Ukraine unveils native jet-powered drone interceptor

Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) says the country has brought into service its first home-grown jet-powered drone interceptor, intended to take out Russian attack drones. The weapon, known as the Alexa Spatium, is a v-tail unmanned plane developed by Ukrainian engineers to destroy small airborne and surface targets. It was …

[Charles E]

Remarkable

Has a remarkable resemblance to LOHAN, doesn't it?

[FrogsAndChips]

Re: Remarkable

I think you're mixing it up with PARIS. LOHAN was a helium balloon.

[Empire of the Pussycat]

Re: Remarkable

If Lester were still with us, I bet he'd have ensured Ukraine would've won by now, with plucky playmonauts leading the battle.

[EricM]

> It features an X-band radar seeker in the nose and a blast-fragmentation warhead to disable the target.

This model looks a bit too expensive to waste one per incoming drone...

I wonder if there are already any developments to fit a barrel for 10-20 shots of standard shotgun ammunition into those air frames.

At the distance needed for a warhead to be effective this would be pretty effective as well and the fragments from the ammo would be slow enough to not do any damage when reaching the ground.

Engage multiple targets, once fuel/ammo are depleted, land with a small chute, re-stock and launch again.

This way, at the same production rate, they could over time fill the sky with defense drones capable of multiple kills per launch instead of blowing one up per attempted defense...

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

The tricky bit is the £10 Bn MOD project to develop a pickup truck

[Rich 2]

If only that was a joke!

I have watched with interest how the Uranian’s have managed to design and develop novel systems like this in very short timescales and, I would wager, very low cost.

Compare that to the endless billions overspend and decades over-time that is typical of a similar UK MOD project. That’s those that aren’t scrapped half way through because they are declared too broken to continue

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

>Compare that to the endless billions overspend and decades over-time that is typical of a similar UK MOD project.

It's perfectly understandable process:

You take a proven off-the-shelf Toyota Hilux

Adapt it to right hand drive (having ordered a custom left hand drive model because you didn't realise that Japan drove on the left)

Replace the engine with a British Leyland model designed for an abandoned 1960s armoured car project

Redesign the engine to meet 2026 emissions specs

Rewire with the 240V AC electrical system needed for the army's new radio system

Strengthen the chassis and suspension to take the weight of the new radio

Adapt the vehicle to a new 5 wheel design - a compromise between the Army 6 wheel requirement to carry the new radio system and the Marines requirement for 4 wheels = cos it's a bloody pickup init

Have the resulting vehicle built in the Shetlands to bring jobs to a marginal constituency

[LybsterRoy]

Its all down to the incentives:

Ukraine (at war) - staying alive and not part of Russia

UK (at peace) - how do I increase my bonus

simples

[David Hicklin]

> Its all down to the incentives:

Indeed, when you are fighting for your very existence the boffins can get very creative not only creating new stuff but adapting whatever is lying around

[Paul Hovnanian]

I'd venture a guess that Ukraine's efforts more closely resemble the Great Toyota War.

[Gene Cash]

Holy **** - I was expecting that to lead to an article on some anime or SF novel.

[Jellied Eel]

This model looks a bit too expensive to waste one per incoming drone...

It's fine. It's not as if Ukraine is paying for them. But the economics are always the challenge, ie 2 interceptors, 1 drone is typical to make sure 1 hits if the other misses. Plus the VFM argument is not the relative cost of the drones, but what they're protecting. So if this drone costs $50k and stops a Geran hitting a $1bn Patriot system, then it's a bargain.

Rest is really a numbers game, so how many 'Ukraine' can produce vs Russia's production rate for Gerans & other systems. Then how effective it is at chasing down Geran-5's that also have jets.

At the distance needed for a warhead to be effective this would be pretty effective as well and the fragments from the ammo would be slow enough to not do any damage when reaching the ground.

Always a challenge. I haven't seen what the warhead weight is, but it's much like the WW2 situation. So aircraft like the Mosquito with wood & cloth could survive and land peppered with holes because unless something important was hit, the aircraft could survive. Geran's are mostly made of foam/polystyrene, so shotgun pellets or fragments might just go right through & not kill the drone. A proximity or hit-to-kill warhead should do enough damage to stop the Geran, but might still leave the warhead intact.

Which is one of those cold equations the media tends to ignore. An intercept might mean the Patriot battery is saved, but the debris lands on an apartment building instead, especially when interceptors are protecting large urban areas like Kiev & you can't always ensure that interceptions happen over open ground.

[elsergiovolador]

It's Kyiv, comrade.

[Jellied Eel]

It's Kyiv, comrade.

Nope, it's Київ, or historically Киев, or going further back, something in proto-Slavic & the origins are still debated. But the romanized name is in the alphabet we use and the Київ version was just a result of the Ukraine's pogrom of ethnic cleansing from 2018. Which included some odd virtue signalling, like rebranding Chicken Kiev.

[Androgynous Cupboard]

Europe's seen plenty of actual pogroms, and you manage cheapen them all with this comparison. From you I'd expect nothing better.

[Jellied Eel]

Europe's seen plenty of actual pogroms, and you manage cheapen them all with this comparison. From you I'd expect nothing better.

Oh, I know. And you clearly do not. Which is why I won't support the Banderites, and you clearly do. But if you don't know what a word means, you could always have looked it up-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pogrom#Eastern_Europe_after_World_War_I

Professor Zvi Gitelman (in A Century of Ambivalence, originally published in 1988) estimated that only in 1918–1919 over 1,200 pogroms took place in Ukraine, thus amounting to the greatest slaughter of Jews in Eastern Europe since 1648. The Kiev pogroms of 1919, according to Gitelman, were the first of a subsequent wave of pogroms in which between 30,000 and 70,000 Jews were massacred across Ukraine; although more recent assessments[by whom?] put the Jewish death toll at more than 100,000...

...Of all the pogroms accounted for in Gergel's research:

About 40 percent were perpetrated by the Ukrainian People's Republic forces led by Symon Petliura. The Republic issued orders condemning pogroms, but lacked authority to intervene. After May 1919 the Directory lost its role as a credible governing body; almost 75 percent of pogroms occurred between May and September of that year. Thousands of Jews were killed only for being Jewish, without any political affiliations.

25 percent by the Ukrainian Green Army and various Ukrainian nationalist gangs,

[Chris 15]

Idiotic nonsense

I take it you were hoping nobody would notice that the dates there are off by a century from your lie..

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Idiotic nonsense

I take it you were hoping nobody would notice that the dates there are off by a century from your lie..

What 'lie'? I simply pointed out that pogroms and Ukraine are nothing new, and the perpetrators follow the same ideology, ie Ukrainian nationalism and a twisted ideology. That continued into WW2 with Banderas and the nationalists allying with Germany and committing more atrocities and pogroms. Then post-independence, it continued with a fresh resurgence in Ukrainian nationalism with the Banderites providing the muscle behind the 2014 coup. It's where the 'slava' thing useful idiots blindly chant, as well as the red & black flag.

If you don't understand Ukraine's history, then you'll never understand why there's a lot of bad blood between neighbors, and no easy solution. You're also probably unaware of this problem-

https://kyivindependent.com/eu-reminds-ukraine-of-rule-of-law-homework-after-parliament-stalls-reforms/

...The Ukraine Plan refers to the timetable and reforms required for Kyiv to unlock each tranche of payments from the EU's 90 billion euro loan ($105 billion), which was approved in April.

Kyiv agreed to both the timing of the expected payments and the reforms required in order to receive the money.

Lammert added that "Ukraine has agreed with the European Commission on 10 reform priorities that should be prioritized in order to strengthen the rule of law and the fight against corruption."

But Ukraine hasn't implemented any of the 10, and when its parliament returned, it rejected 5 of the proposals. Which is a problem for Zelensky because that 90bn 'loan' is conditional on those reforms. Especially as Ukraine is now very dependent, not independent and Zelensky says he needs an additional 60bn for 2026/7. And then to complicate his life further, Federov is challenging him and risks another coup..

So yey, Ukraine has a new toy. But it can't afford it, and also can't really afford not to have it.

[andy gibson]

Re: Idiotic nonsense

https://frinkiac.com/comic?b=AQIBBlMwN0UwNYU1DAABEvQBygMTCmdvIGJhY2sgdG8gUnVzc2lhLgA

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Idiotic nonsense

A mate of mine who works in the oil and gas industry told me something interesting about the Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, pipelines etc. He said that he’s heard that the refineries are getting a lot of pressure from the state to have things up and running as quickly as possible, given the fuel shortage in Russia. Therefore corners are being cut with safety testing in refineries that have been hit. So normally, if there is a fire even if the pipe works/pipeline/storage vessel survives the fire, you have to pressure test the affected equipment. Metal characteristics change with heat as any grade school student can tell you, let alone a refinery engineer. Would you really want to run oil at pressure through untested heat affected metalwork? Are they really doing that in Russia, he says they’ve heard that yes they are. He says it’s not something that you should nor would do in most places, probably wouldn’t do it in Russia if you weren’t under heavy political demands to do so.

[Androgynous Cupboard]

Re: Idiotic nonsense

See also the new law introduced by Putin this week which allows the state to unilaterally take over businesses considered critical (logistics, fuel, transport) but that have made insufficient efforts to harden against - or recover rapidly enough from - attacks. The state giveth, the state taketh away. No wonder Putin thinks he's God.

Looking at Thames Water I can't say I'm not a little envious, but that's a different issue.

[Androgynous Cupboard]

Re: Idiotic nonsense

Wait until we tell Jellied Eel about Clifford Tower in York, he'll start wanging on about sending money to Yorkshire.

[Casca]

Keep up the russian shitposting. You really are a piece of work...

[Anonymous Coward]

Russia's production rate is measured by the number of teenagers and press-ganged foreigners it can throw into the grinder for its thoroughly misguided "special military operation" AKA invasion, isn't it? If they last more than half an hour on the front line they're doing well.

Which is why when all is said and done you prefer to post your fan fiction from the EU.

[Anonymous Coward]

Only the Ukrainians are resorting to press gangs, but you knew that already, didn't you.

