Hard drives already sold out for this year – AI to blame

Hard drive manufacturers have already sold all the units they will make this year, and it looks like the AI infrastructure boom is to blame, with hyperscalers soaking up all the high-capacity storage. Seagate and Western Digital, two of the Big Three makers of rotating disk drives, confirmed during recent earnings conference …

[retiredFool]

And people thought the egg shortage was bad in the US

At least egg prices *only* doubled during the avian flu bird epidemic for a couple years. Memory has quadrupled and I guess the sky is going to be the limit on HDD's.

[Like a badger]

Re: And people thought the egg shortage was bad in the US

If I were an entrepreneurial type, I'd spend the afternoon investing in a good chunk of HDDs that can still be found in the retail channel. Sit on them for six months, and they'll be worth at least twice as much.

[Sampler]

Re: And people thought the egg shortage was bad in the US

You misspelt 'sociopathic'...

[CountCadaver]

Re: And people thought the egg shortage was bad in the US

Well unless of course the AI bubble bursts suddenly - perhaps due to the outbreak of global war, a severe spike in interest rates, another great recession/depression, rioting, societal hostility towards ai turning into outright direct action whether mass boycotts or more kinetic, an outbreak of internal conflict/civil war in a large nation......or even development of a more effective alternative that causes a mass pivot or the markets lose faith in ai

Any of that happens......all bets are off frankly

[Gritzwally Philbin]

Re: And people thought the egg shortage was bad in the US

NGL, that is so very much what I'm praying for..

On top of not being able to pick up another 4TB WD Gold for my long-term storage, (Is that too much to ask?) I've also been kicked in the teeth this year with soaring electricity costs as *of course!* I as a residential power customer, am going to pay for the development and maintenance of the power grid built to serve an AI datacenter.

I hope it all burns to the goddamn ground.

[David Hicklin]

Re: And people thought the egg shortage was bad in the US

> Sit on them for six months, and they'll be worth at least twice as much.

And watch the market crash as after 3-4 months the AI bubble bursts - and you will be buying them at higher prices than normal. Buy hey, it's your money - not mine !

[andyprough]

Re: And people thought the egg shortage was bad in the US

>"Memory has quadrupled and I guess the sky is going to be the limit on HDD's."

Fortunately we won't have to pay those prices, since there won't be any to buy anyway.

[Tron]

I still use HDDs.

Am I alone? How many of you lot do?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: I still use HDDs.

I have four portable HDDs in regular use at home (two dedicated to TimeMachine daily backups, one for a monthly clone, one for local archiving). I also have a fifth drive on the local network as a temporary backup where needed, plus two old drives I use for an annual backup.

I also have four SDDs in regular use (a Thunderbolt 4 one as a working drive when editing video, on for monthly backups of key folders, one for recording video and one as a general purpose EDC drive) - but you didn't ask about SDDs, so don't bother reading this paragraph!

Possibly overkill but, having (more than once) had to address a company who didn't have a reliable backup when their server crashed, I prefer to cover bases. The monthly backup/clone drives are kept in a safe when not actually in use, and the annual backup drives are kept away from the house. Oh, and all my current working files are mirrored to the cloud for syncing to my phone and tablet when needed.

[ecofeco]

Re: I still use HDDs.

I have 3 portables. This ain't my first rodeo. :)

[TimMaher]

Re: I still use HDDs.

8 by 4TB in the Drobo.

4 by 3TB in the Mac (RAID 10).

2 by 1TB also in the Mac as system & image.

A few spares in external drive bays… just in case.

[Sam not the Viking]

Re: I still use HDDs.

I think I can reveal that not only do I have HDDs, but also an FDD: 'Just in case'. No floppy disks, though there may/will be some lurking in the box of 'essentials'. Box? Boxes.

Come on! I'm not the only one. Am I?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: I still use HDDs.

