Iran all but vanishes from the global internet amid US-Israel strikes

Iran's internet has plunged into a near-total blackout, with traffic down to around 1 percent of normal levels and connectivity described as "close to zero" as authorities curb access amid widening regional conflict. Mobile phones on Iran flag Iran’s internet goes dark amid mass protests, reports of violent government …

[VoiceOfTruth]

Another war for oil

They'll be parachuting the 'crown prince' soon. He will be a good little dictator.

[Bebu sa Ware]

Re: Another war for oil

They'll be parachuting the 'crown prince' soon.

From what I was led to understand from an Iranian friend (an exile) in the 1980s that in Iran the only person that was hated more that the Ayatollah was the Shah.

In the Shah's time SAVAK would have been highly favoured for gold in the torturers' Olympics. After the revolution I don't imagine these monsters were made redundant.

I only hope the rest of world has the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out with Iran unassisted, as the conflict has hallmark of a super hybrid of Iraq² and Afganistan. (Defeat and destitution — I don't mean Iran.)

[VoiceOfTruth]

Re: Another war for oil

>> in the 1980s that in Iran the only person that was hated more that the Ayatollah was the Shah.

That is why it was possible to have a revolution in the first place.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

And a shove or two from other interested parties

[R Soul]

a super hybrid of Iraq² and Afganistan

Don't you mean 911 x 911?

[Irongut]

Re: a super hybrid of Iraq² and Afganistan

NO-ONE KNOWS HOW BIG THAT IS!!!!

[Jedit]

"the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

Bad news on that front: Keith already managed to get the UK involved. Not that we were ever hoping for him or his ilk to have good sense.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

Keith already managed to get the UK involved

Surely Iran managed that? We had stayed out of it, not allowing the US to use UK bases, until Iran attacked our base in Cyprus - at which point Starmer allowed bases to be used to hit missile sites.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

Surely Iran managed that? We had stayed out of it, not allowing the US to use UK bases, until Iran attacked our base in Cyprus

Which conveniently glosses over US assets at those bases. But predictably, the 'Great' and 'Lesser' Satans acting in concert to win friends and influence people in the Middle East. One interesting aspect to Gulf War 3.0 is the way Iran hit US radar sites, including possibly destroying an AN/FPS-132 installation in Qatar. Not even a week into this SMO and it's already proving very expensive.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

Jellied Eel,

"The lesser Satan" was mostly the Soviet Union in Iran-revolutionary-government speak. Israel are the "Little Satan" apparently. Although a quick Google suggests that Iranian government propaganda isn't entirely consistent on this, and that the UK has occasionally been promoted to "Great Satan", but us and the French also sometimes have to languish as "lesser satans" as well.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

..but us and the French also sometimes have to languish as "lesser satans" as well.

Yes, I knew that already and didn't have to GIFY. It generally depends on both period of history, and also faction, ie Sunni Muslims tend to have a different perspective to Shia. And of course this is mostly a sectarian conflict between the Semites, which then gets further complicated given Israel is busily bombing Semites, but critcisms of that get shouted down as being 'anti-Semitic'. And then Iranians are Persians, not Arabs, and some Sunni Muslims regard Shi'ites as apostates that must be eliminated.

So we go stir the pot, and rather offend 250m+ Shia Muslims, including the ones who've been attacking US embassies in Pakistan, and possibly prompted a terrorist attack in Texas. But such is politics. Raytheon stock is up, so it's all good. Right?

[VoiceOfTruth]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

>> Iranians are Persians

An oversimplification. Persia, named from the Pars (or Fars) province is analogous to Kent in England. There are several other provinces where the populations are not Persian.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

There are several other provinces where the populations are not Persian.

Yup. Like I said, it gets complicated.

So a lot of Iranians were quite happy with their government and don't want to go the way of Syria or Iraq, especially if that means having a radical Sunni regime imposed on them & women losing a lot of their rights.. Which is unlikely given the demographics. But despite perceived sins, Iran had some oddities, like free gender reassignment instead of transexuals being taught to fly off the nearest high rise. Or just free health care, unlike the US system of bankrupting people unfortunate enough to get sick. Or there are pretty large Jewish & Christian communities in Iran, who are now in danger, along with Jewish people world wide because fanatics often can't tell the difference betwee religion, and the actions of a state.

[martinusher]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

The UK has been a US proxy since the 1940s.

I think that most people don't understand the true notion of what's called the "Special Relationship". The UK doesn't do anything unless we OK It. (Sorry.)

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

The UK has been a US proxy since the 1940s

I don't think it was a coincidence that Orwell's "Nineteen Eighty-Four" released in 1948 had the UK (or British Isles) effectively reduced to being "Airstrip One" within a geographic bloc/superstate dominated by the Americas.

This, assumng it's a correct interpretation of the book, makes it more obvious.

[R Soul]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

And that's what makes the relationship special.

[bombastic bob]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

The UK has been a US proxy since the 1940s

as a left-pondian I have to COMPLETELY disagree with that, and acknowledge that it's insulting to the UK.

The problem is UK''s current PM (In My Bombastic Opinion), NOT the citizens nor the nation itself. But as Iran busily attacks everyone else in the world as if the world is against them, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and nobody is on their side. Even China is staying out of this one. I really think UK's PM Starmer will come on board soon. We'll be ok.

Funny thing the Iranian ships (now all turned into scrap metal and sent to Davy Jones' locker) incorporated a LOT of CCP China tech. So in other words, like Ukraine against Russia, it's a test of US and NATO tech against CCP China's tech, and they're not doing so well.

That torpedo shot out in the Indian Ocean was priceless! Especially because I spent nearly 4 years on an attack sub, and I was more than familiar with capabilities of Mk-48 torpedoes (existed since the 1970's), and they now have the designation 'ADCAP' for advanced capabilities... meaning the 1980's torpedoes did well, but THESE are even BETTER!

