In other words
The "AI" crap is a huge money loser, and in order to keep the bubble going longer, there has to be a way to subsidise it.
Elon Musk on Monday revealed his space company SpaceX has acquired his AI outfit xAI, and that the two will work together to escape the surly bonds of Earthly powers by tapping the sun's enduring glow. "This marks not just the next chapter, but the next book in SpaceX and xAI's mission: scaling to make a sentient sun to …
It is transparently an attempt to pump things up isn't it. The idea that orbital AI datacentres could ever be cost competitive with terrestrial ones, let alone in three years...
Of course, he does have a proven record of solving the easiest part and then assuming the rest will solve itself (e.g. colonising Mars).
One can't deny that Musk is outstanding when it comes to vision. Unfortunately, there's a thin line between vision and hallucination. One suspects that economically viable extraterrestrial based AI is somewhere around 8.7 on the 0-10 pipedream scale of likelihood. At least with current and next decade or two technology. In say 2125, assuming humanity is still around, maybe space based AI will be ubiquitous. The question would be whether Musk can hold his empire of imagination together long for technology to catch up to vision.
If by that you mean he can disappear down the K-hole and return with hallucinations even more profound than his AI can compile. A true visionary doesn't just see the destination, they see the route - or parts of it, at least. Musk is more analogous to the Underpants Gnomes.
Bah! Old Elon still falls short of our own true Sarf London Visionary.
Daedalus on the back page of New Scientist every week not only conceived of the inconceivable but mapped out the science to get there. if only he had a spare trillion to throw at it then we would have gone further than Mars. Well Calais anyway. While we started the massive overspend and delay of HS1 and the Elon orientated solution of boring a tunnel under the channel Daedalus came up with a much simpler solution.
No need to dig just get a freezing machine to created a tunnel of ice on the seabed. It would need some quantities of refrigerant and power but would give passengers a great view (and a joy to trainspotting fish). Sadly Daedalus has passed on. Here is his New Scientist epitaph
I'll admit when I posted last night, I didn't think of the details of the financial angle beyond "keep bubble going". Then again, thinking of all the details of his self-interest financial angle required more mental bandwidth than knocking out a pithy line or two when sleep meds are taking hold.
Exactly. AI is a cash sink that hasn't produced returns, and trying to do it but in space even worse. The most logical reason for this acquisition is to prop up shares that are likely going to crash soon if things remain as they are. Also, I expect various "unforeseen" problems that he'll explain away to account for the massive losses and keep the wool firmly over the eyes of investors.
That is assuming that there *is* a logical reason for all of this. It could be that that, given his reputed drugs use, he was high as a kite, actually *thought* he had a brilliant idea and none of the sycophants around him would even try to talk him out of it.
"AI is a cash sink that hasn't produced returns,"
I respectfully beg to differ.
It's true that in terms of hard revenue AI companies are money pits. But that is NOT the only form of returns. Stocks are soaring (ka-ching!), AI tech bro's have more lucrative political power than ever (ka-ching!) and while the bust is coming, the boom is ongoing (ka-ching!)
Don't forget that the biggest profits are made during times of quick, significant change. Like the Internet boom of the late 1990s. And now. Yes, the bust is coming, but for now the boom is ongoing. So there is a lot of money being made, although it does not appear on the books of the AI companies themselves.
On paper AI is a cash sink with no RoI, but the tech bro's behind them are raking in the dosh at a rate that beggars belief.
fair enough. Yes, the people running the scam are getting rich and it'll be everyone else holding the bag one way or another when the final accounting[1] is done. In a way, it's the sort of thing that has happened countless times before but it's just so sickening to watch helplessly like some Cassandra.
[1] Yes, I know it sounds vaguely eschatological, but then again, I'm partially looking forward to the AIpocalypse.
I tried finding what percentage of SpaceX Musk had before and after the merger. If the numbers are available by search engine they are buried deep in a huge pile of useless links. I expect Musk owns a higher percentage of Xai than he does SpaceX (different sources range from 40 to 47% value but about 72% votes). The two companies had many share holders in common. By massively over valuing Xai its share holders increase their share of SpaceX at a bargain price, diluting the value of SpaceX to other investors. Some of the numbers are here. Has anyone seen the other numbers needed to test my hypothesis?