Busification (Ukrainian: Бусифікація, Russian: бусификация) is a term that emerged in Ukrainian society and media to describe a controversial method of forced conscription into the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the ongoing Russian invasion. The word refers to situations in which employees of territorial recruitment centers (TCC) and law enforcement officers forcibly load men of conscription age into buses.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Busification

BTW, the Ukrainian manpower situation has deteriorated to such an extent that the conscription of women is now seriously being considered by the NATO puppet masters.

Retired US Lieutenant General and former presidential envoy Keith Kellogg backed the mobilization of women into Ukraine’s Defense Forces, arguing that they can fight as effectively as men.

Speaking with Anna Maksymchuk in an interview posted to Naspravdi MAX’s YouTube channel on Monday, Aug. 24, Kellogg said women’s service should be viewed as part of society’s broader contribution to the war.

“Do I think women should be mobilized into the army? My answer is yes, because they fight just as well as men,” Kellogg said.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/83010

Nothing shouts winning more than sending your nation's women to the frontline!

[elsergiovolador]

Too much vodka, comrade.

[Anonymous Coward]

The CIA Director landed in Moscow today. The game's almost up.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2092260563829047458

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Well he can't just call him - who knows who might be listening

[Anonymous Coward]

Yeah, it's important Zelensky isn't aware of what's just about to be agreed on Ukraine's behalf.

Conflicts like this always end without any meaningful involvement of the proxies and, in the vast majority of cases since WW2, it's been the US walking off with its tail between its legs.

In other news....

Zelensky’s presidential office deputy is being led out in handcuffs.

Not the first office head with proven corruption.

Who’s next?

https://x.com/Panchenko_X/status/2092155359578263942

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

>Zelensky’s presidential office deputy is being led out in handcuffs.

>Not the first office head with proven corruption.

How different from our own executive office

[Anonymous Coward]

Nice try.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is under pressure at home and abroad for stripping the independence of anti-corruption agencies whose work is seen as essential to Kyiv's path to join the European Union.

Amendments giving his appointed prosecutor more power over the two investigative bodies have drawn criticism from top EU officials and sparked the country's largest wartime protests.

https://www.reuters.com/world/zelenskiys-move-against-ukraines-anti-corruption-agencies-2025-07-23/

Make no mistake, Little Z is up to his neck in this long-running corruption scandal. The only reason it hasn't consumed him completely, thus far, is that he's still useful for certain people in very high places.

[Casca]

Afraid to post with a handle? Putin bootlicker

[JimboSmith]

Yeah the CIA director was in Moscow

US asked Ukraine to refrain from striking Moscow during CIA chief's visit, source says

The U.S. asked Ukraine not to strike Moscow and St. Petersburg while CIA Director John Ratcliffe is visiting Russia, a person familiar with the situation told the Kyiv Independent on Aug. 25.

"They don't believe in the strength of (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's air defenses," they said, adding that Kyiv agreed to pause strikes against the cities between Aug. 24 and 26.

Sounds very plausible to me. And Russia releases a decree that allows the state to effectively confiscate any “critical infrastructure” that the owners haven’t ensured the security of. So basically if they haven’t gone out and bought their own air defences it would seem Putin can seize it ‘temporarily’.

en.kremlin.ru/acts/news/80578

The Executive Order stipulates that, should an economic entity fail to take timely measures to ensure the security of critical infrastructure facilities in the Russian Federation, or fail to restore such facilities within the required timeframe, as per Government resolution issued at the President’s instruction, temporary administration may be introduced over all or part of the movable or immovable property of such an economic entity.

Critical infrastructure is suggested as being industrial, hazardous, communication, fuel and energy facilities, transport and logistics complexes etc. And before anyone says that you can’t get equipment like air defences very easily, it’s obvious they should have been shopping at the same military surplus shops that the Little Green Men were shopping at before going into Crimea.

Putin Comes Clean On Crimea's Little Green Men

At the time Mr Putin flatly denied they were his troops, that he was in the process of annexing part of another European country.

He said all their equipment could easily be bought in a military surplus shop.

Simple really.

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

>Nothing shouts winning more than sending your nation's women to the frontline!

I thought the motherland were in favour of equality ?

[Anonymous Coward]

Well, it is easier than sending agents after all of the young men who emigrated to western Europe when the Russians invaded. EU goverments would get suspicious if Ukranians living all over the EU started getting whacked.

[DoctorPaul]

You mean like the Russian women in WW2 who proved to be superb snipers, pilots and tank commanders - seem to recall that one even bought her own tank and insisted on operating it to avenge the death of her husband.

[Casca]

Oh look, a JE look alike. Or is it JE?

[Elongated Muskrat]

It's his alter-ego Zalivnaya Riba

[Elongated Muskrat]

Oh look, It's Jeel come to spout some agitprop for his daddy Vladimir Putin.

[Fr. Ted Crilly]

And then, hey presto it's 2 million a pop and 3 years late in getting into service.

Now is the goal not later on and late/obsolescent.

[Marcus A.]

Microstrip Doppler radars good out to a kilometer or more have gotten remarkably inexpensive.

[HereIAmJH]

Drone dogfighting

I wonder if there are already any developments to fit a barrel for 10-20 shots of standard shotgun ammunition into those air frames.

Just like how air warfare evolved. Next will be drone dogfighting. I wonder if we'll end up with fighter and bomber classes of drones. Of course, since there are no humans on board, instead of wasting weight on weapons, just make your drone 'fighter' lightweight and highly maneuverable. Big motor, lots of fuel, and just crash into the enemy drone. Maybe built around a titanium or depleted uranium core.

This is going to expand conversations on where humans should continue to be in the control loop.

[Old Used Programmer]

Re: Drone dogfighting

Perhaps you mean "built around a *Tungsten* or depleted Uranium" core? Titanium is quite light weight. It would be like choosing either Titanium or Aluminum.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Drone dogfighting

Isaw a video of Ukrainians sucessfully intercepting drones using a prop driven training aircraft and a bloke hanging out the window with a gun.

Do we have any Bristol Beaufighter or Blenheims we could pawn off to them? Nippy without being too fast and a turret in the rear. I guess a good few WW2 designs would be quite handy for taking down larger drones.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Drone dogfighting

Boulton Paul Defiant?

[DoctorPaul]

Re: Drone dogfighting

Was that the one with the rear facing turret with 4 machine guns? Think I heard stories about how Luftwaffe pilots would mistake them for something like a Hurricane, adopt the standard attack path from above and behind and get one hell of a nasty shock as they closed in for the "kill"

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Drone dogfighting

DoctorPaul,

Yes, it had the rear facing turret. By all accounts it was a decent airframe, but the heavy turret killed performance. And the total lack of any forward firing guns killed the plane - and sadly quite a few pilots.

It was one of the many good/interesting ideas that were tried in the 1930s, when technology was changing so fast that nobody was quite sure what would work - or how different technologies compared with each other.

[hugo tyson]

Fit a gun?

Recoil may well be an issue for a lightweight low-power UAV? See "tank-busting" WWII aircraft which had very limited fire count because they slowed right down.

Methinks a scheme where it fires until it stalls, then recovers and flies home, or just possibly recovers and goes on to kill again :-) might just be feasible - if there's enough altitude. But if the recovery is not guaranteed you may as well dispose the drone for a more certain kill, that's the economic logic.

[John F Jennings]

Re: Fit a gun?

better to fit a rocksalt or modified rocksalt or grit shell. Range would be short - but you are not trying to hit something at 100 yards. Mass would be low (so you could carry more rounds). Collateral would be low as the shell would be dust by the time it hit the ground.

lower barrel length is an advantage in increased spread, gun weight and overall length

the recoil would likey require a recoilless design (which would be expensive) - not standard rounds - but the whole unit would be reusable.

At least until gerands carry Aphid (the russians do have an old (and current), very light all aspect heatseaker missile - 44Kg total weight - less than a gerand can carry - approx 30,000 made (though many sold to third countries).)

[Evaluator]

There you go, Ukraine developing more awesome weapons to take Moscow. Kudos. Can we maybe bump up the timeline and get it over with?

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

1, These are air defence systems

2, Nobody wants to take Moscow

[Anonymous Coward]

>2, Nobody wants to take Moscow

Napoleon ?

[Anonymous Coward]

It's already over with.

The EU didn't get dibs on the minerals and other resources. America has signed a deal for the ones it wants meaning Russia can't go further and Russia has said it's not going to give up the minerals on the land it already has.

What do you think this war was really all about? Why do you think they put a clown (comedian) in power?

Add to that the Russian speaking parts of Ukraine, the American spy bases on the border, the threat of Ukraine joining Nato and their Nazi soldiers. You had the perfect situation for this land grab to happen as each side could claim to their own people it was justified. Let's not even get started on the billions the clown has taken from the west which will be paid back for in minerals and other resources, we in the UK only finished paying America for WW2 in 2004. You don't think it's free do you in this capitalist world? All that money will have to be paid back and I bet that clown took his cut for when he leaves power.

I feel sorry for the Ukrainian people if I'm honest.They could have prospered as part of Europe with the resources they had and now what have they got? Nothing. Bombed to shit so two superpowers could divvy up their resources. What do you think America is going to try with Canada and Greenland? The only reason they haven't gone into Africa is because China is already there. I really don't think people understand how much these precious metals, minerals and stuff are worth. If you don't have them you can't build tech or bombs and if you can't build bombs you're screwed.

[Anonymous Coward]

What do you think this war was really all about? Why do you think they put a clown (comedian) in power?

Could you leave Trump out of it, please.

[Anonymous Coward]

All you are risking is some bootlicker deciding that saving all of the nuclear weapons for America will be a waste of time and why not just use them now.

[BoHu]

Looks great

It should be particularly useful if Shahed-like (or other) attack drones get upgraded with jet engines. It's best to be prepared ...

And the Storm Shadow / Apache Scalp-EG tech transfer News is great too imho! Let's do more of that and get this conflict and needless casualties to end fast, without surrender of those who valiantly fight to maintain their 35 years of freedom from the pissant rectums in the Kremlin.

Down with Putin and his cronies! Glory to Ukraine!

[John F Jennings]

Re: Looks great

Its not if - its when - the current Gerand drones are jet powered.