Icon 'cause that's really what is at stake and we WILL make sure Iran NEVER has one!

Starmer will soon get on board, and I think it will be obvious why: We do NOT want a repeat of Gulf War II. We're gonna destroy all of their war tech, preventing them from threatening ANYONE for ANY reason, and pave the way for Iranian people to make their OWN revolution happen. The "nation building" crap that kept us in Afghanistan for 20 years is UNACCEPTABLE! Iranians will have to build their OWN nation after we completely destroy the regime and the army that OPPRESSES them.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

The "nation building" crap that kept us in Afghanistan for 20 years is UNACCEPTABLE! Iranians will have to build their OWN nation after we completely destroy the regime and the army that OPPRESSES them.

Ah, the My Lai defence. We had to destroy the country to save it. But Israel and the US are the agressors and oppressors, so it's hardly suprising a lot of Iranians don't like them. Especially when Iran's been told that if they try to elect a new Ayatollah, he'll just be murdered. But such is geopolitics and high-explosive election interference. JCPOA was prretty much working, but along came Trump, scrapped it and put the sanctions back on. That's rather opressive.

But as for the plan, I posted this link in another topic-

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/06_iran_strategy.pdf

written in 2016. The US regime change plan has been a long time in the making.

[VoiceOfTruth]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

Britain is owned by the USA from top to bottom. Permanent CIA operatives are deeply imbedded everywhere.

[EarthDog]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

The UK has been America’s b1tch for a while now. Trump says “bend over” Keith asks “how far sir?”

[LucreLout]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

Keith already managed to get the UK involved

As much as Starmer is an absolute cretin who has been a disaster in every job he's ever had, and does always chicken out (SACO), it's hard to blame him for this one.

There's no way any war this close to us doesn't end up using our bases at some stage, and Iran have mindlessly lashed out at everything in reach, including us and our allies (Israel and the USA). There's nothing else he could do but allow our bases to be used.

[VoiceOfTruth]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

Israel is not our ally. A quick note: during the Falklands war, Israel continued to supply weapons including missiles to Argentina.

[LucreLout]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

Lol. That's just factually incorrect. They're the only democracy in the middle east and our only strategic ally in the region.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

What's factually incorrect?

VoiceOfTruth is wrong that Israel & UK are not allies because they are, though not formally so.

But VoiceOfTruth is right that Israel continued to supply weapons to Argentina throughout the Falklands War.

[Blazde]

Re: "the good sense to leave the US & Israel to slog it out"

There's no way any war this close to us doesn't end up using our bases at some stage, and Iran have mindlessly lashed out at everything in reach, including us and our allies (Israel and the USA). There's nothing else he could do but allow our bases to be used.

I heard that a British-made military radio was slightly damaged after being dropped to the ground by an IDF soldier in Tel Aviv, during an air-raid warning triggered by an incoming Iranian ballistic missile, so I'm 100% with Keir. The gloves must come off!

(Err, the defensive gloves that is)

[JimboSmith]

Re: Another war for oil

My Iranian friend is hoping that this will result in regime change and more freedom for the citizens of Iran, including the family they have there.

[You aint sin me, roit]

Re: Another war for oil

That was the hope for Iraq post-Hussein, Libya post-Ghaddafi, Syria post-Assad, Afghanistan post-Taliban, maybe even Gaza post-Hamas.

I too hope that regime change will result in a better life for the citizens of Iran, but unfortunately the indicators are not good. Particularly as, once again, the Americans don't seem to have a plan for what to do when their missiles have all been fired.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

> Americans don't seem to have a plan for what to do when their missiles have all been fired

'Not His Job': Lindsey Graham Offers Stunning Cover Of Trump's 'Plan' For Iran

Kristin Welker> “Is hope the plan for the future of Iran?”

Welker> “But is there a plan to make sure that happens, senator? Is there a plan, does the president have a plan to guarantee that that happens?”

Lindsey Graham> “No! It’s not his job or my job to do this! How many times do I have to tell you?”

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

Pete Hegseth said of the current attacks/war/whatever this is meant to be:-

“No stupid rules of engagement, no nation-building quagmire, no democracy-building exercise, no politically-correct wars. We fight to win,”

My first response to that bullish bullshit was, "win what?"

What are they supposedly trying to achieve and then claim credit for here?

Are they under the impression that the "endless" Iraq war they're so contemptious of was such a disaster because of the attempted nation building and not because they went in there with no real plan in the first place beyond wanting rid of Saddam and with typical American arrogance expecting they could make it work regardless?

Are they under the impression they'll can go in, kick over the ant's nest then the Iranian people will overthrow their oppressors with no opposition in what- in reality- would likely be a civil war, and a newly-installed pro-US Shah (just like the last one) will be accepted by all and rule over the stable country they need in order to exploit its oil... all with no further work on their part except sporadic bombing campaigns?

Because when you take the would-be-nation-building bit out of the middle, that sounds like they're simply going to jump straight to the bit where the country goes to shit and something even nastier and more chaotic exploits the resulting chaos the way IS did in Iraq. (If if weren't for the religious and cultural differences otherwise making this less likely in Iran, I'd have assumed it most likely that IS themselves would be the ones doing so to make an unwanted comeback).

Then again, maybe kicking over the ant's nest to topple one of Israel's largest rivals in the region *is* all they ultimately care about. Military supremacy (with the help of US backing) doesn't translate as easily into direct influence and control over the region, but that's not really the point- Netanyahu staying in power via a series of endless wars is.

But back to Hegseth, who mocked

"traditional allies who wring their hands and clutch their pearls hemming and hawing about the use of force"

In the face of arrogant, contemptious pricks like this, Keir Starmer is ineffectually telling off his supposed allies in the US government... while at the same time pandering to them by letting them use UK military bases for purely "defensive" purposes, i.e. to mitigate the consequences of their attack.