By massively over valuing Xai its share holders increase their share of SpaceX at a bargain price, diluting the value of SpaceX to other investors. Some of the numbers are here. Has anyone seen the other numbers needed to test my hypothesis?
Nope, but I suspect you're right.. Especially given the plans for an IPO of SpacX. This transaction adds the notional value of xAI to SpacX, theoretically pumping the value of that ahead of the IPO and boosting Musk's cut. It seems much the same shenanigans as when Tesla was made to buy SolarCity to bail out Musk's friends & family. Unlke Tesla, SpacX's investors might be OK with the transaction, assuming they can cash out and the market agrees with the combination & valuation.
Well, Musk is currently orbiting about thirty StarLink units per launch. Assuming similar mass, and that all the satellites work, and no failed launches and a few other dubious things, and ignoring the fact that the design for these wondrous space dwelling AI vehicles (much less the actual devices) currently doesn't exist, that looks to be about 1000000/(30*20*52.25) = 3.2 launches per week. Presumably with more powerful launch vehicles and/or smaller devices he could launch less often. Possible? I suppose. Likely? Not the way I'd bet.
He knows the whole idea of AI datacenters in orbit is a complete scam, but Wall Street and the fanboys who keep Tesla's stock bubbled up to ridiculous heights due to his bullshit promises about the future don't. So they'll eat it up and he hopes this will get him over the hump as the first on paper trillionaire.
Plus this self dealing sale at a no doubt inflated value (much like the highly inflated purchase price of Twitter when xAI bought it) will dilute other shareholders and increase his ownership percentage in SpaceX significantly.
Just wait, the next step will be SpaceX buying Tesla or the reverse. Whatever way he can screw the shareholders of each to the maximum amount and benefit himself.
As a TESCREAL believer, Musk thinks he can become immortal by transferring his consciousness into a computer. The delusion has some self consistency: he thinks he really can keep the money beyond the death of his body. He hopes that going to orbit will keep his hardware safe from vandalism by hordes of starving poor.
If this dystopian future actually becomes reality perhaps we will be saved by ransomware scammers.
As I read your comment I was thinking that this sort of thing seems more and more like a religion for tech-bro, hyper-privileged elites... then the article you link to includes people saying pretty much that.
Gebru, Torres, and others have likened TESCREAL to a secular religion due to its parallels to Christian theology and eschatology [..writers..] compared these philosophies and the ensuing techno-optimism to "any other monomaniacal faith... in which doubters are seen as enemies and beliefs are accepted without evidence".Gebru has likened the conflict between accelerationists and doomers to a "secular religion selling AGI enabled utopia and apocalypse".[12] Torres and Gebru argue that both groups use hypothetical AI-driven apocalypses and utopian futures to justify unlimited research, development, and deregulation of technology. Torres and Gebru allege that by considering only far-reaching future consequences, creating hype for unproven technology, and fear-mongering, TESCREALists distract from the impacts of technology that may adversely affect society, disproportionately harm minorities through algorithmic bias, and have a detrimental impact on the environment.
That part in bold in particular is Musk. He's argued that mankind needs to be investing its money and resources in space exploration and establishing colonies in space and other worlds, even if- and this is the important bit- that would be at the expense of keeping billions of ordinary people out of squalor.
But this is coming from the mouth of a man born into a highly-privileged background and has become orders of magnitude richer as an adult. Someone who has never known and will likely *never* know what it is to be remotely ordinary, let alone poor, and nor likely to suffer the consequences of that decision himself.
It's easy to say that when you're in that position. Ask yourself how likely it is he'd be as enthusiastic if *he* was the one having to make the sacrifice and live in squalor to fund the borderline-fantasy dreams of a spoilt multi-billionaire.