Do you think a ukrainian scalp could be made in less than a year or 2? Dream on - its an opportunity for a black trade. As to maintaining their freedom - they have sold what wasnt stolen by their oligarchs to Nato, EU & blackrock - the country is financially doomed and depopulated.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Looks great

John F Jennings is incorrect. Not all the Geran (Russian upgrade of the Shahed) drones are jet powered. But Russia have a jet version - and have been using them for at least a year. So they now often send mixed flights of jet and prop powered ones into Ukraine.

The upside of Shahed/Geran was that they're cheap. But as Ukraine counter them, Russia has to keep upgrading them in order to get some through. Which puts the price up. Which both makes them more expensive, and so literally less bang for their buck, but also means that Ukraine are more able to justify using more expensive methods to shoot them down.

There are loads of estimates out there of how much a Geran costs, from $20k for the original Shaheds (though I've also seen suggestions that this is Iran's cost and they were charging Russia $100k each) - to $50k-$70k for current Gerans. The jet ones will be even more expensive. A British Martlet missile costs about £70k. A bit of a waste to use one on a $20k Shahed - though not an unreasonable cost difference, but looks much better against a $70k drone.

I'll ignore whatever the other crap was about.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Looks great

But Russia have a jet version - and have been using them for at least a year. So they now often send mixed flights of jet and prop powered ones into Ukraine.

Along with decoys, ISR drones and missiles..

The upside of Shahed/Geran was that they're cheap. But as Ukraine counter them, Russia has to keep upgrading them in order to get some through.

They're cheap, and Russia can produce thousands a month. As Ukraine runs out of air defences, more get through so the cost to Russia goes down, not up. Plus Russia has also introduced cheaper missiles..

...but also means that Ukraine are more able to justify using more expensive methods to shoot them down.

Nope. You haven't balanced your equation. Russia uses cheap strike drones and missiles, which it can mass produce. Ukraine's been using $1m+ PAC-3 interceptors to try and shoot those down. Ukraine, and the West is out of those interceptors. Russia isn't showing much sign of being out of ammo, we are. Ukraine's justification is simple. If they can't shoot down a drone or missile, then something is going to go boom.

So maybe this new drone will work and will stop Russia destroying Ukraine's energy and logistics before winter sets in. Assuming it works, assuming they can produce enough of them, assuming Russia doesn't destroy their manufacturing or more likely storage sites and assuming Russia doesn't counter them.

Or there's Burnham. Back from being a human shield at Ukraine's Dependence Day celebration. Sorry Vlod, no weapons to give you, but here's some blueprints! Great. What's Ukraine supposed to do? Fold them into paper planes and throw them at Oreshniks? But by being a joint effort, MBDA will be able to unlock a few billion from Ursula's latest slush fund. It's highly unlikely Ukraine's going to be able to produce any missiles in Ukraine any time soon, and even assuming it does, Russia had been shooting most of the Storm Shadows we'd already donated down. Plus of course it's an ALCM and Ukraine doesn't have much in the way of 'A'.

But I guess on the bright side, the blueprints will probably end up on the War Thunder forums soon.

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: Looks great

Ukraine uses Patriot to defend against ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles. These are actually quite few in number, so while certainly very problematic, they are unlikely to be decisive.

Against air-, ground and sea-launched cruise missiles and the considerable range of drones Russia uses, Ukraine has a considerable range of air-defence assets that are proving to be highly (though not completely) effective. This includes a variety of full size, very capable (and expensive) SAMs, smaller, lighter and cheaper systems (mostly MANPADS and FrankenSAM systems), and a wide variety of gun systems from advanced auto-canon with special and expensive ammo, to 50 cal MGs and twin Maxim machine guns of WWII vintage. They also have a range of airborne system, including APKWSII guided rockets, assorted air-to-air missiles, aircraft cannon, and a variety of fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft using door or rear-cockpit gunners with MGs and even shotguns. Plus, of course, an extensive EW element.

In fact, as we see with the nearly daily reports of another Russian oil refinery / arms factory / ship being hit, Ukrainian air-defence seems more capable than Russian.

Notably, when the US CIA boss flew into Moscow this week, the US had to ask the Ukrainians from refraining from launching attacks on the Moscow area during the visit - the safety of a senior US official depended on the goodwill of the Ukrainians, not the air-defence capability of the Russians.

As for Storm Shadow - it was approaching the end of its service life when the UK (and France) supplied it to Ukraine, the provision of the IP is effectively just us saying that if they want to keep using it, they are free to build it themselves. As for the Russians shooting most of them down, that is quite comical, given all the evidence that we have to prove otherwise, including Russian video showing a storm shadow fly in daylight directly over the Russian SAM battery trying and failing to hit it, the destruction of the Russian Black Sea Fleet HQ by two Storm Shadows, and the 'sinking' of the submarine Rostov-on-Don by a Storm Shadow while it was in dry dock in Sevastopol surrounded by the best air defence assets the Russians had at their disposal.

And Ukraine appears to have plenty of 'A' for launching Storm Shadow. The original SU-24 aircraft appear to still exist in some numbers, though clearly they have been depleted, and the Mirages supplied by the French have made up any wastage amongst the SU-24 fleet. Given the innovation of the Ukrainians, at least some of the F16's they have would probably be upgraded for Storm Shadow if need be (the airframe can handle it), plus the anticipated Gripen deliveries from Sweden will add yet another launch platform for Storm Shadow.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Looks great

"Ukraine uses Patriot to defend against ballistic missiles and hypersonic missiles. These are actually quite few in number, so while certainly very problematic, they are unlikely to be decisive."

Ukrainska Pravda has learned that Russia has no shortage of missiles and has the capacity to produce more than 200 cruise and ballistic missiles per month. Its largest stockpiles are made up of Oniks and Kalibr missiles as well as RM-48U missiles for S-400 air defence systems, which Russia has adapted for use against ground targets.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/08/20/8049494/

But the situation is dire when it comes to intercepting Russia’s Iskander and Kinzhal ballistic missiles. Only Patriots have achieved confirmed kills. Meanwhile, Russian production now outstrips America’s: Russia is producing an estimated 1,440 ballistic missiles per year compared to the US manufacturing 650 Patriots. To make matters worse, the US and its allies in the Middle East expended 1,700 Patriots – roughly three years of production – during the first five-weeks of conflict with Iran.

https://www.chathamhouse.org/2026/07/ukraine-needs-help-against-russian-missiles-now-what-more-can-allies-do?

Ouch!

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: Looks great

Would your 'ouch' be where you realised that you didn't read my post correctly?

Since I distinguished between ballistic and hypersonic missiles on one hand, and a variety of cruise missiles on the other?

And thus was entirely consistent with the claim of "200 cruise and ballistic missiles per month"?

Both Oniks and Kalibr are cruise missiles, not ballistic/hypersonic.

As for the ballistic missiles- I'll deal with that separately (it'll be a long post)

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: Looks great

So looking at Russian ballistic missile production, and its implications.

There is a bit of a mis-match in the figures you present - 'more than 200 cruise and ballistic missiles per month' equals >2400 per year

Then we have 1440 ballistic missiles per year

But the cruise missiles are it's largest stockpile, and are cheaper/easier to manufacture. It could be that cruise missile production has been cut right back, but it doesn't seem likely.

Current ballistic missile production in Russia is likely double-figures per month. The Ukrainians recently claimed that they (the Russians) are pushing it up to about 100/month, 1300 per year. Given that this was part of an appeal for more high-end air-defence assets (ie Patriot missiles), it is unlikely that the Ukrainians would under-estimate that production figure; more likely they would exaggerate it.

All munitions have a failure rate, and for reasons that will become obvious, I'm going to work with an annual production and effective deployment of 1200 ballistic missiles.

The main types of Russian ballistic missiles are the Tochka-U and Iskander and perhaps Kinzhal.

Tochka-U has a warhead weight of circa 420kg, if I recall. Iskander is about 700kg. Kinzhal is I think about 500kg. Let’s be generous, and assume 750kg of warhead (HE) per Russian ballistic missile. So that is 900 tonnes of HE dropping on Ukraine per year, through ballistic missiles (and now you can see why I went with 1200 missiles per year).

In WWII, from 1944 onwards, the RAF was launching near nightly bombing raids against Germany, with typically several hundred up to 1000 bombers per night (normally spread over multiple targets). Let’s say that’s about 500 bombers per night. A Lancaster carried 14x1000lbs bombs against mostly industrial targets, or a 4000lb cookie plus 3x1000lbs HE and a shed load of incendiaries for more general use – let’s say only 7000lbs, or 3 tonnes. Per bomber.

The USAAF was doing similar – B17s carried 4000 to 5000lbs of bombs – lets call that 2 Tonnes, and again go with a rough 500 bombers per day.

So every 24 hours, the Germans had 500 loads of bombs, each of 5 tonnes (RAF + USAAF combined tonnage). HE content of a bomb varies, but about 60% of its weight is about right – so every 24 hours, the Germans were hit by 1500 tonnes of HE.

The total Russian ballistic missile effort for a year, assuming they actually get to the production target assumed and most actually hit their target, will deliver on Ukraine roughly 60% of the HE dropped on Germany every single day from 1944 until the end of the war.

The above also ignores all the attempts that Ukraine will be making to not shoot the arrow, but shoot the archer (the delivery system - the aircraft or ground launch vehicles) or the Fletcher (the factories making the missiles, fuel, etc)

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Looks great

Yeah, now run the numbers on how much high explosive can be packed onboard a long-range Ukrainian drone and you'll see that they're mere pin prick attacks in comparison, especially considering only a tiny fraction are actually managing to breach Russian air defences.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Looks great

The total Russian ballistic missile effort for a year, assuming they actually get to the production target assumed and most actually hit their target, will deliver on Ukraine roughly 60% of the HE dropped on Germany every single day from 1944 until the end of the war.

You're mixing apples and oranges.. Plus relative efficiency.

