Portabililty Between Models
This article opens the door to a dimension of AI adoption that I haven't really seen discussed yet: portability.
Back in the day, organisations like ANSI (the American National Standards Institute) developed portability standards for technology that covered programming languages, including COBOL, FORTRAN and even SQL. [ And yes, I appreciate that these are older languages, but COBOL and SQL, in particular, remain two of the most widely adopted languages in computing today.
The thing is, we have no way of knowing which of the current AI companies [if, indeed, any of them] will establish the most capable or effective solution. We don't know if the companies will continue in business, or be bought out, or sued out of existence if something goes wrong.
What we do know is that companies that use technology in general - everything from banks to healthcare to engineering - is rushing to experiment with and adopt AI-powered solutions, even if this largely seems driven by FOMO (the Fear Of Missing Out).
But the problems will start to manifest in maybe a year or two, when the AI race starts to solidify around leading players and we start to see major rounds of consolidation, with smaller and less effective players being consumed or simply fading to insignificance. But what of companies that invest in those doomed providers?
The thing about a programming language like COBOL is that it is relatively simply to port it between systems [as long as it sticks to an external standard, like ANSI]. We have no such collaboration happening in the AI space right now. What happens if you're a downstream consumer of i.e. Anthropic as a major part of your business process and then Anthropic is bought or our withers and dies.
If you've experimented with AI at all in a business setting you quickly learn that it is a brutal, Garbage-In/Garbage-Out paradigm and that crafting really good prompts is essential to getting good, efficient results. Once you have effectively hard-coded that in to other software by means of an API, things get more complex still.
I dare say it will come... but it would be interesting to ask companies who are rushing to adopt AI and just ask them what their contingency plans are if the AI provider they are partnering with is toast within the next 12-18 months.
I have a hunch that not many of them will have an answer for that.