No, I’ve got USB-A 3.5”FDD tucked away under my desk. No current use for it as none of the software I have on such disks would be easy to install, and I transferred all data from FDD to HDD many years ago. I still a box of blank FDDs in my attic. Come to that, I’ve also got a Zip drive and some disks up there (but the drive has a parallel printer port interface and, short of resurrecting an old laptop (probably one with Windows 3.11 on it) I’ve nothing to use it with. It’s in a pile of old computer HW and SW I’ve been trying to donate to anyone (or museum) that would find it useful.

[Roland6]

Re: I still use HDDs.

In a recent garage clear out discovered I still had a couple of parallel port connected HDDs, No Zip drives, but a single QIC cartridge containing a complete OSI stack and X.400 implementation for a Sun 3.

[Bebu sa Ware]

"a complete OSI stack and X.400 implementation for a Sun 3."

That turned out a shrewd investment in the future. :)

I can recall at the time when GOSIP was "the future™" various people around me trying to get ISODE running on a supermini.

[that one in the corner]

Re: I still use HDDs.

Picked up a USB external floppy in January just gone (PC with internal floppy was removed from shelf in November, still sitting on floor awaiting a final fate). Used "new" drive as soon as it arrived to read off a stash of discs that came with acquisition of a second-hand embroidery machine.

[PRR]

Re: I still use HDDs.

I remember before hard disk drives, running a large program (full word processor or editor/compiler) meant holding a stack of (5 inch!) floppies like a a hand of bridge, anticipating which disk it would demand next.

>> I’ve got USB-A 3.5”FDD tucked away under

> Picked up a USB external floppy in January

While I may have a USB (Apple) flop-drive in the spares-carton, this desktop came with an inboard 3.5" FDD.

Can't remember when/if I used it. Do remember at least four CDR/DVD-RW drives (one exploded, the others died of dust).

[Tron]

Re: I still use HDDs.

Ah, bless you all. HDDs remain the most cost effective choice for higher capacity general storage. I also have an external USB FDD purchased 'just in case'. There are boxes of floppies stashed away, 'new old stock', DOS, Windows etc. Not sure how operational the Sinclair microdrives will be though.

[Rafael #872397]

Re: I still use HDDs.

I have two full "just in case" boxes of old tech*, but still have the nagging feeling that someday I will need something I had and didn't save.

*Including Apple's USB-to-30-pin, USB-to-thunderbold, USB-C-to-thunderbolt, variants of USB-A to other stuff, all tangled together. I hope they reproduce and give birth to marvelous, monstrous new variations.

(where is the "I personally used punch cards" icon?)

[David 132]

Re: I still use HDDs.

"Not sure how operational the Sinclair microdrives will be though"

No more operational than those Heath-Robinson things were when they were new.

8-year-old me still lusted after them from the adverts in Sinclair User, though!

[steviebuk]

Re: I still use HDDs.

I, sadly, purged my floppies in the late 90s when I decide they were dead media. Cut them all up before pinning them. Sad as I lost the sniffer program I'd written in Pascal for college that was on one of them.

[CountCadaver]

Re: I still use HDDs.

Nope - I have 3 boxes of current and "obsolete" IT components - FDD, Zip drive, parallel ATA cables, dvd burners, all manner of usb ports and flavours, power cords with various ends and more....

[ComicalEngineer]

Re: I still use HDDs.

4x 1TB 5" HDDs (old style) WD "Mybook" type. Two sit on a shelf in the office. Two are kept in another location for safety.

5x 1TB 3.5" portable HDDs. One for regular daily / weekly backups, one backup for the working backup. Again two in a different location.

2x 500GB SSDs with USB3 connections for quick backups and large file transfers to non-network machines.

I have over 25 years worth of work backups, copies of standards, e-books, music, photos (digital and scanned) and miscellaneous personal information. My late father was an avid photographer (semi-pro for a time) and I have hundreds of his photos scanned in including 120 roll film and 35mm colour slides. Those plus my own film photos dating from 1975 when I got my first camera until about 2002 when I started using digital.