A lot of the bombs dropped during WW2 missed their targets, missiles tend to be more accurate. Plus in HE terms, the biggest by far is the amount of FAB-250 to -3000kg bombs, with or without glide bomb kits, or more recently rocket-assist kits that starts bringing 'dumb' bomb ranges closer to IRBM ranges. Ukrainian MoD estimates around 250+ per day, or 8,000+ a month. There are similarities though, ie using long-range weapons to destroy ports, factories, warehouses etc, rail or lorry yards to hamper logistics.. And then the dreaded 'artillery prep' with glide bombs to soften targets ahead of ground assaults.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Looks great

Jellied Eel,

That's a particularly ill-informed post from you. Normally you spout Russian propaganda talking points, but at least loosely based on reality. And when you're being less propaganda-y, often make well-informed points.

Ukraine don't waste Patriots on Geran drones. Early in the war, when they had stupid amounts of older S300 missiles, I believe they were using those on drones. Because both Russia and Ukraine had vast stocks of old Soviet air defence kit. Sadly Ukraine mostly didn't get large numbers of PAC-3 Patriots either, they got the less capable PAC-2 - on the grounds that when donating to Ukraine you start at the back of your weapons warehouse first, and give out the stuff that's getting close to its designed end-of-life date.

As the Evil Dr Smith said, in his usual non-evil way, Ukraine have a very dense and deep air defence network - and if you believe their published figures - shoot down 90-100% of the Geran drones most nights. This is one of the main things their air force do, plus they have lots of short range guns and missiles.

They're going to need to up their game on this, because the Gerans are getting faster and harder to shoot down - and I presume Russia will up the mix of jet to prop ones as they ramp up manufacturing. But also because all those F-16s have been heavily used, and were quite close to the end of their airframe lives when donated. I'm sure they all got the full overhaul and checking/strengthening when donated, but they're doing a lot of low flying - and won't last forever. So jet powered air defence drones looks like a better idea. Plus if you can have an affordable surface to air drone with a range of say 20-50 miles - same as a medium range SAM - you only need about 10% of the number of air defence units as if you're using short range guns and missiles (like Martlet). That's a hell of a lot of personnel being used in rear area units spread all over the country, that could be consolidated and used for other duties. The observer Corps in 1940 had 12,000 personnel - and that was to cover the much smaller UK, in very small teams for observation, they didn't also need weapons operators - so Ukraine will be using many tens of thousands of people for this.

So your equation is wrong. The Gerans are getting more expensive. The EW ones and the ones with anti-air missiles cost more than the Geran 2. A quick look online suggests the jet Geran-4 is around twice as expensive as the prop Geran-2. Which makes sense, it's not using a moped motor but a small jet. Sure Russia can afford to throw 30,000 of these a month at Ukraine - but that's c.$1.5 billion a month for the prop Geran and so c $3 billion for the jet Geran-4. $36 billion a year is quite a lot! That's about 20% of Russia's entire military budget - official defence budget for Russia this year is supposed to be $175bn.

Even if you don't believe Ukraine's figures for what they shoot down, Russia's bombing is having an effect on Ukraine's economy but it's not anywhere close to stopping it. Ukraine are pumping out vast amounts of drones and ammo - to the extent that Ukraine's drone companies have been begging the government to change the law, because they've ramped up production more than Ukraine can use, and want to export for profits - and the government were saying no until the whole Iran war kicked off and they could suddenly get lots of diplomatic clout and cash from the rich Arab states. I would point out that German WWII production peaked in about July 1944! That was the point that they were unable to keep working round the extremely heavy bombing and things finally started to fall apart. The Allies basically destroyed the Luftwaffe in the West in Autumn 43 - it never recovered, but it still took another 9 months before German production fell. German strategic bombing was even less effective against Britain and the Soviets - and if you want a more recent example it seems that recent US intel is a lot less optimistic about the damage they've done to Iran's drone/missile industry than it was a few months ago.

You need to do a bit less wishing, and a little more analysing.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Looks great

Normally you spout Russian propaganda talking points, but at least loosely based on reality.

Nope, that's just the idiocy demonstrated by many people here, including your good self. I don't blindly swallow and regurgitate Ukraine and the West's talking points, therefore it must be Russian propaganda..

Ukraine don't waste Patriots on Geran drones.

Did you miss the bit where I said 'decoys'? Ok, so it's hard to spoof a supersonic or hypersonic missile with a drone, it's easier to spoof a subsonic cruise missile with a subsonic jet powered drone. Lots of incoming missiles, which should Ukraine try to intercept?

- shoot down 90-100% of the Geran drones most nights.

Yep, I'm sure they do. Sometimes more than 100%. If you count ground interception, then they're successful in destroying all of them. And yet videos show explosions, large and small, complete with secondary detonations. And after pretty much every 90-100% 'success', there's always a child killed, an apartment hit, because for some reason unknown to statistics or probability, the only missiles & drones that Ukraine fails to intercept are the ones that hit residential buildings.

This is one of the main things their air force do, plus they have lots of short range guns and missiles.

What air force? It's running out of aircraft, it's running out of air-air missiles and it's running out of hours on pre-loved aircraft that have been donated. But you should also compare and contrast videos of air defence working in Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Iran, the Gulf States. Some show search lights, AAA tracers and missiles heading up. Videos from the last couple of months from places like Odessa or Kiev show mostly one-way traffic. Plus AAA is very short range and might knock the wings off a slow moving Geran, but they probably won't detonate the warhead.

Plus if you can have an affordable surface to air drone with a range of say 20-50 miles - same as a medium range SAM - you only need about 10% of the number of air defence units as if you're using short range guns and missiles (like Martlet).

Nope. You have pretty much the same geometry and manpower problem, as to an extent does Russia. Start with Kiev, draw some range circles around it. The further out you go, the more air defence teams you need to cover that sector, especially if you overlap. Then because Russia can attack from pretty much any direction, you also need enough interceptors ready and waiting to deal with an incoming swarm. The more interceptor and air defence teams you deploy, the easier they are to detect and then use loitering munitions to eliminate. Sometimes having a lot of technicals waiting in garages can be more effective.

The EW ones and the ones with anti-air missiles cost more than the Geran 2. A quick look online suggests the jet Geran-4 is around twice as expensive as the prop Geran-2. Which makes sense, it's not using a moped motor but a small jet.

You're slowly getting it.. So you make 10,000 simple attack Geran's a month. You make say, 100 EW, ISR or air-air versions a month. You mentioned Ukraine using their airforce to shoot down drones. What happens when the drones shoot back? How much does a Geran or similar with a couple of cheap, short range air-air missiles cost vs an F-16? Or a piston engined plane? Or a helicopter with 2 pilots and a couple of gunners?

That's about 20% of Russia's entire military budget - official defence budget for Russia this year is supposed to be $175bn.

Pretty impressive what Russia is achieving compared to say, the US $1.5tn defence budget. Or the EU has a GDP of around $23tn, and is supposed to be spending another $1tn+ on 'defence'. Latvia's been demanding 7bn from the EU to compensate it on the lost earnings from their trade with Russia and increased 'defence' spending. Finland joined NATO, that'll teach those Russians! Well, apart from Finland's economy heading down the toilet and unemployment rising following the decision to sanction itself from what used to be one of their main trading partners. Oh, and of course Ukraine. $500bn poured in and suffering from increasing shrinkflation.

But it's been a good racket, if you've been a defence contractor, or in Zelensky's government. Too bad we can't really afford to keep it up. Or it could be good news, ie people asking why we're expected to spend $1m+ per pop on wunderwaffe when Russia, Iran, Ukraine are churning out weapons that are good enough for government work in far larger quantities and a lower cost. But probably why Russia's in no rush to end the conflict when they're bleeding out the EU. Much the same with the US, who never wanted closer economic ties between the EU and Russia.

Even if you don't believe Ukraine's figures for what they shoot down, Russia's bombing is having an effect on Ukraine's economy but it's not anywhere close to stopping it. Ukraine are pumping out vast amounts of drones and ammo - to the extent that Ukraine's drone companies have been begging the government to change the law, because they've ramped up production more than Ukraine can use, and want to export for profits

By Jove, I think you're getting it! Ukraine claims to be pumping out vast amounts of drones and ammo, and you seem to actually believe them. And arms dealers being arms dealers will of course want to be maximising profits.. Whether that's flogging donated weapons to drug cartels or African war lords. But also potentially good news, like if true, then we don't need to be pouring so much cash into the money pit that is Ukraine.

and if you want a more recent example it seems that recent US intel is a lot less optimistic about the damage they've done to Iran's drone/missile industry than it was a few months ago.

Since when has BDA ever been reliable? But yep, bit of a clue in the way Iran's thrice obliterated missile forces keep yeeting missiles in the general direction of US bases in the region. It's almost as if 'long range sanctions' don't really work.. Or just waste resources. So Ukraine had been launching 300+ drone swarms in the direction of 'Russia's Amazon', because everyone knows that BAE, Lockheed, Raytheon etc buy all their components from Amazon to take advantage of Prime delivery. The last week or so, the swarms have been shrinking, so Russia may have become better at targetting production & storage sites, and seem to be getting better at shooting them down.

Meanwhile, Russia is steadily closing in on Ukraine's 'fortress belt', and winter is of course coming..

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Re: Looks great

Back in the Falkands war, British troops called the shoulder launched anti-tank rockets they used to clear Argentine positions as "Bungalows" because they supposedly cost £30k, the same as a seaside retirement bungalow

Funny how housing has gone up 10x but weapons got cheaper.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Looks great

Bungalows? Not heard that before. I presume that was the Milan anti-tank missile. Which we used at the time, and was heavily used as a bunker-buster in the Falklands. Not too many tanks around (though Argentina did have M113 APCs). The equivalent long range anti-tank missile now would be the Javelin (about $100k a pop I think) - so probably a similar amount with inflation. But the Martlet is designed for bunkers (helicopters, and most vehicles that aren't tanks), and costs around £50k-£70k - so, as you say, cheaper with inflation. Might still get you a bungalow in Middlesbrough though?

Martlet's also nice, because it fires off the same seeker and mount as Starstreak. If we could get a nice anti-tank missile for the same mount, we could replace Javelin and have a very nice battlefield system for pretty much every short-range missile use you want. Would also go nicely on the Stormer replacement - making our tactical anti-air units also capable of dealing with tanks.

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Re: Looks great

Yes Milan, knew it began with "M" but that didn't narrow it down very much !