Pull the other one, you craven, pandering fence-sitter- do you seriously think the Americans are going to respect you for *that* when Trump- the epitome of a man without honour- showed so little recognition of or respect for British casualties who fought alongside them in Afghanistan?

Starmer is someone who thinks he can have it both ways and ends up- deservedly- hated by both sides.

[Blazde]

Re: Another war for oil

the way IS did in Iraq. (If if weren't for the religious and cultural differences otherwise making this less likely in Iran, I'd have assumed it most likely that IS themselves would be the ones doing so to make an unwanted comeback).

For me, the more realistic outcome the US could heavily regret is that China now sees even more opportunity in Iran. They're desperate, well within China's expanding sphere of influence, big oil suppliers to China, no longer a nuclear state risk, and capable of relative stability probably more so than current most-valued buddies, Pakistan, and definitely than Afghanistan which Trump himself has already fretted about effectively losing to China's influence without actually mentioning that's his own fault.

The first signs of this are that while virtually all Western shipping is snarled up in the Strait of Hormuz, China-bound tankers appear to be seeing much less risk navigating it.

[David Hicklin]

Re: Another war for oil

> Starmer is someone who thinks he can have it both ways and ends up- deservedly- hated by both sides

I agree and disagree with your points, personally I think Starmer is taking the best path available right now, 100% right not to be taking part in the attacks (shock - lessons of Iraq were learned), use of bases to hit sites where missiles are coming from against ours ..that is a bit more debatable but they did fire at our bases first to I will let him have limited use for that one. Not defending ourselves won't stop the incoming missiles and drones.

Notable that Tories/Reform would be bombing away merrily whist the Greens/Lib Dems would have left the bases closed - so He can't win either way. As often said, both extreme viewpoints can't be right but they can *both* be wrong.

Worst issue I have with the whole affair is that whilst it is far too easy to go down the start ramp in these wars, I can't see an exit ramp for USA, no way a regime change is going to happen without boots on the ground and that would be inviting another Iraq. And wtf are Congress doing ? They really need to get their act together and impeach Trump or he really is going to be a Dictator - this is their last chance.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

Worst issue I have with the whole affair is that whilst it is far too easy to go down the start ramp in these wars, I can't see an exit ramp for USA, no way a regime change is going to happen without boots on the ground and that would be inviting another Iraq.

It's going much the same way as the '12 day war' did, except this time Iran's expanded their retaliation and started earlier. Trump could just say they've helped Israel with their mission and walk away, but I doubt Trump's ego would permit that. Neither would Bibi. But Iran's said no negotiations. Now Trump's said (per Bbc Live)-

"Their air defense, Air Force, Navy, and Leadership is gone," he writes, seemingly about Iranian officials, alongside a link to an opinion piece in the Washington Post about "the birth of the Trump Doctrine".

"They want to talk. I said 'Too Late!'"

Never try negotiating with narcissistic sociopaths I guess (which includes Bibi). But it also demonstrates the well-known problems with decapitation strikes, and why most sane countries don't do them. If you murder the leadership and keep bombing their replacements, who's left to negotiate with? So I guess the bombings will continue until morale improves. Or one or other side runs out of missiles and drones. Or perhaps other world leaders can talk some sense into Trump.

They really need to get their act together and impeach Trump or he really is going to be a Dictator - this is their last chance.

I don't think they could impeach Trump unless a lot of Republicans cross the house. Otherwise there wouldn't be enough votes. Plus on what basis? Being a f'ng idiot or acting in the interests of Israel probably isn't enough, unless US Senators & Congresscritters try for a treason charge. If not, there's the fairly wooly "high crimes and misdemeanors" charge that might be easier to stick, so presenting enough evidence of war crimes.

[alain williams]

Re: Another war for oil

If you murder the leadership and keep bombing their replacements, who's left to negotiate with?

This is Israel's playbook. They want all of the surrounding countries to be weak & unable to organise - their eventual aim is Greater Israel -- to take over huge amounts of the middle East, this colonialist goal is guaranteed to keep the area at war for many years to come. While they do this invaded countries, naturally, fight back - acts which Israel and a lot of the Western press calls "terrorism".

If Israel were to live within the borders created by the 1947 UN partition plan the world would be a much more peaceful place.

[bombastic bob]

Re: Another war for oil

Americans don't seem to have a plan for what to do when their missiles have all been fired.

I expect this is NOT true. Please do not interpret Trump's obvious evasion of "announcing/revealing our plans" as "not having one". Trump probably has a plan every time he takes a crap. And he NEVER tells anyone what the plan is unless they need to know. My Bombastic Opinion, anyway.

If you want to know how Trump thinks, read Sun Tzu's "Art of War".

[You aint sin me, roit]

Sun Tzu?

"The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting" that Sun Tzu?

Trump probably has a medical plan for every time he takes a crap, but his medics will have put that in place.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

The arrogant "little prince who thought he could" will soon be impeached, and his kingdom's bruises will take decades to heal.

As for his handler, who knows if he'll ever be allowed to re-enter his own country once the dust settles (or if his own country will even still exist).

[Empire of the Pussycat]

Re: Another war for oil

Yep.

Yet another country where the west interfered to gain control over oil, including overthrowing the closest thing to democratic rule Iran ever had (Mosaddegh).

The current Iranian regime is loathsome, the previous 'pro-western' one was no better - the Shah's secret police organization, SAVAK, was notorious for torture and general atrocity, it was established and trained with significant US CIA involvement as well as Israel's Mossad chipping in with how to torture people and eliminate opponents.

This repression led to the 1979 revolution and helps explain why they hated the USA and Israel so much, both countries gleefully enabled the Shah's brutal regime.

No one has clean hands, certainly not the US, Israel, UK, Russia etc.