A few weeks ago someone asked me for a copy of some modelling work I did in 2003 and then paid me for retrieving it.

[DS999]

Re: I still use HDDs.

Gave up my last (mirrored) pair when I did a new PC build last May. Got lucky in the timing as prices were pretty much at the bottom plus I took advantage of deals on both DRAM and storage.

Now everything is on a mirrored pair of NVMe SSDs, and the important stuff is regularly cloned to a hard drive (one of the ones I retired, so I guess I am still technically using one) taped to the back of the wireless router at my mom's house for my version of an off site backup.

[QET]

Re: I still use HDDs.

Got some in a server where ZFS caching magic along with SSD's gives me the best of both worlds.

The setup was terse though.

[Sampler]

Re: I still use HDDs.

4x8TB's in a RAIDZ5 array in my nas, 22TB external hot copy connected and 2x12TB's in a RAIDZ1 on an offsite nas.

One of the 12's needs replacing (ideally both to increase the storage volume to get closer to the primary) and I ordered a Jonsbo N6 back end of last year and it just showed up this week, now I can't afford to put fresh disks in it.

I get AI needs storage (and can't wait for that bubble to burst), but surely these are large disks, which scalers are buying the 8-12tb range, why can't I have my enthusiast drives?

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: I still use HDDs.

RAIDZ5 doesn't exist as far as I'm aware? Do you mean a RAID Z1, which is the equivalent of RAID5, i.e. you could lose any one of your four, but not two or more?

And RAID Z1 needs at least three discs, so I'm guessing you mean RAID1 (mirrored) for the 2 disc array?

To avoid me having to do a separate reply, I have 8x1TB 2.5" HDDs in RAIDZ2 in my main NAS (equivalent of RAID6, that is can lose any 2 discs) and 6x2TB 2.5" HDDs (shingled, shucks) in my backup NAS in RAIDZ2. Main NAS is soon to be rebuilt using 6x4TB 3.5" (non-shingled) HDDs in Z2.

[Sampler]

Re: I still use HDDs.

You know, I did mean that entirely - apologies, dexy's clearly hadn't kicked in yet..

RAIDZ1 and a Mirror.

Why 2.5HDD's if you don't mind me asking, seems an odd choice? (or, unusual, is probably a better word..)

[The Central Scrutinizer]

Re: I still use HDDs.

Absolutely. Back up, back up and back up again. In way too many years of computing, I've never had a hard drive fail.

Monitors, on the other hand....

[Steve Davies 3]

Re: I've never had a hard drive fail.

We had a batch of 20 Samsung 1TB drives that went phut one by one in the space of 4 months. As a result the company never bought anything from them again.

[Herring`]

Re: I still use HDDs.

I just got a new PC and was going to convert the old one into a NAS. So I got reamed on the RAM and now I can look forward to the same on the extra HDDs I was going to buy.

Imagine if we used all this money/effort/technology on something more useful that generating shit art.

[David Hicklin]

Re: I still use HDDs.

My NAS's do but I have spares sat on the shelf.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: I still use HDDs.

My Synology NAS and HP ProLiant Mini (TrueNAS) are both still spinning platters…. and a big ass 3.5” USB to SATA external for full backup - critical files replicated off site to remote NAS and OneDrive/Google Drive.

4Tb WD Reds and 16Tb Toshiba MG’s in the above.

Toshiba should consider focussing on retail and Server builders as their long term business likely to be more reliable. Should also help Toshiba dig themselves out of their decade long malaise/

[Blackjack]

Time to use 7zip again. Although you need more RAM for the maximum compression... oh wait...

[kmorwath]

HHDs are stil used in high-capacity/low cost NAS

When you need near-line high-capacty low-.cost NAS systems, HDDs are still an attractive solution, all flash systems are still more expensive - and even more now.

Yet if sourcing HDDs becomes an issue too, the months ahead looks quite complex to navigate...