I assume missiles all start with "M" for the benefit of Marines (Paras not being able to read at all)

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Looks great

Kind of you to assume that Marines know how to read...

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Re: Looks great

Well they can at least trace the M with their fingers.

[Anonymous Coward]

A handful of vicious assholes

You can count the number of dangerous world leaders/dictators on one hand.

Seems shit always floats to the top.

[MiguelC]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

It depends on what you consider to be world leaders. Do you mean leaders that might impact a large part of the world, or just leaders of their respective countries? Because if it's the latter, I have bad news for you... Almost 3 quarters of the world population live now under authoritarian regimes

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

The only handful of vicious assholes in this conflict are Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron, Ursula von der Leyen, Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden who bullied the Ukrainians into rejecting the already-initialed peace deal with the Russians in March 2022.

David Arahamiya, leader of the President's “Servant of the People” party and head of the Ukrainian delegation during last year’s talks with Russia, has revealed that Russia proposed ending the war in spring 2022 on the condition that Ukraine abandon its NATO aspirations and adopt a neutral stance.

“They were ready to end the war if we took – as Finland once did – neutrality and made commitments that we would not join NATO. This was the key point,” he added.

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24645

Instead, the Ukrainians are well on the way to losing the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts together with hundreds of thousands of lives and an economy that's completely destroyed. Meanwhile, the collective West is in on the hook for just shy of $400 bn and counting.

The cost of appearing virtuous is extremely high!

[EvilDrSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

"Additionally, he emphasized a lack of trust in the Russian position.

"There is no, and there was no, trust in the Russians that they would do it. That could only be done if there were security guarantees."

Arahamiya clarified that signing such an agreement without guarantees would have left Ukraine vulnerable to a second incursion.

“They would have come in more prepared, because they came in, in fact, unprepared for such resistance,” Arakhamia said."

The Ukrainians, quite understandably, did not trust the Russians to keep their word, but assumed that a 'deal' on Russian terms was delayed genocide for Ukraine.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Yes, of course the officials involved are going to use every reason they can think of to justify "their" decision. However, the fact remains that the deal was initialed and the West said no, rip it up.

[Yet Another Anonymous coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

If only the British and Prussians hadn't opposed Napoleon.

Russia could now be French and eating croissants and Marx would have ended up as a grumpy polytechnic lecturer in Manchester

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

The only handful of vicious assholes in this conflict are Boris Johnson, Emmanuel Macron, Ursula von der Leyen, Olaf Scholz and Joe Biden who bullied the Ukrainians into rejecting the already-initialed peace deal with the Russians in March 2022.

Funny how this supposedly initialed peace deal has never been seen in public anywhere isn’t it. I mean you would have thought if it existed Putin would have publicly published it for all to see but strangely enough he never has nor anyone in his government. Gosh something that would show up all the people you listed and make them look fools (alright with Boris you don’t have to make him look like a fool) and yet it has never seen the light of day. I seen me a mermaid once. I've even seen me a shark eat a octopus, but I ain't never seen no phantom document the Russians claim was initialed.

Davyd Arakhamiia Doesn’t seem to think it exists and he’d be one of the best people to know about this, as he was there.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/24/7430282/

Davyd Arakhamiia, leader of the Servant of the People faction who led the Ukrainian delegation at "peace" talks with the Russians in Belarus and Türkiye in 2022, said that the Russian delegation promised Kyiv peace in exchange for refusing to join NATO, but the Ukrainians did not believe them.

Details: Journalist Moseichuk noted that at a meeting with an African delegation, Vladimir Putin showed a supposedly ready-made draft peace agreement with Ukraine agreed during the negotiations in Belarus, which was allegedly initiated in Istanbul (Türkiye).

According to Putin, there were 18 articles in the so-called agreement On the Permanent Neutrality of Ukraine and Security Guarantees, where "everything is spelled out, from military equipment to personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," and allegedly the document was signed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation. Arakhamiia stressed: "For some reason, Putin did not publish this document. Why do you think? If he had such a document, he would have made it public."

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

“Funny how this supposedly initialed peace deal has never been seen in public anywhere isn’t it.”

I find it funnier that the only people who I’ve ever seen mention this mythical vaporware of a document anywhere are:

People online backing the Russian position and trying to convince others to do so [often anonymously]

Oh and that bastion of truth, Putin himself.

I see another Wildberries depot was burned to the ground in the Tambov region yesterday.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Perhaps all the copies of the document were stored in Wildberries warehouses - awaiting delivery?

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

I see another Wildberries depot was burned to the ground in the Tambov region yesterday.

Yey!! Winning!! Russian women won't be able to order their leggings.. Well, except other online retailers exist in Russia. Meanwhile, last night 300+ drones and missiles using a lot of ISR drones and decoys. Ukraine shot down some of those, stuff still blew up, and Ukraine further drained their interceptor stocks..

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Given losses at Wildberries are in the billions of dollars according to the Russians, and if as suggested elsewhere that a lot of the stock wasn’t insured, then yes that’s an issue. An economic issue that afftects the state finances which are already stretched.

“Margarita Yevstigneyeva, head of Russia's Association of Suppliers of Goods for E-Commerce Platforms, said more than 400,000 sellers have been affected by the attacks on Wildberries warehouses, with total losses amounting to RUB 600-700 billion (US$6-7 billion), including lost revenue.

It could cost Wildberries between RUB 147 and 223 billion (US$1.7-2.6 billion) to rebuild its warehouses and infrastructure following the Ukrainian drone attacks.”

Then there are the resultant tax losses if businesses and individuals cannot pay their taxes due to their stock being more than a bit flammable. Talking of flammable, bit embarrassing to be a serious Gas/petrol producer and having to import the stuff because thanks to the war your refineries are out of action. Wouldn’t it be just plain awful if the Russian heating oil stocks were destroyed too with winter coming, actually now I think about it, no it wouldn’t.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Given losses at Wildberries are in the billions of dollars according to the Russians, and if as suggested elsewhere that a lot of the stock wasn’t insured, then yes that’s an issue.

An issue for.. who, exactly? I know this has gotten people all excited, with elite graphic designers producing posters showing Wildberries warehouses, then putting red lines through them. Yey! Winning!

So try to imagine a scenario. Rather than 'Russias Amazon' taking up smoking, imagine it's the UKs. What would you do? Would you cease to function, or would you.. I dunno, buy whatever you wanted from somewhere else? Might take more than 1-click, or a bit of exercise, or a day or so longer before a package arrived, but life goes on.

It could cost Wildberries..

Yep. It could cost Wildberries..

Then there are the resultant tax losses if businesses and individuals cannot pay their taxes due to their stock being more than a bit flammable.

You're not too hot on the concept of business or taxes, are you? Taxes would be due irrespective of whether Wildberries has gone up in smoke, or not. If Wildberries hasn't sold something, then no tax would be due. If someone bought whatever they wanted somewhere else, tax would still be due on that transaction. If I spend $10 at Walmart instead of Amazon, it's still $10. Although if Amazon burned down, taxes might actually increase given Amazon's aggressive tax minimisation strategies.

Talking of flammable, bit embarrassing to be a serious Gas/petrol producer and having to import the stuff because thanks to the war your refineries are out of action

Probably less embarrassing than having no refineries at all, and due to the actions of a certain country, finding it harder to import oil, gas and refined products when winter is coming. Or you just send oil to Belarus, let them refine it and remind them how their friends are. The EU might want to bring Belarus into their sphere of influence, but can't exactly keep Belarus's refineries going and those revenues rolling in. Oh, and of course Ukraine used to produce & refine oil, but can't any more. It's also struggling with diesel.. not to mention a lack of heating oil.

Wouldn’t it be just plain awful if the Russian heating oil stocks were destroyed too with winter coming, actually now I think about it, no it wouldn’t.

Good luck trying to do that. Heating oil isn't as flammable and Russia still has plenty of it in reserves. Ukraine on the other hand is far more dependent, and has far fewer supplies or suppliers.. Then again, if Ukraine hadn't wasted so many drones and missiles going after Wildberries, it might have been able to make more of an impact..

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Wasn’t aware of Wildberries until the Ukrainians started to burn them down but having looked at it the Russian government are giving:

a 12-month deferral on value-added tax (except VAT paid on imports into Russia), profit tax, and taxes under the simplified tax systems (USN and AUSN)

a deferral on advance payments for these taxes and on insurance contributions due between August 2026 and July 2027, which can then be paid in equal installments over the following year.

a suspension of tax audits for affected businesses through the end of 2026, with related procedural deadlines frozen for the same period.

So the AC-OP was right in that there will be tax effects from the warehouse fires. Also I would assume any business that is now out of business because their entire business went up in flames in a wildberries warehouse will just go bust. Heating oil doesn’t need to be flammable and no one mentioned it being flammable as far as I can see. It just needs to be stored somwhere drones can hit the storage vessels and cause large enough holes.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

So the AC-OP was right in that there will be tax effects from the warehouse fires.

Nope, and you even provided the answer in your own quote. A deferral, not a write-off, although some write-offs will probably be possible. Also cite your sources!

Also I would assume any business that is now out of business because their entire business went up in flames in a wildberries warehouse will just go bust.

Yep. That happens. Lots of high street retailers went bust when Amazon parked their tanks on the lawn. But if it was a good business with real demand, some other business will step in. And a cynic might suggest this is the strategy. Suppose you're sitting on a few billion that you've skimmed off of the money being poured into Ukraine. Why not short Wildberries, then invest in a new online retailer? Especially if you can also control which of your competitors might get droned.

But was also thinking. I haven't bought anything other than some Kindle books from Amazon for years, so if Amazon burned to the ground, I wouldn't really notice. If AWS datacentres did, then that might be more of an issue.. And Russia's been threatening to hit the UK, or UK interests because thanks to Burnham, it now regards us as a party to the conflict.

It just needs to be stored somwhere drones can hit the storage vessels and cause large enough holes.

So again, why waste drones on Wildberries? It might be that refineries are better protected now, and diving a drone into a tank might punch a hole in the top, but that can be patched up pretty quickly.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Davyd Arakhamiia Doesn’t seem to think it exists and he’d be one of the best people to know about this, as he was there.