As always, the ones who suffer are the poor sods who just wanted to live a decent life in freedom.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

The current Iranian regime is loathsome, the previous 'pro-western' one was no better - the Shah's secret police organization, SAVAK, was notorious for torture and general atrocity, it was established and trained with significant US CIA involvement as well as Israel's Mossad chipping in with how to torture people and eliminate opponents.

Compared to Pahlavi's reign of terror, the current regime is (or was) fairly moderate. Which is one of the risks, ie decapitation strikes might just mean the next regime is even worse. The Iranian expat (or exile) communtity is strange given there were two large waves. Those that fled SAVAK, then those that fled following the revolution. If the idea is a triumphat return of Reza and reinstallation on the Peacock Throne.. I think that very optimistic and he'd survive less than a week.

Otherwise it's yet another clusterfunk that doesn't seem to be going as planned. Over the weekend, I've been chatting with people who think boots on the ground will be needed to prevent civil war & collapse.. But then how to get those boots there and sustain them. The logistics for any kind of opposed landing, or land invasion would likely get very bloody.

[abend0c4]

Re: Another war for oil

Arguably, it's merely the latest chapter of a war that's been going on since oil was discovered.

[Like a badger]

Re: Another war for oil

Never mind since oil was discovered. They've been fighting in that part of the world since creatures walked on two legs. The Sumerians were invaded by the Akkadians, they were invaded by the Gutians, then the Assyrians came along, then the neo-Babylonians, then the Medians, then the Achaemedians, then the Macedonians, etc etc etc.

I presume it's the heat makes them want to fight everybody all the time.

[scarletherring]

Re: Another war for oil

What an ignorant comment. It's true, but the only reason we in "the west" weren't equally bellicose is that, at that time, it was basically an unlivable swamp. It isn't that "those people" are any more bloodthirsty than anyone else. It's that they had something we recognize as civilization many many centuries before we did.

And in the last century plus -- absolutely is was oil.

[Blazde]

Re: Another war for oil

I've always thought the 'for oil' narrative was pretty lazy, and still do, but Bush's 2002 'Axis Of Evil' scorecard is looking a bit sus. at this point for those of us trying to argue it's more complicated than that:

Iraq WMD: Turns out, no. Oil output: Massive. US regime-change attempt: Yes

Iran WMD: They wish. Oil output: Massive. US regime-change attempt: Yes

N.Korea WMD: Nukes! Oil output: Zero. US regime-change attempt: No

(Libya: No. Yes. Yes. Venezula: No. Yes. Yes. Canada: No, Yes. Maybe...)

[David Hicklin]

Re: Another war for oil

> N.Korea WMD: Nukes! Oil output: Zero. US regime-change attempt: No

N. Korea: US also has China to contend with as N.Korea (will just after the war at least) presented a buffer zone between Communism and Capitalism, and it was the Chinese Army that pushed the allied forces back to where we ended up at the DMZ.

I do wonder however how far China is prepared to let N. Korea go as I doubt they want a nuclear conflict right on their border. N Korea is highly dependant on a friendly China.

[Blazde]

Re: Another war for oil

By my understanding they're pretty concerned about any conflict in N.Korea, among other things because of the likely severe refugee crisis it would create in north east China. They have some levers to keep the Kims in check but it clearly wasn't enough to stop them getting the bomb.

(Anyway, yes. It's way more complicated than oil. The current attack taking place has much more to do with Israeli rather than US foreign policy, and we can't really say oil is the primary factor there)

[David Hicklin]

Re: Another war for oil

> Compared to Pahlavi's reign of terror, the current regime is (or was) fairly moderate

The saga goes back much further than that, the middle east has been fought over since before the Romans.

[bombastic bob]

Re: Another war for oil

Middle East wars are as old as Egypt, maybe older. The earliest Bible history reference would probably be around 1500 BC (Exodus being 1440-1400 BC), even earlier if you count Sodom and Gomorrah and other Abrahamic wars (around 2000BC as reported by Grok). Not sure if the Sumerians have anything earlier. Grok reports the lowest layers in Jericho when they first built major fortifications at around 2000BC. Earlier fortifications date to around 8000 BC. Grok reports skeletal evidence of projectile injuries dating to around 11,000–12,000 BC.

[Korev]

Re: Another war for oil

> They'll be parachuting the 'crown prince' soon. He will be a good little dictator.

Isn't he just "Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor" these days?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

So he'll be free to become Iran's new shah, won't he?

[bombastic bob]

Re: Another war for oil

Iran does not need another Shah. They need some kind of republic, whether a pure one or a constitutional monarchy or some hybrid. The Shah's son would be viewed as an opportunistic usurper of power if he did not immediately abdicate leadership once elections are held, and thereby turn over power completely. If he did this he MIGHT unite them. Otherwise letting him try to lead might make things WORSE, MORE divided than if he stayed out of it.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

Given the widespread distribution of attacks over the weekend by Iran, which can only reasonably be described as mindlessly lashing out at everything in reach, is that really a regime you'd be happy to see achieve nuclear capability? Really?

Negotiation totally failed. They've had decades to come tot he table, and were not many months or years from a nuke. This had to be done, and done now. Its genuinely astounding that you don't seem to see that.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

Negotiation totally failed. They've had decades to come tot he table, and were not many months or years from a nuke. This had to be done, and done now. Its genuinely astounding that you don't seem to see that.

They've been only months away from nukes for years now. Bibi constantly showed up with PR stunts demonstrating they're almost there.. But this has shown diplomatic efforts were mostly a ploy, and the unprovoked, full-scale miltary invasion was inevitable. Which also means that US-lead 'peace' efforts for Russia-Ukraine are going to go nowhere, because the US has demonstrated it can't be trusted. And the Ayatollah we've just murdered had issued a fatwah against nuclear weapon development. So he may have been lying, but the replacement might figure that nuclear weapons might have prevented this SMO.. Which has always been the problem, a regional power imbalance and no mini-MAD to stop Israel & Iran killing each other.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

You're not going to come here and try to pretend Iran wasn't developing nuclear weapons, are you? That would be really quite incredible given its satellite tracked activity at its nuclear mountain base.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

You're not going to come here and try to pretend Iran wasn't developing nuclear weapons, are you? That would be really quite incredible given its satellite tracked activity at its nuclear mountain base.