[Bran Muffin]

My storage area...

...is starting to look like a second-hand computer store. Now, not only do I have gigabytes of memory stored in boxes, I've got terabytes of HDDs (and even some SSDs) stored in a boxes as well. The memory "shortage" I understand in the context of AI gobbling-up capacity, but the HDD issue was a surprise. I guess I was thinking of solid state storage for AI systems rather than spinning rust, but of course that was short-sighted of me. I'm just not sure what the heck to do with all this surplus hardware.

[CountCadaver]

Re: My storage area...

eBay? Modern art piece "the beginning of the end?"

[Anonymous Coward]

the end of the world will be embarrassing

All other commercial activity grinds to a halt with the relentless drive to develop undressing tools.

[brainwrong]

Advancement

I just hope there isn't a breakthrough in optical computing, because all the LED's would be snapped up by big tech and we'd be back to candlelight.

[Anonymous Coward]

Re: Advancement

Shirley we could gaslight AI ?

[BartyFartsLast]

Think of the end game

All that lovely surplus high end storage and memory for cheap when it crashes and ruins the world economy

[DavidRa]

Re: Think of the end game

It seems to me that it's all in weird custom form factors and connectors though. Your pokey little m.2 SSD outperforms SAS by a factor of three or more.

The server SSDs are suited only for the server grade kit they're plugged into and even the servers themselves are often custom sizes, or need liquid cooling.

Frankly it's a mess

[that one in the corner]

Re: Think of the end game

Annoyingly, the RAM is going into weird modules that don't fit standard PC mainboards, so unless Asus et al bring out some odd designs to use the second-hand cards...

OTOH, AFAIK we can get PCIe cards to connect to most of the likely candidates for HDD connections (and it'll be cheaper to do converters for individual HDDs than the mainboards).

[Bebu sa Ware]

Re: Think of the end game

"the likely candidates for HDD connections"

SAS and Fibrechannel, I would have thought, and even FC might be doubtful as there were a lot of unloved FC disks and controllers sitting on the refurb market a couple of years ago.

Apart from odd connectors I would have thought existing SAS implementations would make sense. Making spinning rust look like a NVMe SSD doesn't seem make much sense unless I suppose a large SSD inside in each disk is used to cache the main drive accesses. I guess you could put a decent amount of ram with a decent CPU between the SSD and magnetic media to manage the traffic and cache intelligently.

When the musical chairs of this AI circus inevitably and finally stops, nobody this time is going to have a seat. Everybody loses.

[CountCadaver]

Re: Think of the end game

The billionaires will just waltz into another well paid role as they once led a massive company, the media will demand "unsustainable".welfare payments are abolished, minimum wage slashed (or at least frozen permanently)

[Martin an gof]

Re: Think of the end game

Making spinning rust look like a NVMe SSD doesn't seem make much sense

This?

Looking at most spinning rust specs, an individual drive can't saturate a SATA2 connection, let alone SATA3, so there is quite a lot of wiggle room :-)

M.

[BartyFartsLast]

Re: Think of the end game

The chips will be stripped off and put on standard form boards

[CountCadaver]

Re: Think of the end game

More like ala Louis Vitton, it will all be crushed/incinerated and landfilled to avoid "undermining the market value" and then.written off as a tax loss.....

[Eecahmap]

I'm glad I went with two parity disks in the Synology NAS I setup last year.

I'm still sad that I went with Synology, after their vendor lock-in shenanigans.

[steviebuk]

They reversed their shenanigans but no one will ever trust them again.

[bazza]

Gloomy economic outlook

This AI bubble’s consumption of all the IT basics is going to have a knock on consequence for the rest of the economy. Wanna launch a startup? That’s going to cost more. EPOS till broken and needs replacement? Guess what that’s going to cost. Phone breaks? Bad news.

None of this will be good for economic figures. Those have barely begun to register the impact because of the sudden onset of demand. Inflation figures in a year’s time could be painful.