One could also ask Denys Kireyev, because he was also there. Well, you can't ask him because the SBU murdered him. But only 4 days after the SMO began, so did the peace talks. Which started out fairly reasonably, ie autonomy for Crimea & the Donbas, no NATO and limits to the size of the UAF.

But Ukraine's Pravda is allegedly a reliable source, and like most media in Ukraine isn't controlled by Zelensky. There was nothing 'allegedly' initiated in Istanbul because those were a matter of public record, beginning on March 22nd, and there were 6 demands, not the 18 Ukraine claims. But then came the rather convenient Bucha 'massacre', and by 23rd June when Putin showed the document, it had expanded to 18.

But also-

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/24645

Arahamiya clarified that signing such an agreement without guarantees would have left Ukraine vulnerable to a second incursion.

“They would have come in more prepared, because they came in, in fact, unprepared for such resistance,” Arakhamia said.

According to the lawmaker, while another round of talks was underway in Istanbul, Boris Johnson unexpectedly came to Kyiv on April 9 and said that Ukraine "shouldn't sign anything with them at all – and let's just fight."

So Arakhamiia seems to have confirmed Johnson's role in the peace talks. No peace, let's just fight. Easy enough for him to say when he'd be far from the fighting and making money from it. But sadly our 'leaders' wanted this conflict because they'd make money from it, and if they're just fighting to the last Ukrainian, not risk much. And there have been no serious peace proposals from the West ever since, only pouring money & weapons into the conflict to keep it going, and escalating it.

And by serious, I mean something that doesn't start with a ceasefire demand given the previous Minsk deception. A lot of the propaganda around this conflict is heavy in projection, ie Arakhamia's comment about preparedness. Minsk was used to prepare Ukraine for their reconquest of Crimea, DPR, LPR. Russia was clearly 'unprepared' for the total conquest of Ukraine at the start of the SMO, because they only committed 2-300k vs Ukraine's 6-800k. So that worked as a show of force and got Ukraine to the negotiating table, at least until the negotiations were ended.

But the biggest political miscalculation was that Russia was really unprepared and unwilling to use force to achieve their SMO objectives.. Because Russia had been preparing and using the years from 2014-2022 (and earlier) to modernise their armed forces.. And we'd already done a dry-run for Ukraine's coup & subsequent actions with 2008's Georgian attempts to conquer South Ossetia. BoJo went 'Let's fight!', ignoring that Russia had already fought to protect their people and interests from NATO expansion and aggression. Russia's intervention in a brutal civil war on their border really shouldn't have surprised anyone. The only real surprise was just how woefully unprepared NATO was to fight the kind of peer-level conflict that it provoked.. Especially when NATO's raison d'etre was to fight first the Soviet Union, and then Russia.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

“But only 4 days after the SMO began, so did the peace talks. Which started out fairly reasonably, ie autonomy for Crimea & the Donbas, no NATO and limits to the size of the UAF.”

Crimea was an autonomous republic before the Russians invaded, or did you not know that?

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Crimea was an autonomous republic before the Russians invaded, or did you not know that?

I clearly know more than you do. Clue here-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Council_of_Crimea

Before 2014, the regional legislature of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was the Supreme Council of Crimea. It was a 100-member unicameral body that operated under the constitutions and laws of Ukraine and the autonomous republic. Its final election was held in October 2010.

Vladimir Konstantinov chaired the Supreme Council from 2010 until the Ukrainian parliament terminated the body's powers on 15 March 2014.

Kiev stripped Crimea of their autonomy following their coup, and then in a bit of a counter-coup, Crimea stripped Kiev of their authority over them. I'm sure someone will be along momentarily to wave a Gherkin..

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Yes it was Autonomous until after the Russian Little Green Men forced the referendum which was illegal under the constitution of Ukraine. I have a mate who is from Crimea and he says there wasn’t an option on the ballot paper for keeping the status quo. Him and most people he knew in Crimea were perfectly happy with that and not sure why there was a need for a referendum other than to help Putin. He doesn’t live in Crimea anymore, he moved after the referendum and then became a refugee when his new house was destroyed by the Russian forces after they poured in, in 2022. He now lives with friends in Poland and wonders if he’ll ever be able to go back to Crimea free of Russian troops etc.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Yes it was Autonomous until after the Russian Little Green Men forced the referendum which was illegal under the constitution of Ukraine. I have a mate who is from Crimea and he says there wasn’t an option on the ballot paper for keeping the status quo.

Not this again. I explained the last time you posted this garbage and revisionism, and as predicted you bring up the Gherkin.

- Crimean Autonomy was broken after the coup, and Nuland and Pyatt's chosen one formed a government and amended Ukraine's constitution.

- The second option on the ballot was to restore the status quo, ie to restore Crimea's autonomy and go back to the '91 version

Crimeans overwhelmingly voted for independence though, and then to join the Russian Federation. The status quo would also have meant Russia kept their basing rights, so your 'friend' would have had to wait until those agreements had expired. But many Ukrainians had their homes destroyed by Ukraine during the civil war that followed the coup, and Kiev's determination to de-russify Ukraine with their ethnic and cultural cleansing.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

No he says there was no option to keep the status quo which was under the Constitution of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea (1998). The thinking was and still is that The Russians wanted to go back to 1992 because that suited them better than the people of Crimea.

Quick question, are you Ukrainian or are you not? I ask because I’m more prepared to accept the word of someone who was involved in and lived through the whole era actually in Crimea/Ukraine and has first hand experience and knowledge.

I have no idea why you are referencing a pickle or 30 St Mary Axe neither does my friend.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

The thinking was and still is that The Russians wanted to go back to 1992 because that suited them better than the people of Crimea.

Do you accept that it was Kiev that removed Crimea's autonomy, not Russia? Especially as Crimea now has autonomy, albeit within the constitution of the Russian Federation. And do you accept that it was the Crimean people that voted for independence, and not Russia? And given that democratic choice, the Crimean people overwhelmingly voted for independence, rather than restoring the 1991 status quo?

Quick question, are you Ukrainian or are you not? I ask because I’m more prepared to accept the word of someone who was involved in and lived through the whole era actually in Crimea/Ukraine and has first hand experience and knowledge.

Quick question. Are you capable of doing your own research? I've previously cited evidence showing it was Kiev that removed Crimea's autonomy, and the text of the second option on the referendum. Given that, perhaps ask yourself why your 'friend' is either lying to you, or badly misinformed.. And then why that might be the case. If you ask your friend where the home he claims was destroyed by Russia was, and when that happened. Kiev destroyed a lot of Ukrainian's homes during the civil war, and sent Storm Shadow missiles into Donetsk a couple of days ago, killing civilians. I'd also ask if that home was in Western Ukraine because that area historically was majority Russian influenced, as shown in all the election results from 1991 to 2022 when Zelensky suspended democracy.

I have no idea why you are referencing a pickle or 30 St Mary Axe neither does my friend.

Then forgive me for doubting both you and your 'friend', especially given that you floated the 'little green men' meme, which usually goes hand in hand with Igor Girkin and his fantasies. Anyone that lived through that time period in Crimea should have been well aware of the Gherkin.. But it's sadly normal that 'nafobots' rely on repeating propaganda and misinformation, in the hopes that repetition allows their lies to spread and people are too lazy to do some very simple fact checking.

Others might also wonder why 'anonymous cowards' tend to be the ones promoting lies..

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

He says as far as he is aware the Ukrainian government still recognises the autonomous Republic of Crimea and it was the Crimean authority (under Russian control) who repealed the Crimean Constitution (1998). As you won’t (or cannot) anwer the question about whether you’re Ukrainian or not (didn’t think it was that hard) I’m going to assume you’re not and therefore further discussion pointless.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

I’m going to assume you’re not and therefore further discussion pointless.

Ok, so you put friendship over evidence, even though your 'friend' is obviously misinformed or lying, and doesn't understand why this conflict started?

But perhaps he can read this-

https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/891-18#Text

The text where Kiev dissolved the Crimean Parliament, thus removing their autonomy and violating a few treaties between Ukraine and Russia. Where you and your 'friend' are probably confused is even though Kiev removed Crimean autonomy, it obviously still has to recognise Crimea as part of Ukraine to try and retain a claim to it. It's undisputable that Kiev passed that law removing autonomy, therefore the 'autonomous Republic of Crimea' ceased to exist.

(Ok, so there's probably some legitimate dispute around the timing given the Rada's law happened just before the Crimean referendum. But that action pretty much sealed Crimea's fate and guaranteed the independence vote would win. Just one of the many mis-steps made by Kiev that could have avoided their civil war from escalating. But then Crimea's status was one of the main drivers behind the coup. NATO, the US and EU pressured Ukraine not to extend Russia's lease and basing rights, those were extended, so coup, and then claim Crimea for NATO. Which of course didn't work, and Ukrainians have been paying the price ever since. Oh, and also the way Kiev cut off Crimea's water to spite them for their impudence in defying the Banderites. Bit of a war crime, but nobody seems to care much about the war crimes committed by Kiev.)

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

I’ve jsst come back from the pub although in my defence I didn’t drink very much and I’ve read the link that you posted and it is indeed about “the early termination of the powers of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea” dated March 15th 2014. That I won’t dispute, as it’s the title of the thing and is there in black and white. It also says that the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine resolves to terminate the powers of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea early. And also to submit proposals to the Committee of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine on State Building and Local Self-Government regarding the appointment of early elections to the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. That as you say is all correct

However it also says that as I’m reading it and as I say I have a drink, that in making this decision it is taking into account the conclusion of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine Decision No. 2-rp/2014 of March 14, 2014. This is a case on the holding a local referendum in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea regarding the violation by the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, of ​​the Constitution of Ukraine.

So as I read the actual decision (linked above) but mostly having read the end of the document where the Constitutional Court decided:

1. To declare the Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea “On the Conduct of a All-Crimean Referendum” dated March 6, 2014 No. 1702-6/14 as inconsistent with the Constitution of Ukraine (unconstitutional).

2. Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea “On holding a Crimean referendum” dated March 6, 2014 No. 1702-6/14, recognized as unconstitutional, shall cease to be valid from the date of adoption of this Decision by the Constitutional Court of Ukraine.