Musk is the epitome of the type of isolated-from-normal-life, socially-stunted tech bro people Register user "Andy73" put his finger on here:-
These guys have, through a combination of perseverance and luck, isolated themselves from society whilst putting themselves in positions of relative power. They've stopped being subject to normal social events (like loosing your job, worrying about retirement, being subject to small community rules etc.). There aren't many role models for that.So it's perhaps not unexpected that their attention shifts from the "small things" to "big issues". Humans like to have something to worry about, and if it's not that your neighbour's trees are blocking your light, it has to be something else. In these cases, having been told that they are influencers, leaders of men, powerful people, the worries become grander. Yet even Zuckerberg cannot stop the next pandemic, or mass social unrest. And before long, they're worrying each other about "the event", they're trying to fix society with cack-handed cod psychology like accelerationism or they're speed running government corruption. Especially in the tech world, here are a bunch of guys whose only social education is the funky sci-fi books they read whilst growing up, trying to deal with the "big questions" that you're suddenly faced with when the day to day distractions of paying the mortgage have gone away.
The highlighted part above is the one that always stuck in my head as Musk in a nutshell. Someone whose only social education was the "funky sci-fi books" he read whilst growing up.
(And one who learned all the wrong lessons from them- for example, this is a white supremacist Nazi-sympathiser, one of whose favourite books- the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy- was written by a man with an "End Apartheid" sticker on his typewriter. Though Musk missing the satire and humanity in Adams work is, again, emblematic of him all over).
Yeah, reminds me of that deeply insightful 1990 Canuck science documentary Terminal City Ricochet that developed the notion that space is perty much the answer to everything, especially junk ... and not just regular ole' space debris and brand spankin' new AI slop, but also disused household appliances (eg. from Boomtown -- the first 40 seconds illustrate, with a bonus on how brain implants are the future at 11:45).
Truly, even when off his meds, Musk just plain defines altruistic humanity-saving genius and associated unique ass smartery, no ifs, butts, or Little Saint James island of doubt about it, imho! </sarc?>
Musk certainly did. And got blanked, because he's such a cringeworthy little creep that not even the world's worst sex offenders want to associate with him.
Curious interpretation. Epstein seemed quite keen to get Musk to the island, but apparently Musk didn't go. Unlike Hoffman, who seems to be having a bit of a billionaire bitch fight with Musk on X over this. But also Musk lived in LA, a wretched hive of scum and villainy that's well known for sex parties. P.Diddler etc for more info. But curious thing about these revelations is the number of people who chose to assosciate with Epstein after his offending became known, and why him and Maxwell were the only people prosecuted.
I'm guessing you missed the e-mail where Musk was begging Epstein for an invite to the next paedo party and got a response that was transparently making excuses not to reply.
Not going to downvote you, there's a lot going on in those files and you can't assume people know everything - or want to, frankly.
...But at least I know that I am not delusional. Things like this make me wonder what Musk "knows." Does he realize that, like me, people will often not be able to follow the leaps of logic his mind makes? Or does he just care about convincing people he is right? I know I am wrong often enough to warrant caution, but then again the times I get things right out number the times I get them wrong. So I was never lucky enough to be a billionaire. But does this billionaire even know that he is crazy? I mean, here is a very brief summary of most of what he posts online:
https://xkcd.com/3201/
I'm terribly sorry, but what makes you think that Musk's mind leaps to anything on the basis of logic ?
The only reason this failure of a human being is a billionnaire is because he was in the right place at the right time, aka the start of Paypal, who's only reason to exist is the utter failure of the US banking system.
He got kicked from Paypal's board, but his shares enabled him to go on to financial heights unimagined and unworthy of him.
And here we are, with a person who has a 16 year old mind in the body of a 50+ year old man.
Attention span ? Careful, goldfish, you have some serious competention here.
Dude "self-medicates" with both prescription drugs without a prescription, and some hardcore drugs that long-term mental damage wise almost rivals crystal meth.
Plus, he's stuck himself in a feedback loop because he's surrounded himself with only bootlickers and yes-men, because they tell him what he wants to hear, not what he needs to hear (IE: plenty of "NO... why would you do that you idiot?...")
Basically replace the drugs with dementia, and he's just like a very specific president of a particular country.
