the passage.

[headrush]

Re: Kids with dandruff?

But I thought cloud cover increased albedo, which would reduce insolation. Also it would be difficult to explain how the asteroids trail managed to create such an effect and also coincide with the rise in greenhouse gases relative to human industrial output.

Not saying there is no effect, but occams razor....

[Rich 11]

Re: Kids with dandruff?

But I thought cloud cover increased albedo, which would reduce insolation

It does, but the light which does get through and strikes the surface also gets partially reflected and/or re-emitted as infra-red back up to the underside of the clouds, which is then absorbed and/or reflected back down, and so on. Greater cloud cover does mean less energy reaches the surface but also that a greater proportion of that energy is retained.

I can't remember reading anything which concludes whether or not the cloud formation hypothesis has a significant effect, but given that we've had global weather station coverage since 1940 and have weather reports from the ships' logs (naval and civil) stored by the Admiralty going back to the mid 17th century, I'd be very surprised if this hadn't already been investigated.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Kids with dandruff?

I'd be very surprised if this hadn't already been investigated.

It is.. Here's one that's neat.

https://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2002/12apr_earthshine/

So projects to observe the Earth's albedo top-down via satellites & also bottom up. See also-

Our planet's average albedo in recent years is 0.297 plus or minus 0.005 according to Project Earthshine researchers.

suggesting in that paper that it doesn't change much.. But then scientists haven't really had the ability to observe it in detail for long, ie satellites. It's cool stuff trying to figure out energy balance/imbalance on a planetary scale. Clouds are fun given the way water vapor overlaps 3/4 of CO2's emission/absorption bands, so can have a far larger effect, especially given energy emitted by CO2 may hit H2O, then re-radiated in a random direction.. And then there's all the non-radiative energy transfers to figure out as well.

Hence why climate modelling computers probably can run Crysis.. :p

[headrush]

Re: Kids with dandruff?

Two points. Every interaction costs energy which ultimately must end up as heat. Warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour, which as you point out leads to more warming. The question then becomes which comes first. I can see a CO2 > heat > water vapour interaction, but water vapour > co2 > heat is more tenuous. And co2 is shooting through the roof. With less co2 absorption due to deforestation and the oceans nearing their absorption limit, the current panic over co2 emissions does ring true.

Even if it were a natural variation, it would be foolish to continue to increase those emissions.

We have already demonstrated a link between man made pollution and atmospheric effects with CFCs. When they were banned, the ozone hole started to repair itself. Now some companies are ignoring the rules, the situation is reverting. Why such a fuss over CO2, when there is a demonstrable scientific link? Wouldn't all be about profit would it? I'm slightly confused over the decision process that leads to us burning a highly complex molecule simply to access the heat energy when it can offer so much more. Seems very primitive...

Personally I am a minimal impact kind of guy. Leave nothing behind that wasn't there when you arrived. At least every generation gets the same chance then.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Kids with dandruff?

Two points. Every interaction costs energy which ultimately must end up as heat. Warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour, which as you point out leads to more warming.

Depends what you mean by heat, ie that's just energy in motion. The H2O bit is trickier given it's got a much wider absorption spectrum, so more of a radiative effect in both (ok, all) directions than CO2. Plus there's a lot more of it.. Which is why I find CCN theories interesting given there are surface effects from oceanic organisms and possibly cosmic effects, and cloud altitude has a big effect on heat transfers. Svensmark's theories have been reproduced in cloud chambers, but real-world observations are trickier. Hence why flying through some cosmic dandruff may or may not have some effect. But there'll probably be some interesting attribution challenges, so deciding if any noticeable change in cloud cover could be attributed to the dust. Collecting some and seeing if particles are small enough to act as CCNs might allow some extrapolation though.

The question then becomes which comes first. I can see a CO2 > heat > water vapour interaction, but water vapour > co2 > heat is more tenuous.

Re-arranging might be simpler, so heat > water vapor > CO2.. Which is potentially easier to test, especially the first two, and the CO2 may just be a result of a warming planet with more moisture.. which may also explain rising CO2 levels, ie from the warming/growing biosphere.