3. To terminate the activities of the Commission of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea for the conduct of the all-Crimean referendum, territorial and precinct commissions created to conduct this referendum.

4. The Council of Ministers of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea should stop funding referendum activities and ensure the destruction of ballots and campaign materials.

5. The decision of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine is binding on the territory of Ukraine, final and cannot be appealed.

The decision of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine shall be published in the "Bulletin of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine" and in other official publications of Ukraine.

CONSTITUTIONAL COURT OF UKRAINE

So it appears to me that the Ukrainian government were completely correctly following the decision of the constitutional court when they killed off the powers of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea because of the decision to hold an illegal referendum.

So the TLDR version is that if they hadn’t been planning an referendum in Crimea (under Russian rule) then the constitutional court wouldn’t have ruled that the referendum was illegal and the government wouldn’t have had to terminate the powers of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea based on the constitutional court decision.

Now my head is starting to hurt from a combination of booze and thinking hard at this time of night.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

So the TLDR version is that if they hadn’t been planning an referendum in Crimea (under Russian rule) then the constitutional court wouldn’t have ruled that the referendum was illegal and the government wouldn’t have had to terminate the powers of the Supreme Council of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea based on the constitutional court decision.

Almost there. The referendum was conducted under Crimean rule, ie by Crimea's council even though Kiev had removed that council's powers .Then the referendum was careful to follow the UN principles of the right to self-determination. It may also explain why your friend was confused by the lack of a 'status quo' option, because again that was the option 2, which would have restored Crimea to '91 conditions.

So basically if that won, then Kiev would have had to reverse their decision to strip Crimea of their autonomy. That option didn't win, the people voted for independence instead, probably boosted by Kiev's decision to strip Crimea of their autonomy. There was no need for Kiev to do this, the ruling declaring the referendum illegal should have been sufficient. Then it gets interesting. So the UN has declared a right to self-determination. That was pushed by the SNP in their quest for independence. Difference is the UK allowed a referendum, and it failed to pass. Then SNP has said a few times that it wants to hold more referendums until they get the result they want, which would be the Crimean situation.

And then what's the point of the UN declaring a right to self-determination when Ukraine's demonstrated it just doesn't work. The state that a nascent new state wants to secede from can just say 'Nope'. Then there's no real mechanism to go to the UN to exercise that right. Neither Scotland nor Crimea are/were recognised by the UN, so can't ask for a vote by the UN council to recognise the seceding statelet. In fact Ukraine did pretty much the opposite and got a resolution condemning Crimea's independence effort. So the UN kinda demonstrated that the right to self-determination doesn't really exist, and can be easily blocked or vetoed.

Now my head is starting to hurt from a combination of booze and thinking hard at this time of night.

Sometimes that's the best way to try to understand Ukraine's politics. Also something Ukraine's politicians might do given the number of brawls there has been in their Rada. But now we can get back to drones, and 'long range sanctions', and this news-

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/08/28/8050774/

Russian attacks have destroyed around 90% of modern storage facilities for goods in Ukraine.

...Retail logistics are changing due to the constant destruction of warehouse infrastructure. Vysotskyi said the most realistic alternative right now is to supply goods using a "just-in-time" system, although it is more complex and expensive.

Most retailers already operate a 'just in time' system given they don't want to sit on perishable inventory when retailers margins are notoriously thin. But this is Russia's response to Ukraine's decision to hit Wildberries and online retailers. Blowback is a bitch like that sometimes with Russia hitting Ukraine's offline retail logistics, as well as the supermarkets themselves. And this has been brutally effective, eg-

On 20 August, a Russian attack damaged another Fora warehouse in Martusivka, Kyiv Oblast, where fresh produce was stored. The facility had been operating for just one week.

Demonstrating that Russia's intelligence and target selection is pretty effective at degrading or destroying Ukraine's logistics and food supply. The weapon of choice has mostly been the jet powered Geran-4 & Geran-5 drones, which apparently can fly at 600km/h, and one was just reported flying almost 1,000km. Which raises the question about whether this new Ukrainian drone is fast enough to deal with the Russian threat, and if it can be produced in large enough numbers to prevent a very unpleasant winter for Ukraine. This new drone may already be effectively obsolete, or in the way of the drone wars, Russia just develops countermeasures.

(It's also interesting as a practical demonstration of CNI issues, ie what happens if/when there's a serious disruption to food logistics. That may be power failures given a 'black start' condition may take longer than the oft-stated 'time to die' of supermarket logistics. Or it may be as a result of diesel shortages, or deliberate sabotage.. which Russia has been hinting at. So then how to harden CNI & logistics against those types of threat.)

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

I think you’re confusing me with someone else. I also remembered Chechnya this morning and the Russian violent response to their votes for independence.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

I think you’re confusing me with someone else.

Easily done when dealing with anonymous cowards.

I also remembered Chechnya this morning and the Russian violent response to their votes for independence.

I think you misremember. Dzhokhar Dudayev took advantage of the '91 coup in Russia, performed his own coup in Chechnya and declared independence. He didn't bother with a vote. Then Chechnya devolved into terrorism and conflicts between factions and warlords, and lead to this lot-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_International_Peacekeeping_Brigade

and who attempted to invade Dagestan, plus terrorist bombings in Moscow which conspiracy theorists tried to blame on Russia itself. Or theorists questioned the similarities between support for AQ in Afghanistan, or AQ/ISIL in Syria, or just the way 'color revolutions' and 'independence' movements tended to follow the same 'coup in a can' model. Carefully choreographed protests, weapons supplied, mysterious people start shooting and voila, viva la revolution. Happened in Libyia, Syria, Ukraine, Iran. Sometimes the coups worked, sometimes like with Iran, they failed so the instigators just started bombing.

But such is politics. Meanwhile in Ukraine, Russia hit a Firepoint facility in Mila that was building weapons in buildings that weren't designed for it. The resulting secondary detonations caused a lot of casualties because the facility was in a residential neighborhood. Interestingly, although the Bbc initially reported this with a spin of 'Russia attacks civilians', it updated their story. Probably because there were too many videos showing the damage was due to the secondary detonations.. Which had also happened previously when Russia hit another military facility in Vyshneve that was in the middle of a residential neighborhood. Again despite evidence of a lot of secondary detonations, that one was reported as Russia striking civilians.

And in other news, Russia's been using a lot of their new Banderol missiles, and-

https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/meet-russias-dan-t-a-cheap-cruise-missile-moscow-plans-to-mass-produce-in-2027-22035

Another new weapon system that is allegedly cheaper than the Banderol and Russia can produce using domestic components. And it's apparently planning to produce a lot of them, and with a 500km range and 130kg warhead, will be a challenge for drones or Ukraine's air defences to counter. It's morbidly impressive the rate at which new weapon systems and counter measures are being developed, fielded, and obsoleted.

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

So there definitely wasn’t an election for the president and parliament of Chechnya held on 27 October 1991?

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

So there definitely wasn’t an election for the president and parliament of Chechnya held on 27 October 1991?

That came after Dudayev mounted a coup and overthrew Zavgayev. Or are you trying to say that a coup and an election is all you need to ensure legitmacy? So about Crimea then... But at least Crimea was pretty bloodless by comparison.

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

So how many people died in Chechnya, as a result of the coup before the election for the president and parliament of Chechnya held on 27 October 1991?

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

So how many people died in Chechnya, as a result of the coup before the election for the president and parliament of Chechnya held on 27 October 1991?

More than were killed before Crimea's vote and declaration of independence? Possibly fewer than were killed when the Banderites seized power in Ukraine and overthrew their government?

But not sure why you want to rehash ancient history, other than perhaps a demonstration of hypocrisy and the lack of any real 'international rules based order'.. Which seems to be based on might makes right, and whoever the West decides to pick & recognise as winners.. Which in Ukraine's case, ignores the massive political, economic and human costs. The EU sanctioned itself and is paying the price. The EU decided to pour money & weapons into Ukraine to keep the conflict going at an enormous human cost. Merz just announced Germany and Ukraine are united against Russia. Again. Meanwhile, VW is laying off 60,000 staff because Germany's policies are deindustrialising Germay. Which is a problem given Germany was the economic powerhouse behind the EU, and subsidises most of the smaller EU members. France is also in bad shape, but luckily the UK escaped that shitshow, and doesn't have to take on any of the EU's rapidly increasing debt burden

Which in a historical sense is interesting given the way it mirrors the collapse of the Soviet Union almost exactly. The fiscal drain of keeping up with the arms race, along with keeping the client states happy lead to it's collapse, with those client states jumping ship to become dependent on EU handouts instead. And now the EU is cutting social spending on its own arms race, and countries like Germany are wondering why Merz is polling at around 13%, and they're ranting about 'protecting democracy' by trying to ban AfD, because it looks like they're going to win.

But such is politics.

But getting back to the story. Ukraine may have a new wunderwaffe that can counter Geran-2 & 3 drones. Great, except Russia isn't using those much any more and is instead using more jet powered Gernan-4 & 5. Plus it's fielding new, lower cost cruise and ballistic missiles, which these drones probably won't be able to counter. And we can't produce interceptor missiles fast enough to keep up with Ukraine's demands, and of course the US boosted demand by picking a fight with Iran as well. But if you're in the arms business, this is great because you get access to the EU's slush fund to sell as many weapons as you can make. But this is one of those cold equations. Normal practice is to fire 2 interceptors per incoming missile to increase hit probability. We can't produce at a 1:1 rate, so Ukraine's infrastructure and economy is being hammered.

So there's a huge contingent liability problem that our politicians seem to be ignoring.. Perhaps there's a lot of optimism bias, an assumption that Ukraine will somehow defeat Russia, and it can then be asset stripped to turn a profit. But the drone war is only part of the problem. Ukraine's stated they need 30,000 new recruits a month just to hold ground. Ukraine doesn't have those troops. It's already being very generous with pay & benefits to try and attract troops.. Including a $400,000 death benefit.. Which is $4bn per 10,000 KIA. Ukraine can't afford this, and neither can the EU.