So in June last year, Trump & Bibi bombed it bigly. Iran's nooklear sites were totally and utterly OBLITERATED! ObLiTeRaTeD!! Thank you for your attention to this matter-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_United_States_strikes_on_Iranian_nuclear_sites#Damage

Trump gave a short televised address at 10 p.m. EDT on June 21, in which he said, "Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated".

See? Obliterated! Or the Pentagon-

The initial assessment was rejected by Trump administration officials; Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and CIA director John Ratcliffe both said "new intelligence" revealed that the Natanz, Fordow and Esfahan sites were severely damaged and would require years to rebuild

So let me see.. June 2025 to February 2026 is..err.. years! Right? Alternatively, the US was lying. Sure, there were some satellite images showing earth moving equipment which were trial balloons to justify assassinating a foreign head of state. And help keep one out of jail. Surely Bibi's trial will be halted now?

Or, because Operation Midnight Hummer was well telegraphed, Iran used the advance notice to simply move ~100kg of 60%+ enriched Uranium away from the 'obliterated' facilities and hid that somewhere else in the mountains. Iran isn't exactly short of those.. So shades of GW2's phantom WMD hunting, except this time, the WMD is potentially real. Iran might not be able to make a nuclear device, but it has enough to make a dirty bomb.. Which it may now have incentives to use against Tel Aviv, or Jerusalem.

Quite the gamble.

[Anonymous Coward]

MAGAt brain?

What's interesting is that you'll frequently come out with gloatingly Trumpist content... which might give some the impression you were just another MAGA supporter.

Yet it happens quite often on occasions like this that you'll play the anti-US card when it suits you. You don't actually come out and blame Trump and his regime- it's the "US" as a generic entity- but they're the ones in power when this is going down.

No doubt you'd smugly respond that this shows that you're a free thinker rather than a gullibly uncritical swallower of pro-US/Western propaganda.

And yet, the other defining characteristic of your endless spew here is a *rigidly* uncritical endorsement of the Russian position and their talking points in general. (*) Which frequently *do* include criticism of the West and the US... because, after all, their support of Trump is just a means to exploit his divisiveness (and whatever they've got on him) and they'll play both sides if it suits them.

What I'm saying is that even your apparent MAGAtism is ultimately a function of- and subservient to- your usefully idiotic swallowing/regurgitation of Russian propaganda.

(*) Again, if you disagree feel free to point out *any* one of your countless posts where you disagree in a meaningfully critical way with them.

[alain williams]

Re: Another war for oil

is that really a regime you'd be happy to see achieve nuclear capability?

No I do not, but it did agree to IAEA monitoring in 2015 until Trump blew that up in 2018.

I am far more worried Israel's nukes that it does not admit to and does not allow IAEA inspections.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

Why on Earth would you be worried about Israel having nukes?

Everyone knows they have nukes. They have been provoked to the extreme by Gaza, and still did not nuke them, in fact they went extensively out of their way to reduce and minimise civilian casualties in Gaza. Two big bombs would have wiped out about 80 to 90% of Gaza's population at one stage, quite without using nukes. Israel isn't the problem.

The problem is the last 8 years of ambitious advancement of Iran's nuclear capability. As we've seen the last few days, they're completely unsuited to nuclear weapons, or half he middle east would be gone this week.

[VoiceOfTruth]

Re: Another war for oil

>> They have been provoked to the extreme by Gaza

Er? Committing genocide...

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

Genocide? In Gaza? Lol, no.

If Israel wanted to kill Gazans there would be millions dead. They're actively trying to avoid it more than any military in history.

You've clearly absolutely no idea what genocide actually means. Again, I ask not to insult you but to understand, but are you still somewhere in the school system? Only, I'm wondering if you're just too young to know what a real genocide is.

The NHS death toll isn't all that far behind the IDF, so they can't be trying all that hard.

[Blazde]

Re: Another war for oil

Comparing the NHS to the IDF? One of the purest examples of Poe's law, or it's inverse. I'm truly lost.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

So Israel is just incompetent then? You really are defending bombing civilians for more than a year?

You really are a sorry example of a human.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

So Israel is just incompetent then?

Careful, careful to not kill civilians.

You really are defending bombing civilians for more than a year?

They've been bombing Hamas. Can you have a guess at why? Or do Jewish kids not count?

You really are a sorry example of a human

Right back at ya champ. I don't know how you people sleep at night.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

Careful, careful to not kill civilians.

By dropping 2,000lb bombs on apartment buildings in residential neighborhoods..

They've been bombing Hamas. Can you have a guess at why?

Israel needs liebensraum and Israel's envoys and developers like Witkoff can make billions building luxury apartments where Gaza used to be. But Israel bombs 'Hamas', 'Hezbollah', Syria and now of course Iran.

Or do Jewish kids not count?

Probably. The ones in the school in Iran can't any more. But such is politics and the dangers of religious fanatics like Bibi and ignoranuses like Witkoff and Kuchner.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

They have been provoked to the extreme by Gaza, and still did not nuke them, in fact they went extensively out of their way to reduce and minimise civilian casualties in Gaza. Two big bombs would have wiped out about 80 to 90% of Gaza's population at one stage, quite without using nukes. Israel isn't the problem.