Why such a fuss over CO2, when there is a demonstrable scientific link? Wouldn't all be about profit would it?

I'm sure it is, and there's been an enormous amount of money spent on climate change. 30,000 people flew into Madrid to lobby for even more, ie the UN's demand for $100bn a year from developed nations, or just the amount spent in the UK on primitive windmills.

I'm slightly confused over the decision process that leads to us burning a highly complex molecule simply to access the heat energy when it can offer so much more.

Ah, there's an XKCD for that!

https://www.xkcd.com/1162/

Demonstrating the advantages of nuclear power over 'renewables'.. Especially if it gets cloudy, so solar is less efficient, and we're burning more gas to back up wind.. Plus of course if climate change means calmer weather, wind ain't going to be great either. But such is politics.

As for science.. See also-

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2019/12/12/3000-year-old-trees-excavated-under-icelandic-glacier/

Ancient tree stumps found under Breiðamerkurjökull glacier in Southeast Iceland are confirmed to be roughly 3,000 years old. RÚV reports.

A specialist believes the remarkably well-preserved stumps were part of a massive forest that disappeared after a long period of a warm climate.

Which is of course impossible. Or at least needs explaining in the context of modern times being the warmest ever.. Which might be back to dust. So if it was warmer 3ka ago, why? And why did the glacier advance? And for more fun, scientists can probably do isotopic analysis on those stumps to learn more.

It's the kind of stuff a 16yr old might find fascinating, if they weren't spending so much time travelling :p

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Kids with dandruff?

But I thought cloud cover increased albedo, which would reduce insolation. Also it would be difficult to explain how the asteroids trail managed to create such an effect and also coincide with the rise in greenhouse gases relative to human industrial output.

That's all part of the fun. So perhaps starting with why the Greeks came up with their original climate change myth through to today. The rest is science, ie figuring out the Earth's CO2 sensitivity, and explaining past climate changes. Like how we got into & out of previous ice ages, large or small. Clouds may have a big part in that, ie it's easy to demonstrate the effect by going outside when it's cloudy or clear. I doubt asteroid trails would have a big enough effect give we're orbiting fast, so wouldn't stay in an asteroid/comet trail for very long. Hitting a denser patch of stardust might though.

Then it's the effect, which is where CCNs are a possibilty, then there's potential for long periods where cloud cover might be higher. So then there's a reduced daytime insolation, but an increased night time 'insulation', ie dark, clear night = cold, cloudy not so cold. And due to lower insolation daytime, temps could gradually fall.. But it'd probably need a few decades or more to trigger something like an Ice Age. Then there's possible smaller events, eg the Little Ice Age to explain, and there are various theories for those.. But potential snags, ie assuming Milankovitch Cycles were some form of orbital excursion.. Which begs the question Why? given our orbit with have to shift a lot to reduce insolation.

Same challenges exist with CO2-driven theories, ie if CO2 can cause Ice Ages, and end them, then CO2 sensitivity would need to be higher than is shown via current science.. Especially with some controversy around whether CO2 concentrations lead, or lag temperature. If they lag, it's an effect, not cause.

But such is the joy of science. I'm assuming scientists will be getting funding applications ready to load up aircraft with dust collectors and see what they can find.

[Palpy]

Re: Science, all part of the fun.

Indeed. My understanding of pre-industrial ice age dynamics is that it is, in a word, complicated. There is some evidence (Shakun et al, Nature -- sorry, abstract only, full article paywalled) that, first, the Milankovitch orbital cycles came around to the "a bit warmer" part of Earth's shifting orbital configuration. Then the slightly warming seas were forced by the laws of physics to release some of the CO2 dissolved in the water; this caused more warming.

In other words, according to Shakun, the 600 to 1000 year lag between the onset of warming and the rise in atmospheric CO2 is one lag in the warming feedback loop. Approximately 93% of the interglacial warming occurred after the rise in CO2; the prior Milankovitch rise in temperature was therefore only 7% of the total interglacial warming. It only takes a nudge, perhaps.

However, it's more complicated than that.