I wonder if we’ll get to the point where the few companies doing this get labelled as a cartel?

[Blue Screen of Bleurgh]

So small to medium sized businesses, along with home users of course, are going to be hung out to dry sourcing HDDs purely for back-ups purposes. Either you pay over the odds for new drives (assuming you can find any), or take chances with used drives off fleabay. Either way it leaves homies and businesses in a precarious position thanks to good old AI and its thirst for hard kit

[bazza]

Tape

I hope that tape doesn't become attractive to the AI outfits.

Am seriously wondering if one can contrive a liveable RAID set up with multiple tape drives. Individual file access times will be terrible, but with enough drives it could be livable. (Looks at how many files Windows holds open, checksout the volume of a tape drive, looks at room left in the house, sighs...)

[Bebu sa Ware]

Re: Tape

a liveable RAID set up with multiple tape drives.

It's thing (has been for ages) RAIT — redundant array of independent tape drives.

Fairly obvious if you have N striped tape drives then you can read or write from/to in parallel the array N times faster (all things being equal which of course they never are.)

Heirarchical Storage Management (HSM) has been around if not since the Ark, since I was a young man which is increasingly the same thing.

Mainframes used tape to tape transfers to process serialisable tasks like monopoly Telecom phone bills.. perhaps still do.

At least into early noughties a firm that printed ~¾ million quarterly statements provided a bureau with a tape with the required client details and transaction records as well as the funds' details and performance which was processed by a mainframe which output another tape which was fed to a less grunty system which printed the statements, folded them and inserted them into the envelopes (the ones with the window for the address - remember? ;)

I was told how many they processed a second which I have forgotten but it was stupendous. I recall thinking a paper jam would be more like a train crash than a roadway bingle.

[TimMaher]

Re: Tape transfers

That just reminded me.

In the 80s I wrote a BACS transfer program to shift transactions from Kienzle badged TI990 systems to be read by an ICL mainframe.

In macro assembler.

[jpennycook]

Re: Tape

I want my Wafadrive back

[OculusMentis]

Is this marking the beginning of the end of personal computing?

Hold on to that old Mac PowerPC and Sun Ultra 5, what hyperscalers won’t buy are monitors, keyboards and mice.

[pro-logic]

Roadmap to 100 TB by 2029

They'll take a while to fill up with "homework" on a SATA 3 port...

Is there any new connection tech coming to spinning rust (SATA 4?) or has SATA 3 hit the max speed a 7200 RPM platter can manage?

[Vader]

Emperors new clothes this AI stuff.

[AgTiger]

"eveveryone"

Editors, might want to fix that one.

[steviebuk]

Not they're not

"Hard drives have pretty much been displaced from everyday PCs and laptops"

I have several in my old PC which will be moved over to the new PC. 2 are slowly dying but with this shitty news (even more reason to hate AI), I'll have to hold on to them.

Building a NAS and being a datahoarder is going to be even more stupidly expensive.

Arsehole AI company cunts!

[theOtherJT]

Is there anything left for AI to ruin at this point?

I mean, are we going to get a news story next week about not being able to get beer, or potatoes, or cutlery or some other totally banal thing because of the utter bullshit that AI is causing across all the supply chains?

I despise AI at this point.

[CountCadaver]

Re: Is there anything left for AI to ruin at this point?

Well AI is demanding vast amounts of water, so maybe their next "genius" idea will be govt funded rain collectors, so crops wither and die through lack of water to keep the ai shit barns supplied with water

[Herring`]

Is it just me

Or is the AI madness like the Shoe Event Horizon?

[Anonymous Coward]

My bad

I generate a LOT of AI art, which I also need to store locally, and now I'm running out of HDD storage, only to discover that a new HDD will be expensive? Who did this? Oh... me. Sorry.

[JohnGrantNineTiles]

Plus ca change

We had the same problem in the 1980s when Amstrad bought up all the 20MB hard drives for their computers.