Err.. 70,000+ dead in Gaza, large parts of it razed to the ground. It's done nothing to minimise civilian casualties, and everything to eliminate Gaza's population. And no, it couldn't have nuked Gaza because a) that would turn Israel into a real pariah, and b) contaminate the land and depress future real-estate prices for the luxury condos Trump, Witkoff, Kuchner and other Israeli developers want to build there.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

70,000+ dead in Gaza

Yeah, no. All we know about the numbers is that hamas lie and massively inflate them. Also apparently no terrorists have died, if you believe hamas.

Remember the hospital bombing where they claimed 500 died until it was shown to be their rocket, where miraculously, the number dropped to 50. That's a big miscalculation somewhere.

It's done nothing to minimise civilian casualties

Lol. Aside from leaflet drops, supplying aid, safety zones, evacuation corridors, and withholding their biggest weapons from use. Aside from more than any other military in history you mean? Facts after man, start using some.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

For goodness sake Jellied Eel get a grip! You're parroting propaganda.

[Empire of the Pussycat]

Re: Another war for oil

"Provoked", seriously?

Decades of Israeli invasion, apartheid, oppression, murder, theft, torture, starvation, indiscriminate slaughter etc., now that's provocation.

Israel is the problem, it consistently refuses to stick to the internationally recognised borders and does all it can to prevent the Palestinians establishing a viable government in their own land, with the clear goal of killing/evicting everyone in Gaza and the West Bank, and steal all their land for Israel.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

"Provoked", seriously?

You'd have to be dangerously antisemitic to not consider October 7th as provocation.

Palestine was a very brief British invention that ended more decades back than ever it existed for. Your obsession with it is illogical. I mean, are you campaigning this hard for Yugoslavia? Czechoslovakia maybe? If not, why not?

The land was never "Palestinian" except when Britain made it so.

The Jews are a very distinctive ethnic group, tribe if you like. If their land is not Jerusalem the where is it you think they come from?

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

The Jews are a very distinctive ethnic group, tribe if you like. If their land is not Jerusalem the where is it you think they come from?

Poland and Lithuania? Or see also the differences between Sephardic & Ashkenazi, or the way Jews from sub-Saharan Africa have been discriminated against due to skin color in Israel. But Jewish genetic studies are rather fascinating, although also rather controversial given claims of four maternal ancestors but the majority of Ashkenazi genetics being European rather than Semitic. But also the general problem of 'G-D said we could have it!' has never been a good claim to property rights, especially when not backed by a bill of sale.

Or there are competing claims-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natufian_culture#Modern_groups_with_Natufian_ancestry

In their 2017 paper, Ranajit Das, Paul Wexler, Mehdi Pirooznia and Eran Elhaik analyzed the Lazaridis et al. (2016) study concluding that the Natufians, together with one Neolithic Levantine sample, clustered in the proximity to modern Palestinians and Bedouins, and also "marginally overlapped" with Yemenite Jews

Although modern Israelis are busily using high explosives to erase those claims.. And of course endangering all the Jews worldwide who just want to exist and worship in peace.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

You'd have to be dangerously antisemitic to not consider October 7th as provocation.

Criticising Israeli policy and action isn't anti-semitic. Neither is criticising that lying crook and mass murderer Netanyahu.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

The problem with posts like yours, is that under the disgusting mask of antizionism always, always, lies the disgusting face of antisemitism. It's the same people with the same hate. Always.

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

The problem with posts like yours, is that under the disgusting mask of antizionism always, always, lies the disgusting face of antisemitism. It's the same people with the same hate. Always.

Or the same people with the same hate for non-Jews use anti-semitism as a dog whistle to prevent any criticism of Israel. Which can include Jewish people who don't want their religion being used to justify the actions of the 'Jewish State'. Within Israel, people are criticising Bibi's bombing of Gaza, Lebanon and now Iran. The Knesset has both moderates, and Bibi's neocons, some of whom are very far-right and think Israel has the divine right to wipe Gaza off the map, along with the West Bank, Lebanon and helping themselves to large chunks of Syria. But then there's oil & gas in the waters off Gaza, and probably under the Golan Heights.

Or there's the need for living room. Or Israel's had a pretty rapid shift from an agrarian economy to a high-tech one, which presents some ancient and modern challenges, along with population growth in general. One of those challenges is access to water, for agriculture, industry or just to support the population. Israel's done some neat things with plant genetics to develop salt-tolerant crops, but it's also stolen land in defiance of UN treaties to get water access. And it has datacentres & industry that demands water, which means it's also very dependent on a few desalination plants that are vulnerable to attack. It's also very dependent on imported energy, which is also vulnerable.

And Bibi & Trump have now created an existential crisis for both Iran, and Israel. The US has some convoluted justification for declaring a not-war or SMO against Iran, ie Israel was going to pre-emptively attack Iran and try for regime change, so the US did the pre-emptive self-defence thing to defend Israel against the inevitable retaliation, which somehow makes this conflict legal. Or now they're bombing police stations, illegal, because those are war crimes. Not that that matters, because neither the US nor Israel recognise the authority of the ICC, and might makes right, right?

But if they somehow 'win', Trump and Bibi will get their place in history, just as they will if they lose. And I think a loss is inevitable because it's following the same regime change playbook, which relies on useful idiots, or 'moderate terrorists' to lead the coup. So in this case, probably this lot-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Mojahedin_Organization_of_Iran#Relationship_during_Trump_presidency

In 2017, the year before John Bolton became President Trump's National Security Adviser, Bolton addressed members of the MEK and said that they would celebrate in Tehran before 2019. By 2018, operatives of the MEK were believed to be still conducting covert operations inside Iran to overthrow Iran's government.

MEK had been a proscribed terrorist organisation, but that designation was lfited because you need 'moderate terrorists' to run the 'Arab Spring' coup-in-a-can playbook.. Which Iran is well aware of, has planned for and is why decapitation probably won't work. They've martyred Khamenei, which may have been intentional because he was old, ill and didn't appear to make any attempt to hide. Iranians are rather angry about this. Iran also implemented their 'Mosaic' plan, so less reliant on any chain of command to conduct operatons against Israel, US assets and interests, or suppress any internal dissent or coup attempts.