Glacial erosion during the ice ages also "fertilized" the oceans, especially once the ice began to melt and the volume of glacial flour -- very finely ground rock -- washed into the sea increased. Iron, in particular, is a limiting nutrient in much of the ocean, and glacial outwash put more iron in the oceans. That would increase phytoplankton growth, sequestering CO2. But the erosion would also expose fresh carbonate rock -- limestone, marble, et al -- to weathering, which would release more CO2.

But it's more complicated than that.

As the continental ice sheets in North America and Europe melted, the influx of fresh water in the north Atlantic shut down the meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), causing local cooling in the northern hemisphere and warming in the southern. Apparently this inconsistency between hemispheres caused some instability in temperature: the northern hemisphere above about 30 degrees latitude bounced between warmer and cooler from about 15 to 11 thousand years ago. The equatorial and southern regions warmed fairly steadily over the same period.

And yet more complications.

Summertime albedo over the areas covered by continental ice decreased as the snowline moved north, exposing dark earth and stone. That enhanced warming. Increased amounts of gaseous H2O (water "vapor", fergodsake, it's not steam or vapor, it's H2O in gas phase!) in the atmosphere led to increased heat capture (H2O is a "greenhouse gas") while at the same time presumably increasing cloud formation (now, a cloud, that's like steam), especially in the tropics, thereby increasing albedo and reflecting more sunlight during daytime. But trapping more infrared radiation -- heat -- during the night.

And never mind the volcanic eruptions which probably reversed the warming trend temporarily during the Little Ice Age. And the apparent minimum in solar activity in the middle of that cool period, the Maunder Minimum.

So the dynamics of Earth's heat budget are complicated. It a nest of interlocking feedbacks. But the composition of the atmosphere -- methane, CO2, gaseous H2O, sulfur dioxide (from volcanoes), etc -- seems to be the largest driver.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Science, all part of the fun.

So the dynamics of Earth's heat budget are complicated. It a nest of interlocking feedbacks. But the composition of the atmosphere -- methane, CO2, gaseous H2O, sulfur dioxide (from volcanoes), etc -- seems to be the largest driver.

I'm.. less sure, but agree it's all very complicated, and a wicked problem that's extremely challenging to model. Hence the difference between model predictions and observations shown during re-analysis.. But it's all fascinating stuff. The Shakun et al paper wasn't paywalled for me and seemed to make sense. So normal bulk energy transfer in our heat engine is from equator polewards, so why did deglaciation appear to start pole-equator? Running AMOC seems a plausible explanation, and in which I learned of a new proxy.. Pa/Th ratios.

That's also where discoveries like the Icelandic stumps is interesting, and whether information can be extracted from those. ISTR there are issues with tree rings from stumps vs trunks, but that might be a standardised sampling thing. Density and isotopic analysis of ring material might provide clues as to the climate preceeding their meeting with a glacier.. Which is also a bit of a cosmic thing, ie that drives the isotope formation.. And the initial 'nudges' into & out of glaciation still seem to need more research given it'd need either a large change in orbit to alter insolation, or a large change (or shift) in solar activity.

Oceanic and biosphere feedbacks are also fascinating, ie coccolithophores have the ability to alter albedo by turning the sea 'milky', produce CCNs to help temperature regulation, and leave behind stable alkenones for use as proxies.. But I've read papers arguing for/against their response to elevated CO2. On the plus side, there's so much carbonate in the oceans that there's no climate emergency around 'acidification'.

As for H2O, yup, guilty.. But the difference between gaseous and vapor is again one of those wicked modelling challenges. The spectral effects are similar, but the albedo rather different. :)

[A.P. Veening]

Re: Science, all part of the fun.

As for H2O, yup, guilty.. But the difference between gaseous and vapor is again one of those wicked modelling challenges. The spectral effects are similar, but the albedo rather different. :)

The albedo difference between H₂O in gaseous and vapor form is negligible, but the difference with liquid H₂O in an aerosol suspension (aka cloud) is pretty large.

[FriendInMiami]

Re: Science, all part of the fun.

RE: "On the plus side, there's so much carbonate in the oceans that there is no climate emergency around 'acidification'.