I've read a bunch of science fiction, but I must have missed the one where an AI on the moon enslaves mankind.
Well, orbital datacentres were written about in <cough>1984</cough>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neuromancer#Plot
In Istanbul, the team recruits Peter Riviera, a sociopathic thief and drug addict. The trail leads Case to Wintermute, an artificial intelligence created by the eccentric Tessier-Ashpool family. The Tessier-Ashpools spend their time in rotating cryonic preservation in their home, the Villa Straylight. The Villa is located on Freeside, a cylindrical space habitat which functions as a Las Vegas-style space resort for the wealthy.
Whether Musk is emulating Riviera is up for debate. Still one of my favorite books, and could make a fun movie given it's timely. Would be expensive, and they'd need to find a good Molly.
that ketamine chews holes in the brain although a more cautious analysis might conclude the subject's gray matter was already fairly moth·eaten.
The blighter seems to be in the running as the prime contractor for Aristophanes' Nephelokokkygia (The Birds) — he would certainly be the anchor tenant.
He missed out adding, "I'm confident that..." at the start. Mind you, as he professes to know more about manufacturing than anyone else currently alive on Earth, he probably knows what he's talking about so we need to give him the benefit of the doubt.
Or more ketamine. Probably.
This whole pretext of data centers in space is just an excuse to mingle up Musk's successful (SpaceX) and non-successful (xAI) financial holdings. Everyone with half a brain knows there's no business-case for having "A.I. data centers" in space.
The risk is, however, that when xAI turns sour it will affect SpaceX as well, his only company actually making money (Tesla is being wound down so I won't count that).
But it seems in-line with Musk's current "all or nothing" mentality where he bets the company on some far-fetched wild idea such as Tesla being converted from an EV maker into a Robotaxi and household robot company.
It wouldn't surprise me in the least if several of his holdings fail and take the rest with them. Does anyone really believe his $45 billion investment in Twitter is still worth that amount or more? IMHO Twitter today is more or less worthless. But as long as he doesn't sell these losses won't be incurred.
It never was and he did his damned best to try and get out of it at first.
Except that His Business Geniussness didn't read the fine print and found himself forced to finalize the deal.
That goes a long way on explaining what his attention span is.
I remember someone much more knowledgeable than me pointing out that a vacuum doesn't suck heat very well at all, and even the modest ISS needs a whole bunch of cooling fins to radiate their heat away.
I'm sure Tesler is up another 5% on this news.
(Oh, and are we sure the Muskrat realises "Iron Sky" is not a documentary?)
Yes. Most effective cooling is evaporative cooling (hence the cooling towers for power plants). Next is convective cooling / airflow (or any other medium). Only then we get radiative cooling, which is orders of magnitude less effective.
In space we have no water we can evaporate, no air to flow past cooling fins. Data centres in space make no bloody sense at all. I don't know what he smokes, injects, sniffs, eats, but it's not good for his brain.
Radiative cooling can be better than conductive, evaporative and convective cooling - so long as you make the temperature of the hot thing *really* hot. (Efficiency of cooling the hot thing is proportional to T of the hot thing to the power 4 minus T of the cold thing to the power 4. [Both T's are in Kelvin].)
All we need to do is design silicon chips that can function whilst at least red hot..... :-)
nVidia currently uses about 10% of TMSC's capacity. Supplying 2 million x H200 to China requires nVidia to renegotiate their deal with TSMC to get enough chips. Running an H200 requires very approximately 1KW. Launching 100GW/year requires 100 million x H200. nVidia will have to book at least 500% of TMSC's capacity.
... propping up his businesses and financing one with another (debt) or getting korę debt based on promises... and everything sprinkled with "trust me bro" and "in the next X years".
it would be kinda funny to see musky empire collapse on it's own taking the owner with it...
Just gonna drop this here:
> There is a rush for AI companies to team up with space launch/satellite companies to build datacenters in space. TL;DR: It's not going to work.
https://taranis.ie/datacenters-in-space-are-a-terrible-horrible-no-good-idea/
> In the interests of clarity, I am a former NASA engineer/scientist with a PhD in space electronics. I also worked at Google for 10 years, in various parts of the company including YouTube and the bit of Cloud responsible for deploying AI capacity, so I'm quite well placed to have an opinion here.