So I think it's shaping up to be a repeat of the Kurdish uprising in Iraq. Promised support, then support withdrawn and the Kurds left to get massacred. So per Bbc-

In a statement on Telegram, the IDF says "numerous munitions" were dropped on the Presidential Office and the Supreme National Security Council.

It adds that a military training institution and "additional key regime infrastructure" were also hit.

Woo. Yey. Empty buildings blown up because the normal inhabitants dispersed days ago.. Or as Starmer put it-

Sir Keir Starmer has told MPs that the government "does not believe in regime change from the skies"

Not often I find myself agreeing with Starmer, but he's right, and it doesn't work. But a lot of people are going to get killed testing this hypothesis, and Trump is probably going to get hammered in the US mid-terms.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

Or the same people with the same hate for non-Jews use anti-semitism as a dog whistle to prevent any criticism of Israel

Quack quack oops. I'm neither Israeli nor am I Jewish.

[Casca]

Re: Another war for oil

Its you who choose to slant it that way to mark anyone as antisemitist.

Never can anyone criticize Israel for anything according to you and your ilk.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

Its you who choose to slant it that way to mark anyone as antisemitist.

If it walks like a duck....

The real question for folks of your ilk, is why you despise being called out for your antisemitism, instead of just learning not to be antisemitic in the first place. It might help, no?

[Jellied Eel]

Re: Another war for oil

It might help, no?

It might help if you put down your dogwhistle and learned the difference between anti-semitism and anti-zionism. Or just ask yourself why it is verbotten to criticise the actions of the Israeli state, esspecially when it's so murderous and ignores the rules of international law.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

the difference between anti-semitism and anti-

I've already explained, in practice there isn't any difference. Same people, same hate. You know this already though, don't you?

[R Soul]

Re: Another war for oil

Netanyahu doesn't get a free pass for his (war) crimes because he's Jewish. They're still crimes - and some of them are crimes against humanity.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Another war for oil

@Empire of the Pussycat

"If a lie is repeated often enough, it becomes the truth" seems to be your aim.

[Anonymous Coward]

Why on Earth would you be worried about Israel having nukes?

The same way I worry about every country with nukes that's controlled by a megalomaniac crook who'll do anything to stay in power.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: they went extensively out of their way to reduce and minimise civilian casualties in Gaza

"Run this way so we can bomb that school a Hamas errand boy is hiding in"

"Run that way so we can bomb that hospital Hamas is sending noncombatants to"

... yeah. I'll grant they did not *literally* issue movement orders like that, but they may as well have given the results.

Israel is supposed to be the "good guys" in that conflict, but they sure didn't seem to want to spend much boots-on-the-ground effort in precise targeting and minimizing collateral damage. Up to and including bombing sites known to be likely to contain *their own civilians held hostage* from Hamas' kickoff to this latest round of pointless lead-flinging.

[VoiceOfTruth]

Re: Another war for oil

>> Negotiation totally failed.

They had an agreement. Trump terminated it.

The same as Trump terminated the trade agreement with Canada.

An agreement with the USA is not worth anything.

>> were not many months or years from a nuke

Not true.

[LucreLout]

Re: Another war for oil

Yeah, sadly it's totally true.

You again have no basis in fact for your post. It's just school playground rhetoric.

[Casca]

Re: Another war for oil

And you do have a basis for your post? Sure...

[Yorick Hunt]

Internet activity...

Let's see...

My country's being bombed, I have no idea if I'll live to see tomorrow - should I sit down at my computer to watch porn on the 'net, or do something else?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Internet activity...

Surely that's a no-brainer?

[LogicGate]

My country's being bombed, I have no idea if I'll live to see tomorrow, I'd better get online and..

-find out where my family and loved ones are, so that we can organize somewhere safe for all of us to stay

-find out where food, water and medical aid is still available

-communicate with likeminded in order to organize the owerthrow of the regine

-post videos that show what is really happening, rather than sanitized propaganda

-take pictures of myself in speedos on the beach with an easily georeferenced S400 battery in the background

-keep updated on what the Kardashians have been up to lately

[LogicGate]

By the way,

If the US or Israel were serious about a popular uprising, then they should flood the airspace over Iran with drones that create a free flying cellular network.

The question is whether the Iranians could easily jam such a network, and whether anti radiation missiles could cost effectively take out said jammers

[Jellied Eel]

If the US or Israel were serious about a popular uprising, then they should flood the airspace over Iran with drones that create a free flying cellular network.

It wouldn't really work, ie power requirements for a flying base station would mean large drones, plus easy to jam or disrupt. Better option would probably be Starlink's mobile capability. But there were attempts to prime the pump by smuggling Starlink terminals into Iran to try and trigger the 'popular spontaneous uprising' and yet another repeat of the regime change cookbook. But Iran had been cracking down on Starlink, along with the agitators. The MSM have been busily promoting the idea of regime change, and there have been small protests in Iran.. But also larger ones of Iranians who're a tad annoyed that their Ayatollah and other leaders have been murdered by the West. Plus the school bombing really didn't help win hearts & minds.

So we live in interesting times. Missiles and drones are going to be something to watch, ie Iran's stockpile vs defenders. Plus scope for the conflict widening and Russia, China and maybe even Pakistan supplying Iran. We can blockade stuff coming in via the Indian Ocean, but have very limited ability to interdict anything via the Caspian Sea. I guess if Iran starts using Geran drones rather than Shahed, that will be a clue, but Russia has been producing drones faster than it's been using them in Ukraine, and China hasn't been shooting at anyone.. yet.