Well... disagree. "The oceans are growing more acidic, and scientists think the change is happening faster than at any time in geologic history...." https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/oceans/critical-issues-ocean-acidification/

[Stoneshop]

and maybe if there's any effect on cloud cover during the passage.

Ever managed to actually view a meteor shower?

Q.E.D.

[Tom 7]

Meteor storms are always accompanied by a shit load of fine dust

which is invisible until it forms condensation nucleii preventing any viewing of the meteorites it accompanies.

According to my weather forecast the only time cloud cover drops below 90% at night during the shower it will be accompanied by 45mph winds which will make viewing from my deck chair impossible unless I increase my weight by imbibing 10 pints which brings its own problems.

[Spacedinvader]

Re: Meteor storms are always accompanied by a shit load of fine dust

"imbibing 10 pints which brings its own problems"

Just pee in a bucket...

[Tom 7]

Re: Meteor storms are always accompanied by a shit load of fine dust

But I'd have to lie face down in the deck chair to do that. My problem would be staying awake!

[Spherical Cow]

Re: Meteor storms are always accompanied by a shit load of fine dust

"imbibing 10 pints which brings its own problems"

Technically, beer is a solution.

[Pascal Monett]

“Something catastrophic [must have] happened to Phaethon a couple of thousand years ago"

If it was catastrophic, it must have changed Phaethon's orbit, right ? I'm thinking impact.

If Phaethon had an impact with something where the Geminid cloud is, then I would think that it does not go through that area now. Is that the case ?

Because if Phaethon is still going through that area now, then whatever happened was not catastrophic enough to change its orbit. Then what ?

[ThatOne]

Re: “Something catastrophic [must have] happened to Phaethon a couple of thousand years ago"

> whatever happened was not catastrophic enough to change its orbit.

It probably changed Phaethon's and the Geminid debris cloud's orbits to the rather singular one they have nowadays. Although we don't know where Phaethon used to hang out before the "incident", it is rumored it might once have been a member of the Pallas asteroid family, made out of pieces ejected by Pallas and thus having an orbit similar to Pallas (asteroid belt).

[Anon]

Is it dust or...

Is it dust or could it be empty soup tins?

[ColonelClaw]

I wonder if the catastrophic event that happened a couple of thousand years ago was visible to the naked eye if you were in the vicinity of, say, Bethlehem?

[Rich 11]

Just to play Devil's Advocate...

What sort of catastrophe did you have in mind, given that it would have had to shine brightly for enough weeks to incite the interest of some wealthy rulers and give them time to camel-slog across the Middle East?

[WolfFan]

[cough] please see Arthur C. Clarke’s story ‘The Star’. One of the most powerful last lines ever written in English.

As that story and ‘The Nine Billion Names of God’, also with one of the best last lines ever written in English, proved, old Arthur was a very naughty boy and had no respect for theologians. There may be a connection between the two.

[Rich 11]

Pure genius

"And overhead, the stars were going out."

‘The Nine Billion Names of God’ was the first of Clarke's stories I ever read, in the anthology 'Of Time and Stars', back when I was eight years old. I've still got that book, even though it's showing its age almost as much as I am!

[mikecoppicegreen]

Re: Pure genius

Upvote from me for Arthur c Clarke. Also the author of my favourite riposte to people who want to “future proof” things. “The future is not only stranger than we imagine, it is stranger than we can imagine.

[jake]

Also take note of "The Clarke Event", GRB 080319B

GRB 080319B

For some reason, the Human mind is capable of finding order and intelligence in the most random of events. The evil among us take advantage of this to subjugate the ignorant and credulous.

[Stoneshop]

old Arthur was a very naughty boy

He's not the messiah. Now piss off.

[Anonymous Coward]

Where's the USAian contingent?

Scientists at America's Naval Research Laboratory (NRL)...

America's lab? Surely it should be USAia's lab? At least according to the usual gaggle of idjits that want to call us over on this side USAians, yes? (Go ahead haters, vote me down.)

FWIW I'm becoming a convert to the notion that Spock is a Vulcanian – not a Vulcan – because that's how his character describes himself in a fair number of TOS episodes. (It only took 50+ years and countless iterations of droning myself to sleep watching TOS reruns before it finally registered.)