But keep the conflict going, keep the bodies dropping because if you're making money out of the conflict, it's great business. Sell a $50k drone. If it doesn't work and a single Ukrainian soldier dies, that $400k liability isn't your problem. Nor is it your problem if a failure to intercept means a refrigerated warehouse is destroyed, and supermarket shelves in Ukraine go empty. War really is quite the racket.

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

For someone who told me to “cite your sources!” It is more than a tiny bit hypocritical to make a statement about a coup being bloody, without being able to back it up, prove it for peer review etc. For completeness my source for the Wildberries tax arrangements was https://meduza.io/en/news/2026/08/26/russia-approves-support-measures-for-businesses-affected-by-wildberries-warehouse-strikes-including-tax-deferrals

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

For someone who told me to “cite your sources!” It is more than a tiny bit hypocritical to make a statement about a coup being bloody, without being able to back it up, prove it for peer review etc.

You are not a peer, and not sure why you insist on re-litigating past conflicts unless it's to try and prove that it's fine to take power by force. But for Chechnya-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzhokhar_Dudayev#Chechen_politics

On 6 September 1991, the militants of the NCChP violently (the Grozny Communist party leader was killed and several other members were wounded) invaded a session of the local Supreme Soviet, effectively dissolving the government of the Chechen-Ingush ASSR. Grozny television station and other key government buildings were also taken over

For Ukraine, there was Parubiy, his 'musicians' and the 'Heavenly Hundred'. Ukraine of course denies they were shot from rooftops.

For completeness my source for the Wildberries tax arrangements was..

.. Meduza, which is hardly a reliable source. Now for completeness, have you seen any of the videos showing the blowback from Elensky's '40 days and nights' attacks on Russian retailers? Now videos show empty shelves in Kiev and Lviv, and if Kiev insists on yeeting drones into Russia, the situation will likely get worse for Ukraine. Not sure anyone's put a price to the 'long distance sanctions' and the reported 90% reduction in Ukraine's retail logistics. Winter isn't looking good for Ukrainians, unless they decide to test the theory that Elensky really is President for life and have another coup.

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

So now you’re talking about Kyiv (and the unfortunate Heavenly Hundred) and not Crimea where the Russian Little Green Men took charge and organised the illegal referendum.

In Crimea Reshat Ametov a Crimean Tartar was participating in a silent ptotest when he was abducted by the Little Green Men and tortured before being killed. Valentina Korneva was trampled in a crowd, Igor Postny died of a heart attack whilst protesting at the parliament building.

Quite happy for Britain to give the Ukrainians anything they need (short of giving them WMD*) to expel the Russian invaders from their lands including Crimea. *despite Russia using them in Great Britain already.

Fine if you don’t like Meduza then how about vatupdate.com

Russia’s Finance Ministry proposed tax relief for Wildberries and affected sellers after warehouse attacks.

Sellers with losses above 5% of annual revenue would get a 12-month deferral on VAT, corporate tax, and other liabilities.

Deferred taxes would then be repaid in equal monthly installments over the following 12 months.

RVB Group would also receive a similar VAT and tax deferral through July 28, 2027, with a one-year installment plan, excluding import VAT.

Tax audits would be suspended through the end of the year.

Also you’ve mentioed my favourite pro Kremlin phrase “Rules based order”. So I’m done with this.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

So now you’re talking about Kyiv (and the unfortunate Heavenly Hundred) and not Crimea

Still not sure what your point is, unless it's some kind of bodycount required to legitimise a coup?

Deferred taxes would then be repaid in equal monthly installments over the following 12 months.

So taxes due are still taxes due, and very little impact on the broader Russian economy. Elensky claimed his 'long range sanctions' focused on Wildberries, because somehow, this would bring the Russian economy to it's knees, and get Russians rising up to overthrow Putin. Except pretty much the opposite happened, and there were more calls for Putin to take the gloves off, and hit Ukraine harder. Which Russia has of course now done, and has been hitting Ukrainian retailers, wholesalers and supermarkets, with more videos showing empty shelves.

How much do you think Elensky's '40 days and nights' misadventure has cost the Ukrainian economy, and Ukrainians? And as winter approaches, who do you think is more vulnerable, Putin, or Elensky? He isn't very popular in Ukraine, and his popularity has been plummeting. But that's why he's not very keen on holding elections.

Also you’ve mentioed my favourite pro Kremlin phrase “Rules based order”. So I’m done with this.

Huh? You're.. not very well informed, are you?

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/11/after-backlash-von-der-leyen-stresses-unwavering-support-for-rules-based-order

After backlash, von der Leyen stresses 'unwavering' support for rules-based order

Although you may be right given the way von der Leyen has been helping Russia by weakening the EU.. Also it's funny how people are so fast to claim 'Russian propaganda' when one of the first things the freedom loving EU & UK did was block access to Russian media sources.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

Funny how this supposedly initialed peace deal has never been seen in public anywhere isn’t it. I mean you would have thought if it existed Putin would have publicly published it for all to see but strangely enough he never has nor anyone in his government.

And you'd accept a document released by Putin as authentic?

Perhaps you can understand why he hasn't bothered.

[JimboSmith]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

And you'd accept a document released by Putin as authentic?

Perhaps you can understand why he hasn't bothered.

Personally I’d assume anything he produces could be laced with WMD like Novichok and Polonium 210 so no I wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole. However the Russian President has repeated his claim about this peace deal being initialed in June of this year.

https://qna.org.qa/en/news/news-details?id=putin-says-russia-ready-for-peace-talks-with-ukraine-based-on-istanbul-agreements&date=23/06/2026

Russia, as has been said many times, is ready for peace negotiations with Ukraine, ready on the basis of the agreements that were reached in Istanbul [in the spring of 2022] and, I would remind you, were initialed at the time by the Ukrainian delegation, which means everything suited them," Putin said.

I mean if you can’t show the alleged important document you are repeatedly claiming exists, (even if it was just to show the initialed page, if the alleged document is top secret) then you’re no better than a crazy world leader with a large nuclear arsenal inventing mysterious paperwork…..oh wait a minute he is a batshit crazy world leader with a Nuclear Arsenal…..

.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

I mean if you can’t show the alleged important document you are repeatedly claiming exists, (even if it was just to show the initialed page, if the alleged document is top secret) then you’re no better than a crazy world leader..

... who demonstrates the latest in Ukrainian stealth truck technology whilst standing live 'outside Zaporizhzhia'? Damn clever those Ukrainians. AI and stealth tech in one video.

But a lot of stuff gets faked. A lot of faked stuff gets denied. Putin did wave the doc at a meeting with some African leaders, and the text of the proposal was published. But as is typical with Internet trolls, people demand evidence that doesn't really prove anything. The claim was a proposal was initialled, and even if that doc was produced, it'd need some heavy forensic analysis to determine if the initials were faked, or not.

But that's all ancient history now. Zelensky et al rant that Putin doesn't want peace because Putin won't agree to capitulate and comply with his (and his puppet masters) demands. Kellog was being a human shield in Odessa a couple of days ago, and dusted off his 10-pint piss plan, complete with buffer zones. How many times does Russia have to reject that plan before he gets the hint? Russia won't meet with Israel's envoys, Kushner and Witkoff for much the same reason. They're not proposing anything serious that Russia hasn't already rejected. So Ratcliffe went to Moscow for a short meeting, probably to try and threaten Russia but apparently didn't get to meet any senior Russians. And why would they when Russia knows the US is hardly neutral and doesn't really have any cards.

Oh, and of course there's Kallas as the EU's chief diplomat, but nobody, not the US, Russia, China will take her meetings..

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: A handful of vicious assholes

The fact that the draft agreement was initialed is neither here nor there. The important point is there was a deal on the table that involved the Ukrainians rejecting accession to NATO in exchange for the Russians backing down. This has been confirmed by the Ukrainians themselves (see above) as well as independent diplomats who were in the room at the time.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett played a large role in those April 2022 negotiations. In an interview*, he also claimed that Russia and Ukraine were willing to make major concessions and end the conflict, until pressure from then UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson convinced Zelensky to back down from such a deal.

* - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qK9tLDeWBzs&t=10774s

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-russia-2669196351/

Zelensky was given the option to stick or twist and he decided to opt for the latter at the behest of the ridiculous clown, Boris Johnson. History will judge whether that was the correct decision.

[Benegesserict Cumbersomberbatch]

A dialogue I'd like to hear

- Hey Alexa

- Yes?

- # BOOM #

[Anonymous Coward]

> During a visit to Kyiv, British Prime Minister Andy Burnham announced that the UK authorized European defence firm MBDA to release classified data on Storm Shadow components, enabling Ukraine to manufacture the Anglo-French Storm cruise missile domestically.

Following the well established British tradition of spending billions developing something and then giving away the valuable IP to a foreign country so that we can later spend more billions buying back the completed weapons from that country rather then building and selling them ourselves. We've done this many times before. Sometimes it's hard to tell whether the people running the country are just incompetent or are deliberately sabotaging our industry.

[Anonymous Coward]

Storm Shadow is obsolete and is being replaced in UK + French service. That's why we're giving them away - cheaper than disposal

I suppose you are also referring to the disastrous WWII operation to give details of the cavity magnetron and jet engine to the Americans when we could simply have kept them and defeated the Nazis and then the Soviet Union ourselves singlehanded

[Anonymous Coward]

Storm Shadow is obsolete and is being replaced in UK + French service. That's why we're giving them away - cheaper than disposal

The Storm Shadow is not obsolete since the replacement hasn't even reached the prototype stage.

We've already supplied between 200-300 Storm Shadow and SCALPs to Ukraine since 2023 and they've proven to be fairly ineffective. The Russian missile defense system is top notch and adapts quickly to whatever new NATO threat happens to emerge.

[Elongated Muskrat]

A burning oil refinery says what?

[Jellied Eel]

A burning oil refinery says what?

You're easily impressed? Meanwhile, another warehouse in Boryspil burns. No idea what was in that warehouse, but Russia's destroyed most of the warehouses in that town. Most of them being next to an airport..

[scot stockwell]

its a kamikaze-anti-kamikaze-drone-drone

[I ain't Spartacus]

Are you sure it's not an anti-kamikaze-drone-kamikaze-drone?