> The short version: this is an absolutely terrible idea, and really makes zero sense whatsoever. There are multiple reasons for this, but they all amount to saying that the kind of electronics needed to make a datacenter work, particularly a datacenter deploying AI capacity in the form of GPUs and TPUs, is exactly the opposite of what works in space.
C'mon, we don't need rad hardened hardware we'll just make the datacentre walls out of multiple-meter thick lead! Have some imagination here! Starship will be able to launch exactly one wall of the DC per launch so it will only take 1,000,000 launches! Where's your sense of adventure? You realists have no sense of fun. -Musk, probably.
The latest gpu's are on a 4nm process. The smallest rad hard process i can find is 12nm.
The die area is 9 times existing die. The yield will be apalling.
Device manufacture and qualification will take a year at least.
Thermal and power needs are huge.
It's not gonna happen.
<joke> or maybe they have a secret fab in area 51</joke>
Warns of the catastrophes from using AI (as all contact with humans on Earth is lost) and that is just setting up the background for the story.
Back in Real Life, we face less subjugation by The Overmind and more bubble bursts releasing financial collapse as the way that "AI" takes its revenge for our creating such a tangled misshapen monster: I have no funds and I must scream.
Heralded now by drug-addled dreams of a Clown building on The Moon.
(Ending with wishes that one garbage media platform may pour scorn upon the owner of another: Repent, Harlequin, say the TikTok men).
So last year xAi merged with Twitter so Musk could cover up how badly his ill thought out overpriced purchase of twitter had cost. And now even xAI is being purchased by SpaceX, since clearly that was a loss making enterprise as well.
So he needed come up with a load of BS about how SpaceX and xAI are somehow on the same mission, to further distract the fan boys and investors so people wouldn't see how he isn't the genius business man he likes to make out he is.
Once the AI bubble bursts (countdown in 3, 2, 1,....), then Space X will suddenly find itself with a billion dollar lead balloon wrapped around its neck.
I dont see it surviving, the space business is not that profitable...
Musk will probably then try to sell SpaceX to the Boring Company. Crashing all of those Starships is just another way of digging a hole, right Musky?
I was just thinking about it some more. This is actually a brilliant move by Musky.
When the bubble bursts and starts bringing down ALL of the AI firms, SpaceX will be declared too important to be allowed to fail. So in will come the government to cover all of the xAI debts, and SpaceX will be good to go, and Musky will be able to proclaim his Business Genius at keeping SpaceX and xAI afloat when all the other AI firms crash.
Well played Musky, you've dumped the debts on the whole of the US population, well done... (for a given defintion of well done, of course)...
If it was a matter of national security and/or something similarly important, wouldn't the US government have the ability to take over and run SpaceX's operations separately from xAI without being forced to buy/bail out the whole thing, regardless of whether or not they were legally wedded?
They might might not choose to compensate the owners for the value of SpaceX alone, resell it or leave it under their ownership as a once-again separate company, leaving the xAI portion to go to hell.
(This assumes them exercising such powers under 'normal' circumstances, not getting into what the likes of Trump might or might not do or attempt).
(continued)
This is obviously all uninformed speculation on my part, especially as it overlaps legal, military and US national interest issues.
But I can't believe they'd simply be able- and allow themselves to be- held ransom and forced to bailout xAI to get back control of their national space programme.
Whether or not they chose to compensate or bail out the xAI portion would then be completely separate.
This would all, of course, be a legal nightmare for everyone involved, but that would have to be sorted out later.
As I suggested above in too much detail, would they, though?
It's quite likely that for a company of the strategic importance of SpaceX, the US government have the ability to take control and run it separately, dealing with the legal mess and forcing a solution later on.
"Because the drugs don't work; they just make you worse" - with apologies to 'The Verve'.
"...to make a sentient sun..." - erm, okay. How about making a car that can really self-drive? AI that isn't psychotic & a member of the Nazi party? Come back then, Elon - we'll talk about the sun-thing...