[Danny 2]

Re: Where's the USAian contingent?

Vulcanian is how the locals refer to themselves. Vulcan is a pejorative term by ignorant non-Vulcanians.

[ThatOne]

Re: Where's the USAian contingent?

And "vulcanization" is the name of the immigration procedure.

[jake]

Re: Where's the USAian contingent?

"Sulfer" is from the Latin "sulfur". You Brits use the perverted French "sulpher". Sez so right here in my OED.

[Anonymous Coward]

Space Force is Go

I await the Orange One calling on the Space Force to build a wall to stop this alien immigrants.

[Jan 0]

I'm perplexed

If the dust trail occupies just 14 million miles of the complete orbit of 3200 Phaethon, why does our orbit intersect it every year? Or is it just that we're in the appropriate historical period and maybe in a few years time no one on Earth will be seeing the Geminids? (3200 Phaeton's orbit must have a circumference in excess of 250 million miles, so why doesn't the Earth usually travel though the empty part of 3200 Phaeton's orbit?)

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: I'm perplexed

The dust trail is ever present and unmoving form our orbit to remind us that there is god and is a symbol of his power.

He also wanted to ensure and see Boris Johnson and Trump play havoc with our lives by ensuring their elections !

Those Camel (probably stolen) riders were just hitchhikers , lucky there were no clouds at the time. Mary birthed when Joseph was out hunting/gathering food and the wise men assumed virgin birth and made a story out of it, just as Arthur Clarke surmised.

Worry not about Global warming, the Ice Age will soon be upon us and redress the balance.

Lets enjoy those 10 pints, shall we?

[jake]

Re: I'm perplexed

In a nutshell, a comet is made of various ices and small bits of sand and dust. They always follow the same path around the Sun (unless perturbed by getting too close to one of the planets). As it enters the inner Solar System, it heats up and starts outgassing and also releasing some of the sand and dust. Over time, the orbit of the comet collects many of these particles. When the Earth happens to intersect the orbit, we see the meteor shower. Note that the Earth's orbit does not intersect the vast majority of comet orbits because space is big. Really big ...

Here's a handy Web page that goes into it in a lot more detail: https://geology.com/articles/meteor-shower.shtml

[ThatOne]

Re: I'm perplexed

True, except that Phaethon isn't a comet, it's a bona fide asteroid made out of rock, having been kicked out of the asteroid belt after a brawl (harsh!).

The Geminid dust cloud is the result of that incident, it's pieces of Phaethon and thus follows a similar orbit to their parent body. Except that, due to gravity interferences with the planets it meets and solar radiation pressure, it tends to broaden and widen to occupy a huge part of its orbit.

To answer the OP's question, yes, our orbits intersect almost (in 2007 Phaethon made a flyby close enough to take some radar pictures of it). Now there seems to be a tendency for the Geminid shower to get more intense every year, so apparently the cloud's orbit is indeed moving in relation to earth's orbit. It seems that till now we used to cross the outskirts of the cloud, and now we're going to fly through the more dense areas (let's hope there aren't any big pieces hidden in there).

[jake]

Re: I'm perplexed

Consensus is that 3200 Phaethon is probably of cometary origin. Some astronomers refer to it as a "rock comet". Regardless of any handle us puny humans hang on it, it is an unusual object that probably belongs in it's own category.

[ThatOne]

Re: I'm perplexed

> Consensus is that 3200 Phaethon is probably of cometary origin.

I'm puzzled. From what I remember it's a piece of 2 Pallas (the biggish asteroid). Do you have any links? I want to learn more. *scratches head*

[Jake Maverick]

american billion or an english one?

[jake]

Well, seeing as the British officially adopted the French "short scale" in 1974, the correct answer is "The French one, as also used by the Americans".

HTH, HAND

[Anonymous Coward]

The best time to catch the Geminids meteor shower is December 14,

Morning or evening?

[Rich 11]

Re: The best time to catch the Geminids meteor shower is December 14,

With a net.

[Anonymous Coward]

What? Volkswagen stopped making phaetons a few years ago.