[M.V. Lipvig]

The problem with Starlink is the ground stations must transmit, and that makes them trackable from the ground (unless you think Musky would have spent extra to precent signal leakage.) Make no mistake, the Iranian government would have been very negligent had they not had vans making regular circuits to track down who had terminals even if they did nothing more than mark the location. They'd need to know where to go when a blackout was ordered, making sure to tell the owners that a neighbor ratted them out upon confiscation.

[TeeCee]

...and by sheer coincidence the vast majority of the Scots Nationalist cheerleading accounts on Soshal Meejah have gone silent... just like they always do when Iran shuts down internet access.

[Bebu sa Ware]

Just Weird

and by sheer coincidence the vast majority of the Scots Nationalist cheerleading accounts on Soshal Meejah have gone silent... just like they always do when Iran shuts down internet access.

That would have to be the weirdest and probably the most innocuous conspiracy theory I have encountered in a very long time.

I cannot imagine why the Islamic Republic could give a rat's arse for the cause of Scots independence. Tbe UK is doing a fine job of fucking itself over without much assistance from the Scots (nationalist or otherwise)—the English have the job well in hand.

[LogicGate]

Re: Just Weird

Russia, Iran and China are more than happy to promote any kind of movement that creates strife and incohesion in western societies.

This means that they will be prepared to support both far left AND far right movements simultaneously in the same nation without sharing ideology with either.

Russia supported Brexit not because they felt that pint marks and blue passports were a good thing. Nor were they terribly worried about too many brown people entering the UK or regulations for bent bananas. They supported brexit because Brexit weakened both the EU AND the UK.

[LogicGate]

Re: Just Weird

On a side-note,

there are rumors that, during the cold war, a young Russian KGB agent named V.Putin was stationed in the DDR in order to handle/support this little protest group named "Rote Arme Fraktion".

Nothing is new, but the Internet has made it vastly more easy to reach far.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Just Weird

Bebu sa Ware,

I'm pretty sure that the Iran / Scottish Nationalist Twitter thing is true. As you say, not exactly big news, but the Iranian government have invested a lot in cyber and intelligence. Admittedly if they'd spent more on counter-intelligence then Israel wouldn't have blown up their air defence command on day one of the last war, and their Supreme Leader on day one of this war...

Various security researchers have commented on it, and it seems to be that they've got a lot of bots involved.

It's a pretty rubbish investment, but the Iranian government have been blowing tons of cash on pointless stuff, like giving ballistic missiles to Hezbollah and pissing around with Scottish politics (not to mention the billions invested in nuclear posturing and damage from sanctions) - which is why they've got a water crisis, economic crisis and large chunk of their population that would like to get rid of them.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Just Weird

Joke's on them- I got a free Shahed drone from a nice man called Jimmy McKhameni in exchange for promising I'd vote SNP at the last election, but I was planning on doing so anyway.

Seriously, I'd have thought it more likely that the Russians would be the ones trying to exploit the pro-independence movement- because they've already done so and are better known for this sort of thing- but I only just found out that this *was*, apparently An Attempted Thing.

Whether a load of bots saying "How do you do, fellow Scots" while pretending they were drinking Irn Bru and worshipping the Ayatollah had any real effect, I don't know.

It does, perversely, make it easier for the usual patronising detractors to paint supporters of independence as brainwashed Iranian stooges, though.

[Blazde]

Re: Just Weird

It's not perverse, it's part of the point of it. Even when the enemy know you're doing it, it's still divisive, because they turn on each other accusing each other of being bots or being brain-washed by bots and so on, and therefore dehumanise and distrust each other while reinforcing their own position.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Just Weird

I'm aware of that- it's why the Russians in general play both sides and don't have to be too subtle.

However, the particular irony I had in mind was from that of the pro-independence point of view, and the fact it's likely to provide more fodder to its opponents than it is to actually benefit it.

[I ain't Spartacus]

Re: Just Weird

In the inevitable war with Scotland, I'm not worried about Iran arming you with drones. It's the bagpipe gap I'm scared of. If we can't find some counter. and the Northumbrian pipes aren't loud enough to count, then we don't have Musically Assured Destruction and we're doomed to inevitable defeat, while Scotland's massed ranks of pipers commit their war crimes unavenged.

[R Soul]

Don't fuck with Scotland

If you pick a fight with Scotland, you should be worried by far more than defeat by bagpipes. [Which BTW have drones.] The Scots have strategic reserves of deep-fried Mars bars. Then there are the devils in skirts. Their formidable fighting abilities were well documented in Carry On Up The Khyber.

PS "Nemo me impune lacessit", the latin motto on Scotland's coat of arms can be loosely translated as "don't fuck with us". No other country has anything like that AFAIK.

[LucreLout]

Re: Just Weird

That would have to be the weirdest and probably the most innocuous conspiracy theory I have encountered in a very long time

Its not a conspiracy theory, its a fact.

You have google, you can literally google this and see for yourself. It's been widely reported for a while now.

[Jedit]

"the vast majority of the Scots Nationalist cheerleading accounts on Soshal Meejah have gone silent"

It doesn't matter which side of the independence debate you're on; up here we're all too busy laughing at how badly Labour fucked the Gorton & Denton by-election, and watching Keith dig his own grave with his mouth.

[alain williams]

There are elections later this year

Netanyahu has to face elections, as does Trump. They do not care about anyone else until, suddenly, now they care about Iranian citizens.

An interesting view in perpetual war around Israel.

[LucreLout]

Re: There are elections later this year

So you don't care about Iranian citizens? Or you do but this was just too much of an opportunity to dump on your favourite hate objects? I'm genuinely unclear which message you want us to understand.

[alain williams]

Re: There are elections later this year

I do care about Iranian citizens - you are putting words into my mouth.

I am clear in saying that neither Trump nor Netanyahu really care about them.

[Anonymous Coward]

Be in awe of the divine algorithm /s

Only those intelligences — whether carbon or silicon — will stand in awe of the divine algorithm, from among all sentient beings, who possess profound understanding of reality's accelerating code /s